5 DAY MOISTURE TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY
The models are very complex with some great confidence in 20-25 inches of snow for Northern California (Shasta area) into some areas of southern Oregon tonight. Snow amounts will be less as you head south. Amounts along I-80 near Truckee at the highest elevations will be 9-14 by mid day Wednesday (Storm ski AM). Winds will be a major issue through most of Wednesday causing white out conditions, very high AVY danger and high elevation lift closures. Mammoth will see 6-10 inches perhaps more, but my confidence for the southern Sierra is still less.
The tricky maps have me leaning towards moderate snow for southern and central Idaho Wednesday night into Thursday (Could be very good for the southern tip of Idaho near Utah) and extension even into the Tetons (3-7) (Northern tip of moisture stream). The Northern Wasatch near Snowbasin will see moderate snowfall with the northern tip of the State in Cache County still favored. The central Wasatch (Snowbird, Alta, Brighton) of Utah will only see light snow during this period. Most of the action slowly moves into the 4 corners Friday morning wth 7500 foot snow levels. Arizona Snowbowl will do well, as well as Brian Head, and eventually Taos and Durango area mountains. Friday PM sees continuing snow over the 4 corners with a dry slot occuring after midnight. This dry slot is short lived as another bulk of moisture streams in from the south with colder air by Saturday late AM. This will bring more fluff to the dense snow during the day (Might be the better pick).
The central Wasatch will see light snow through Friday, that turns moderate Friday evening through Saturday night. The amounts will depend significantly on how far north the low pushes. Right now my estimate is steady snowfall in the range of 10-15 inches over the 2 days. This will favor resorts in the southern Wasatch like Sundance who could see higher amounts. The winds shift Northerly on Saturday night decreasing snowfall with light amounts continuing through Sunday.
Colorado shifts all the action into the Central mountains on Saturday late AM. A strong cold front drops down from the north Saturday PM through Sunday bringing a high chance of snow from the north into I-70 and most of Summit County.
Very complex chases!
Wednesday- Sierra – (11-15) strong winds! , Oregon/CA border (20 inches plus), Mount Shasta region? Ashland Oregon!
Thursday- Sierra – Less Wind with light snow continuing
Friday- Idaho Border near Utah, Arizona Sowbowl, Brian Head- Snowing, Wolf Creek PM
Saturday- Central Wasatch from Alta south- snow turns moderate, Sundance, heavier snow, Wolf Creek, Durango, Taos, snowing less dense good amounts
Sunday- Monarch, Front Range spots along I-70 with cold front passage, Snowbird- wildcard for possible snow that continues into Saturday night?
Any deviation of the low will make significant differences in amounts. Right now in Utah it looks like Price stands the chance of very heavy snow perhaps towards Provo? I am still confident in decent amounts for the central wasatch later in the storm period (Friday night/Saturday) however amounts might be spread out over several moderate events.