COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO UPDATE
Here we go again! The pattern is evolving to impact southern resorts on the far western side of Colorado as we forecasted yesterday followed by a deep upslope event near Denver this afternoon and tonight. Silverton, Purgatory, and Telluride all nabbed decent amounts last night (7-12) so hopefully you chased south. The 3 models I use are all hinting at a southerly track over the front range tonight impacting areas along the Divide and East. Summit was once again teased with 3 inches last night and might get another teaser tonight.
Short Term Forecast
The GFS model is still the most bullish for Colorado tonight with 5-10 inches for spots around the Eisenhower tunnel and 4-8 inches for Summit County. The Euro which updated last night (Not quite as recent as the GFS) still takes most moisture south. The HRR (Short range high resolution model) splits the amounts and in my opinion has the best short term accuracy. The HRR does not go out as far time wise as the other models.
My take: Another round of moisture will be moving into most mountain zones of Colorado along I-70 today. Heaviest amounts will be found along the Divide as well as far western Summit near Eagle with points west into the Grand Mesa (Powderhorn). Moisture stretches south into sections of Pitkin County (Snowmass) and areas south. Significant snow is indicated on the models through Chaffee and Lake Counties (12 inches plus). Ski Cooper which I have not ridden might sneak out a decent dump so keep a heads up for today. Its a resort that I don’t usually follow so this is speculative yet hopefully it happens. Light snow will begin falling over most of central and eastern Summit Counties today (Breckenridge, Keystone, Copper).
Snow will increase along the Continental Divide tonight and favor the southern Front Range foothills (6-12). There may be a sharp cutoff of deep snow just west of Georgetown. I am on the low end bullish side for Loveland and A Basin (4-9) with less confidence further west. I suspect Summit will nab another 2-6 inches by Wednesday morning with higher amounts on the eastern flanks of the Divide. If your lucky the track will shift slightly further north putting Summit in a much better advantage. Loveland might score well if the winds stay northerly before shifting to the NE.
BELOW: HRR through 9 PM MST for Colorado (Chaffee County in the 12 inch range with Summit primarily in the light or dark blue).
The heaviest moisture will drop south from the Palmer Divide into New Mexico (12-18 inches). Northern New Mexico gets into an upslope flow putting all of the northern mountains in a snowy pattern. With upslope flow my confidence is higher with Ski Santa Fe versus Taos. The caveat: More moisture will be falling in the north so Taos will be still be in the action (3-7). Highest amounts may fall east and slightly south.
EXTENDED: Another decent storm will impact the 4 corners region of Colorado late this week and into the weekend. It has a southern focus with details on my next forecast.
PLEASE LIKE OUR FACEBOOK AND INSTAGRAM PAGE! If you’re addicted to powder and reading this forecast, please consider a donation to Powderchasers! For all donations of $50 or more you earn powder turns with Powderchasers, custom forecasts, and a swag Phunkshun Wear Balaclava! There is a new Balaclava that is in production so please be patient as it’s due to us in the next 2-3 weeks. 10% gets donated to avalanche forecast centers in the West.