Forecast

LONG RANGE FORECAST WINTER 2013/2014

Data from the National Climate Prediction Center at this point is teasing us to believe that December to January stands an equal chance of being below normal or above normal for snowfall for the Western States.  Latest model guidance suggests neither strong El Nino or LA Nina and a good bet for near normal snowfall or what weather climatologists say “Neutral pattern.” My thoughts are leaning towards a higher chance of DEEP in the Sierra and Southern Rockies especially by mid January early February. The history shows that many areas like the Wasatch and Northern Rockies can do well with both La Nina and El Nino.  Neutral may favor the Central Rockes slightly?

PRECIP FOR NOVEMBER 2013/JANUARY 2014.

The East Coast and Mid Atlantic may see near normal snowfall this winter with slightly warmer temperatures.

Temperatures in the West will stay near to above normal with the exception of the Northwest where colder temps will kick in by mid winter.  The Rockies and northern Alaska might see above normal temperatures early this winter.

As a powderchaser I have learned never to rely on early data!  As we get closer to Fall reliability increases.  This info is an early heads up for those weather gurus that insist on looking at it.  The next update will be issued in Mid July.

Powderchaser Steve

TEMPS FROM NOVEMBER 2013/JANUARY 2014

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Rating: 6.7/10 (26 votes cast)
LONG RANGE FORECAST WINTER 2013/2014, 6.7 out of 10 based on 26 ratings
Posted in Forecasts

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  1. Steve,

    Thoughts on Alta – Snowbird for March 21 – 30. Anything good on the horizon? Looking at the long term Euro and it shows a swath of moisture..Not sure though.

    • I am really liking the evening of the 24th and daytime 25th. Cold front and Westerly flow= good chance of decent snow. Most likely will be good since I am not in town on the 25th (Always happens when I am out of pocket).

  2. Steve,

    Taos is looking super deep for this weekend. I am chasing with a buddy Saturday (2/25) to Tuesday (3/3). We rented a 2 bedroom condo on the mountain so if your powder chasing adventures take you to Taos please know you have a place to crash at our pad (let me know and I can email you details).

    By the way I met you on the lift line at Blue Sky Basin earlier this season (right before Christmas). I knew I was in the right place when you showed up and the lift opened shortly thereafter!

    • I might end up there. Traveling with a buddy. Can you accommodate us tonight? Things look good for the next 3 days. I need to be slightly concerned with moisture streaming north and further west on Sunday? Wolf creek will get the deepest however Taos would be very good

      • We can’t check in till Saturday so you guys are more than welcome starting then. We are flying in this evening and staying at a motel in taos town tonight

    • CB can do well with SW flow. If the moisture gets that far north it will be very good. My confidence is 60% for 5-10 inches. Wolf and Durango will do better with southern influence. CB can sometimes do better than Telluride under SW flow. Not sure why Telluride did so good on the last storm! I would watch that POW Cam and make last minute chases.

  3. Hey Steve, I have a group of three guys with me and we’re willing to travel anywhere in the country for the deepest driest powder we can find this weekend. Can you give me your top three resorts in order. You’ll be our hero. From what I can gather I’m guessing its Colorado somewhere but I’d love you’re best pics.

    • Southern storm with SW flow pushes up to the Wasatch this weekend. Mountains in the San Juan’s are favored. However currently I am confident in moderate amounts in the Wasatch as well!

    • Sorry we left NM out since the bulk of the near term action is in Colorado. YES, NM will see snow. Heaviest will be in the NE third of the State. Santa Fe might see more? Taos gets snow primarily Sunday into Monday. Amounts could be respectable but not willing to guess just yet. Monday will be your best day to get 1st chair.

    • Good! Snow especially Friday night and then again Saturday afternoon/Sunday however by then most moisture is to the East. I think Saturday might be the best of the bunch?

