Forecast

SNOVEMBER IS HERE!! 14″ OVERNIGHT AT JACKSON HOLE. POWDER ALERT FOR CALIFORNIA, WYOMING, MONTANA, WASHINGTON, OREGON, ALBERTA & BC!!

Recap:

The first two storms have played out as expected. On Monday/Tuesday, Southwest Colorado got a nice thump of snow. Telluride picked up 6”, Purgatory 5”, and 8-10” at Silverton. The rest of Colorado saw smaller amounts ranging from 1-4”(image courtesy of Purgatory Resort)

The Alberta Clipper was next up and delivered significant snow to Interior BC, Alberta, and Montana. Areas on the northern side of the cold front in Montana, like Showdown, received 10” of snow.(image courtesy of Showdown Montana)

Lookout Pass, who received 8-12″, and Montana Snowbowl also did well. Fernie and Sunshine village both received 4-5”.(image courtesy of Sunshine Village)

Many resorts, however, like Kicking Horse, are not yet reporting totals.(image courtesy of Kicking Horse)

Summary:

The third major snow event of the week is already well underway. A shortwave trough aloft is combining with moisture from the pacific resulting in heavy snow north of the aforementioned cold front, allowing the Tetons to get a head start on the snow before the strong upper level low pressure system begins to affect the NW.(image courtesy of Weatherbell)

 

Short Term Forecast:

Wyoming:

Jackson Hole picked up 14″ overnight and Grand Targhee ~10″”. You can see the deep snow at the base of Grand Targhee below.

(image courtesy of Grand Targhee)

And here is a shot from the base of Jackson Hole and the automated snotel showing the new snow from overnight.

(image courtesy of Jackson Hole)

(image courtesy of MesoWest)

The shortwave trough will continue to effect Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho before the Low pressure moves down the coast and eventually inland.While the Absorka, Wind River, and Big Horn ranges will be hit the hardest with up to 2 feet of snow, the Tetons will also do well. With W/SW flow, we expect JHMR to fare better than Grand Targhee. As the shortwave digs SW Thursday Evening/Friday Morning, precipitation will again breakout over the Tetons. Initially it will be too warm for snow in the valleys, but above 6500 feet it will snow moderately to heavily for SEVERAL DAYS. (image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits)

Right now, the snow looks to last until Sunday, with 1-2+ FEET of snow. With persistent W/SW flow, expect Jackson Hole to be on the higher end of these totals. There should be a lull in the snow on Sunday before another, similar storm begins to affect the region that could last for a few days.

Montana:

As the aforementioned shortwave moves across the region, snow will re-develop over most of the western half of Montana along and north of the cold front moving West to East throughout the day on Thursday. As moisture streams in from the Pacific over the cold air already in place, snow will intensify and be heaviest along the rocky mountain front with E flow, once again favoring Showdown, Lookout Pass, and Teton Pass. However, all resorts are now north of the cold front and should receive significant snow. This moderate to heavy snow will continue at times through Sunday morning.

Generally, another 8-16” of snow will fall across all Montana resorts by midday Sunday, including Big Sky, Bridger Bowl, Whitefish, Montana Snowbowl, Great Divide, and Blacktail. Areas along the rocky mountain front, Showdown, Lookout Pass, and Tetons Pass, as well as areas near the WY border like Red Lodge, have the best chance of meeting or exceeding the high end of the 8-16” range. These areas could see up to 2 FEET of snow. (image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits)

Idaho:

The low pressure system will begin affecting Idaho Thursday evening. Initially, snow levels will be high, around 6500 feet through Friday, before falling during the day on Saturday.

The combination of warm temps, high snow levels, and somewhat less moisture, will limit snowfall totals to 4-8” for areas like Brundage and Sun Valley. However, Schweitzer, being much farther north and therefore with cooler temps, could see 8-16” by Sunday. Idaho too will have a lull on Sunday before the next system moves in.

Washington:

After seeing some light snow today in the cascades, Washington will see more significant snow as the upper level low drops down the coast and sets up offshore.(image courtesy of Meteostar)

Snow will begin midday to Thursday afternoon and continue through Friday, with the heaviest snow occurring Thursday evening. Snow levels will be dropping as the snow gets underway, starting around 3500-4000 and lowering to 1000 feet by midday Friday. Some areas below 1000 feet could even see some snow showers on Friday.

