THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INCLUDING UTAH ARE IN SHORT TERM GAME WITH THE EAST LOOKING BETTER LONG TERM
Summary 12/3/2017 AM Report
8 inches is being reported overnight at Schweitzer in the Panhandle of Idaho. Web cams at Brundage (Not open) are up to nearly 10 inches. Heavy snow is going to break out over most of Idaho today and move into the Tetons this afternoon and overnight. I expect decent amounts for Big Sky, Red Mountain Lodge in Montana as well as the northern and central Wasatch range in Utah. Colorado only offers a chance of a respectable dump In the far north perhaps Steamboat as a wildcard. Even the N. Sierra got teased with 2-3 inches. The Tetons get 8-10 inches split between day and overnight snow.
Short Term Forecast
Most of the action in the next 24 hours will be over the Rockies. The Pacific Northwest models have decreased considerably with perhaps 2-4 inches in the cards for many mountain locations of Washington and Oregon. All eyes are focused on a quick moving cold front that will bring snow to most of the northern Rockies today and tonight.
Highlights: Central Idaho will be deep by late today (10 inches at Brundage as of 8AM), where spots closer to Sun Valley will see lighter amounts (Winds are not favorable). The Tetons get teased with 2-5 inches by closing today (Last chair may be your best bet) and another 3-6 tonight. SW winds will favor JHMR today where NW winds could see Grand Targhee sneak out a good day on Monday! Southern Montana is in the cards for 6-11 inches especially near Big Sky. The Good: Cold- Decent quality pow, light winds with high confidence on snow totals. The Bad: Snow totals will be split between daytime and nighttime snow so the dream of a double digit overnight dump may not happen.
Utah finally gets into the action late today through Monday. Models show a wide area of 7-12 inches for most of the northern Wasatch mountains tonight through Monday morning. It’s possible that areas like Beaver Mountain, Powder Mountain, and perhaps Snowbasin (Wildcard) report higher amounts in the northern Wasatch initially. NW flow on Monday morning may sneak out another 3-5 inches in the Cottonwood Canyons (Little Cottonwood favored) by noon Monday. Total snowfall in the Cottonwoods may run 12-16 inches. Park City mountains should see 5-10 inches with higher amounts on the Canyons side of PCMR (prefer NW flow) and less towards Park City proper and Deer Valley. The Good: Overnight healthy dump. The Bad: Low Tide!
Colorado is on the northern fringe of moisture with perhaps your best chance of moderate snowfall over Steamboat (4-7) with good NW orographics. Areas in the central and southern mountains will see less perhaps 2-4 inches. Its possible that Vail Pass end up on the higher side with NW flow?
Image: Total snowfall on the latest HRR moving into the Rockies (Next 18 hours only).
The West dries out with a strong high pressure ridge in place until at least mid December. The East coast shows a tease (Snow-Rain) by Thursday with models showing a possible deep and cold system by next weekend! That system has the potential to land double digits to many spots in the Northeast! Confidence in the models 7 days out is marginal however several of the runs of the ensembles are showing optimism. This is worth watching on the extended forecast.
Below: December 10th GFS ensembles showing strong ridge of high pressure in the west with cold air and snow possible for the Northeast.
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