  4. Will this most recent movement over the next 3-4 days bring anything but rain to PC area? I know better snow in LC canyon, but wondering even how they will fair with this front due to high temps. Any guess?

  5. Hi – do you have any insigh on how Snowbird / Alta will make out from the 13th-17th of Feb? I’m reading there will be a ridge moving in which will keep out all storms. Would appreciate your insight. Thanks!

    • Late response. Tough winter! Snow this weekend for sure but amounts will be light. Temps look cool for several days. Heavier storm likely in the 7 day extended forecast.

  6. any idea on when this crazy ridge is going to break down? any good news for northern CO…i will be at breckenridge from feb 11-18…i am being selfish, and just want some good cold snow. dont need 1000 inches. please give me some good news

  7. How is Beaver Mountain in Northern Utah looking? YOu always mention the larger corporate resorts just south of us… but The Beav often gets left out. Give some love to Utah’s best kept secret… a rad family owned resort: Beaver Mountain! Thanks for all you do!

    • We mention the Beaver often this year. In fact mentioned on my last post today and again last week. I have not been there but heard it is great.

    • Snowing with higher amounts in the northern areas. Snowbasin may get more however snow level will be high making density an issue. Southern Wasatch near snowbird should be better quality but less snow. Brighton May be a better call Colder by XMAS day and snowing at all elevations

  8. Treefrog,

    Red Lodge Mountain is good. Skied it yesterday from the top. The 9″ of new was much needed. The lower half of the mountain snow elves have been furious with the man made variety, and even without this latest dump they would have had enough to open. Half-price tickets on opening day make a great value!

    Be safe!

    Plinko

    • sorry for the late response. YES in a big way! Mammoth will do well but the moisture charts show more up north? I would think 1-2 feet a sure bet for you.

  9. Thanks for bringing attention to this gem of a place! The UP has been blasted by snow over the last several days. Indianhead and Blackjack are reporting 75″ over the last 7 days and 84″ for the season. Might be the most snow covered place in the country to date. Can’t wait to get out there!

      • Unfortunately, I’m stuck in IL, so not much to photograph…just been paying attention to snow reports while glued to resort web cams. Bohemia’s looking to open next weekend (earliest opening I can recall…they don’t make snow), so I’m planning to head up end of next month. I’ll send pics if we get pow!

  10. Boise Mtns got blasted again. Up to 18″ in last 36 hours in some places. So far Nov has been a huge month for us. Lets pray that it continues right on through April!

  11. PowderChasers

    We are planning our yearly trip, if you had to choose a state for a week in the West, which would you do? We go to Utah every year, my friends are talking about maybe changing it up to Washington. We usually go in February, but have tried march lately. Sorta like February better.

    With average conditions for February, and only 1 week, which would you choose: Washington or Utah?

    • Tough call! There really is no telling at this point. The data is showing average or slightly below average for the PNW. I love the NW and often chase from salt lake. I prefer Seattle over SLC and especially whistler. That said the odds might edge for Utah on snow. February generally is a reliable month at either spot. Book airfare to SLC and find a cheap RT flight to Seattle. This way you have the option either way. There are often very cheap fares in the winter from SLC to SEA

  12. Hows Grand targhee looking this for this week? i was supposed to head out there from San Francisco yesterday but my flight got delayed (i hope because of heavy snowfall).
    Thanks for everything you do!

  13. I’m in utah and planning on heading up to Jackson or bridged bowl for the 27th-30th. What would be the better pick? And what are the chance good for a system to roll on? Just let me know!

    • Tough call. Moderate moisture will be moving into the Wasatch on the 28th. The Tetons and southern Montana seem better on the 27th but continue to show snow on the 28th. The key is wind direction. The storm next week looks like SW flow which is good for the Tetons. Bridger Bowl does best with NW flow. I am not sure about Big Sky. Bridger got 10 inches yesterday under NW flow where Big Sky got zip. If you need to leave Utah my pick would be Jackson. This way you can chase back easily if things look better for Utah. SW flow favors Big Cottonwood and Snowbasin

  14. Wow! Almost makes me wish I lived in Washington! ALMOST! I love all my Utah snow! I can’t wait for the next pow day over the Rockies… I just have to heal fast from this dislocated elbow and I’ll be back in all that white gold. LOVE IT, LIVE IT!