The heaviest snow will be aimed at the central Washington cascades, with lesser amounts north. Expect 8-16” for Crystal and Stevens, and 5-10” for Mt. Baker by Friday evening. The next round of snow will begin in Washington around Saturday evening.

Oregon:

This same low pressure will bring moderate to heavy snowfall to Oregon as well from Thursday to Friday. Snow levels will be generally a little higher in the Oregon Cascades, but a general 5-10” with isolated higher amounts can be expected for Bachelor, Mount Hood, and Timberline. The next round of snow will begin Saturday evening for Oregon as well.

California:

Tahoe will finally get in on the action as an active pattern develops late Thursday and continues well into next week. The first storm for the Sierra will feature a weak Atmospheric River that will combine with the low pressure dropping down the coast from the Gulf of Alaska, beginning early late Thursday night/Friday morning.

(image courtesy of Weatherbell)

Gusty winds will accompany this system, with heavy snow for the Sierra mountains. Snow levels will be a little tricky with this event, so lake level accumulations could range anywhere from 2-6” depending on snow level.

Above 7000 feet, however, it will be a mostly snow event resulting in 1-2 FEET+ with higher amounts along the Sierra Crest where 3 FOOT totals would not be surprising. By midday Sunday, Sugar Bowl, Squaw Valley, Mt Rose, Kirkwood, and Mammoth should all have 1-2 Foot totals. All of the Tahoe resorts will get substantial base building snow, with light snow possible another storm possible on Monday and another significant storm possible Midweek.

(image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits)

Colorado/Utah:

The remnants of this big storm will eventually reach Utah and Colorado by Sunday, with light to moderate amounts. Generally 4-8” will fall but we’ll address totals again during a future update. A second round of snow is possible midweek as well.

British Columbia/Alberta:

Southern British Columbia and Alberta will see more more from Thursday to Sunday as well. Generally another 4-8” of snow with isolated higher amounts in Southeastern BC.
Fernie, Whitewater, Kimberley, Mt Baldy, and Apex have the best chances to exceed the 4-8” range. Whistler and Big White should fare pretty well also.
(image courtesy of Weatherbell)

 

Not quite as much moisture will make its way to the resorts in Alberta, but Castle Mountain and Nakiska, opening this weekend, could score 5-10”. Opening day Powder Day at Nakiska anyone? Resorts farther north like Sunshine Village, Lake Louise, and Mt. Norquay can expect another 2-5”.

Extended POW:

As mentioned above, a second strong upper level low pressure system will move down the coast and slowly inland through the PNW, similar to the event we’ve been discussing in the short term forecasts.

(image courtesy of Meteostar)

This storm will roughly begin effecting Washington and Oregon around Saturday night, Idaho and Montana Sunday night, and Wyoming, Utah, and Colorado Monday morning. This could be another moderate to heavy snow event for the areas mentioned above. California may be in the light to moderate range for this storm.

And finally, yet ANOTHER round of moderate to heavy snow could affect the Western US mid to late week. And at this point, we might as well let you know that the pattern looks to remain cool and stormy for the foreseeable future, past mid month.

(image courtesy of Weatherbell)

Powderchaser Luke – 03 NOV 2017

NEW donation program where we have partnered with Point 6 socks (Top of the line merino) for ski socks for all donations $50 or more. These socks are sweet and Powderchasers top pick ($25 value).  Please feed our hungry forecast bank here to keep our Pow Cast going.  See you on the slopes soon.

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  1. This is “impossible”, because it doesn’t “Snow” anymore, much less in May/Spring !

    Snow Fall “vanished” decades ago with the increase of Man-made-Global-Warming so this is nothing but “Flat-Earther” propaganda !!

    THE SCIENCE IS SETTLED !!!

    The Arctic Sea Ice is long gone, the Greenland Ice Glacier’s have melted, Antarctic Ice is hanging on by a thread and the U.S./European Ski Resorts closed long ago, in fact, todays Children have no idea what Snow is much less Snow Fall !!!

