ROCKIES UPDATE- WYOMING, MONTANA, UTAH, IDAHO, NEW MEXICO, COLORADO
The latest models are in agreement for significant snowfall to occur from Wyoming, Utah, Colorado and perhaps sections of Montana in the next 24 hours. The GFS is a bit more bullish than the Euro with my confidence solid for the Tetons, Wasatch and San Juan mountains of Colorado. Wildcard picks will be Crested Butte, Steamboat, Aspen, Monarch, Powderhorn, and Beaver Creek. Bridger Bowl in Montana and Brundage in Idaho also stands a good chance for 5-10 inches.
Moisture will increase in the Tetons tonight with 4-9 inches likely under SW flow. Temps are warm so densities will be heavy. Cold air makes it to the Tetons around daybreak improving quality, albeit lighter intensity. Another 3-6 inches is likely through the day Wednesday. If your lucky some light density will be found for lift openings especially if they are delayed (Delays would be good to allow some more snow to build up as temps cool). For the most part there is some concern on temperatures of this storm. Confidence for 8-13 inches is high with possibly higher amounts by late Wednesday. Snow density will be wet for the majority of the snow tonight. Lets hope the cold air makes in earlier than daybreak. Don’t expect a foot of blower as it’s not going to happen (Warm initially followed by cold). Another system is due late in the week (colder).
Below: Total snowfall through Wednesday night – Idaho, Montana, Wyoming
The Wasatch grabs wet snow tonight with SW flow. Areas in Big Cottonwood will be favored (Brighton, Solitude) initially. Other areas to consider early tomorrow would be Beaver near Logan and perhaps Snowbasin who likes SW flow (Fairly warm temps might keep moderate snow to the summit). Winds shift NW late morning with Little Cottonwood catching up by 5PM. Snow reports over the wasatch in the morning may not be noteworthy (3-7). Snow will increase during the day. Winds may be an issue with the cold front passage in the morning with exposed lifts (Snowbird Tram). Expect 5-9 inches in the northern Wasatch, 2-5- Park City, and 11-14 for the Cottonwoods (Gambling that the NW flow kicks in). Its possible that orographic snow showers continue in the Cottonwoods into Wednesday night adding to these amounts. Decent snow totals should occur in southern Utah towards Brian Head and perhaps Eagle Point.
Colorado grabs the goods Wednesday morning that favors the San Juans under SW flow (Wolf Creek) The SW flow is short lived so snow amounts at the Wolf may hold shy of 5-9 inches. Westerly winds increase after daybreak favoring Crested Butte (7-9) before switching by PM to NW. NW winds will favor areas like Aspen (6-10), Steamboat (5-10) and Powderhorn. Its possible that the Vail Valley see another decent dump (6-8) Most moisture is focussed west and south similar to our last storm. Summit should see 3-6 inches by Wednesday evening with snow showers continuing. Telluride does best with N or NW winds. Telluride could reap a quick 6-11 inches purely form the storm track. SW winds initially are not ideal. It’s a solid wildcard. Purgatory and Silverton may score a foot or more (highest amounts). Additional snowfall is likely late in the week for Colorado.
Below: Snowfall through Wednesday evening in Colorado (Western areas favored).
New Mexico will finally see snowfall in the northern mountains. I would estimate Taos nab 3-7 inches that do best later Wednesday with the passage of the cold front. Taos likes NW wind direction however moisture is a bit starved.
More snow heads to the northern Rockies late week. The Cascades get deep (Warm system) Thursday and Friday (1-2 Feet). January 17-21 looks active for the West.