    • Right now the cold air moves back into Colorado Monday night or early Tuesday AM. I am thinking the powder love will fall over Steamboat by Tuesday AM, and extending down through Winter Park, Loveland and most of Summit County during the late morning. That snow will drop south into the Eastern or central San Juan’s by Tuesday night. I think the best snow might be up north so plan on skiing on Tuesday and again perhaps Wednesday depending on timing.

  15. Steve,

    I have a refundable ticket to Spokanne March 10 – 15. Was thinking of Red, Schweitzer, Silver…Models look like wasatch would be more favorable…Thoughts on where to go?

    best
    chris

    • I would hit the Wasatch this Tuesday. The only thing is that it wont be epic due to warm temps in the past several days, but 5-10 inches of snow will be likely. I would not chase long distance for this storm but if you have to use the ticket why not. Epic days are still to come but it might wait a week or two? Late March through April usually bring more good storms. One thing lacking this year has been cold air.

  16. Hi Steve – I have two weeks of free time starting March 16th. Do you have any suggestions on where to head. Are there any long range models forecasting snow during that time? Might be a bit too early, but I thought i’d ask. Thanks!

    • March 16-18 is the tail end of our model runs. Currently they show decent powder odds over the Tetons in Wyoming as well as most of Colorado. Big Sky is in the mix with slightly less amounts. We think the Wasatch in Utah will also see snow however the trend has been higher in Wyoming and Colorado

      • Thanks a lot. Hey another question. Thinking of a trip to Europe the 1st week of April only if things look good. Do you know of any good websites for powder forecasting in that area?, in English of course.

  17. Greetings powederchaser. Have a ticket for Spokane March 10 – 15. planning idaho – Silver and Schweitzer. Ticket is refundable/changeable…..where would you suggest heading for some deep stuff? looking warm and rainy most places. How is the wasatch looking

  18. Some snow likely Sunday night in the southern sections of Montana but a quick hitter! More snow likely Wednesday but bulk of moisture could be just south

    • I can run the models in the morning as I am headed back to CO right now from UT. I know the snow levels go to 7 or 8,000 feet however Silverton is so high that of all places to be that might be the best. I seem to remember the models showing most moisture over the north? The warm air might not impact Silverton as much as other spots especially north facing. We were there a few weeks ago and it was great.

      • I sincerely appreciate the reply. Your input definitely makes me feel a little better. Look forward to seeing the models and as always, thanks for everything you do for your followers.

  19. Plan for this weekend was driving from Portland OR to Whitewater, BC skiing 2/7-2/9. After reading your forecast I’m thinking about heading towards Targhee or N Wasatch Range. Good idea or other suggestion? Can’t make it to Durango in a weekend.

    • You wont be disappointed if you hit the Wasatch of Utah or Tetons beginning this Friday through next Tuesday. Please support Powderchasers if you get powder.

  20. Any idea how the East Coast might fair in this system? I have been running the GFS/NAM models as well as NCEP QPF and still uncertain of possible total snowfall. I have a trip planned this friday-sunday to Snow Shoe, WV and was wondering if you could provide any detailed information as to what we could expect. Thanks for your time and consideration.

  21. I’m conflicted – Chase to Steamboat tomorrow and Friday, or Winterpark tomorrow steamboat friday. NOAA’s WPC is calling for the epicenter to be over Steamboat tonight into tomorrow and even thursday evening but the 7 day forecast is calling for Winterpark to get hammered tonight into tomorrow with 12-20. WHAT SHOULD I DO?!

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