    In fact, the University of Colorado leads the way in debunking this kind of Propaganda so this report only “proves” how dysfunctional (Illiterate) the average American is ???

    Once again…

    THE SCIENCE IS [ SETTLED ] and it’s not a matter of if but when this kind of “Speech” will finally be silenced (Impeached)!

    This has been brought to you by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) @ the University of Colorado

    • Science has struggled to explain fully why an ice age occurs every 100,000 years. SO THE SCIENCE ISN’T SETTLED (screaming never settled any Science)

      Glacial periods last tens of thousands of years. Temperatures are much colder, and ice covers more of the planet.

      On the other hand, interglacial periods last only a few thousand years and the climate conditions are similar to those on Earth today. We are in an interglacial period right now. It began at the end of the last glacial period, about 10,000 years ago.

  2. Heading to Park City Feb 15th-22nd .. will be doing a couple of backcountry days earning my turns in the cottonwoods but mostly at the resorts with the fam. Been seeing mixed reports of rain during that time period. What do you think? Thanks!

    • Your getting the goods to some extent. Small system due for the 16th and another better shot of moisture 19th through the 20th! These systems wont be real cold but “Cold enough” for all snow on the mountains. Colder air moves in late on the 20th into the 21st with low land snow near SLC (Tail end of the storm). If you post on Powderchasers forums we can help you further. Please feed our powder bank on the website! PCS

  3. Steve, do you know of a Canada specific Powderchaser type website? With this warmer weather hovering over the entire US I am sure that some of these more northern (US) storms have to be bleeding over into British Columbia, with more ideal colder temperatures. Any chance you can mention the Powder Highway mountains when the rest of the US is getting less desirable “cream cheese”?

    • Not really. I work for Opensnow.com as well (THe Chase) and believe there is a section for Whistler. It will cool down this weekend. Can you post on the forums on the homepage and I can respond with more details. Canada is cooler but it’s not blower.

  4. We were down in Calfornia late last week and into the weekend. After getting shut out by wind closers as you predicted, we packed up and moved to SLC. Yesterday at Snowbird was awesome! Today should be even better if they’re able to run the tram. Anyhow, I’ve been keeping an eye on NOAA’s forecast for Baker and it looks insane. Are you guys still up that way? Do you think there is any chance they’ll actually be opertaing lifts by tomorrow, or even this weekend?

    • It’s still a ways out. The 10th looks very good for the Tetons, sierra, sun valley (deep friday Perhaps Saturday). Colorado or utah Saturday or Sunday but lower confidence due to 7 days out. Please donate on our homepage to feed our powder jar

      • Wednesday looks good for Tuesday night snow as well
        As Monday night. Thursday not as good. Late week looks Good Friday to Saturday next week but Teton’s and sun valley might be better. Please donate on powderchasers if possible or did you already? We provide custom chase plans for any donations of $50 or more being a not for profit site currently. PCS

  5. I hope it’s ok to share this story here since your recent Powder Alerts have featured Squaw Valley/Sierras and the huge dumps the last 2 to 3 weeks. I thought it was appropriate to honor Joe Zuiches from Squaw Valley who passed away this morning during avalanche control activities. Joe was a ski patrolman/powder chaser that looked after all of us in some way from before first tram to post closing while sharing his love of snow that we all seek. Please remember that the Ski Patrol everywhere is a gift that keeps giving..

    http://mynews4.com/news/local/squaw-valley-ski-patoller-dies-in-avalanche-resort-closed

    • I agree and planned to do it! perhaps I include it in a future post as terrible tragedy like that we will never forget! Stay tuned and we will write something up. PCS

  6. Powderchaser Steve.. You nailed it.. I was there Thurs for the opening of KT-22 too.. Untouched but heavy.. Not much open that day typical Squaw recently. Seems they are worried about opening lifts even with sub 20mph winds because of the different high temps/ layers of snow. But that shouldn’t affect most of their lifts. They are overwhelmed again with now 5 feet in last 4 days. Jackson has been my home hill for last 35 yrs and have skied Sierras for 45 yrs but I still prefer 0 degrees and less light fluff(10″-16″) than huge 30 degrees dump of Sierra Cement. Not all pow is created equal but any pow is better than groomers.. Love moguls.. No disrespect to snowcat crews.. That’s why we chase!! A fun time had by all.

    • WE agree 100%. I was just noticing that. I am going to issue a special post on FB related to this. My expectation is 9-13 inches mainly Sunday PM through mid morning Monday. Powderchaser Steve

      • right on man! Newbie to your site but I like the forecast layout and the guest/employee interaction. Once the weather pattern changes I would love some updates on Montana weather (other than big sky), most sites give the 406 very little attention.
        Powder gas $ coming your way! Cheers & keep up the good work!

  7. Last year’s plan turned into this year’s trip! Wifey and I are headed to Bozeman / Bridger Bowl Tuesday January 24 through Saturday January 28; any good news for some dumps there?

    • Darn! Darn! The ridge settles in next week for the entire West so other than great skiing at those resorts, and atmosphere I cant put waist deep on your skis. I wish I had the power to zip a foot of pow your way. Hopefully the models have it wrong but I am not optimistic. Try some new activities in MT? Fat biking? Dog Sledding? enjoy the terrain regardless of pow?

      PCS

  8. I’m heading out to Big Sky also for Super Bowl week and hoping to see some of these big dumps head their way. How’s it looking for Southern Montana?

    • See my response below to another question I just answered on Big Sky. Not good for the next 14 days except 6 inches late this week. beyond the 14 day period anything can change so lets hope that it shifts back after the 1st week of February.

      We work on donations if you need custom forecasts or feel like throwing the powder gas our way. PCS

  9. What’s up with Big Sky this year? When will the jet stream rise? I am going for Mardi Gras and conditions aren’t all too good. Hoping for the best though.

    • They had such a good start! Big Sky has lots to offer even if you don’t get the POW. You wont’ remember anything after Mardi Gras anyway right? I don’t see any big dumps in the west after this next cycle that will last 7 days but only skim Big Sky with up to 6 inches expected late this week. Have fun in MT and let us know if you need a custom forecast. We work on donations. Thanks

    • High pressure starts on the 25th and may last for at least a week that we can see. That might not fare well for you but lets hope it looks more optimistic for the longer range. I see high pressure until at least February 2nd currently which is as far as the ensembles show currently.

    • I am going to look more closely on Friday! My take at this point is to stay away from areas that may get several feet of snow including Mammoth due to not opening upper terrain. Smaller resorts may offer more opportunity to mitigate AVY dangers like Homewood, Alpine Meadows or perhaps even the KT 22 chair at Squaw (Lower mountain but great terrain if open). I am debating a chase to the Tetons this Sunday night as 2-3 feet is likely there and resorts there especially Grand Targhee are more likely to open. More later! Hope that helps.

  10. I have pesos in Mammoth Lakes for Sunday Monday–Looks like RAIN on all forecasts for Sunday! Think I should I move to Monday Tuesday?

    • Just saw this! Powder is great for wide open terrain with little or no crowds. A bit low angle when compared to other resorts. The cat skiing is much better (around $20 per run) but the runs are short. Great place just depends what you are looking for.

  11. “My confidence is extremely high for the Oregon Cascades (Thursday/Friday), Tetons of Wyoming (Get your snorkels out), Central Idaho (Sun Valley, Brundage)…”

    Why you be dissin on Bogus Basin? If your confidence is high for Brundage then it should be equally as high for Bogus. They open for the season on Sat, just like Brundage. Both have only announced beginner lift openings so far but betting that gets stepped up tomorrow once the dumpage is in full swing.

    Loving La Nina!

    • I don’t know Bogus Basin as an area I have not explored. I would never diss any resort as rarely there is pessimisim. All resorts with new snow are good in my books 🙂 Tell me more about Bogus.

      • Most riders don’t know Bogus and we like it that way. In short… best terrain in southern Idaho, very affordable lift passes, conveniently close to Boise. Biggest shortcoming is snow amounts and the relatively low elevation.

        Tell ya what, next time you’re making a chase this way hit me with an email and I’ll give you a personal tour of our gem.

  12. Best place to hit Dec 5th to get some powder? Was thinking the Oregon Cascades (Mount Hood, Timberline) any suggestions. Going to ride Dec 4 to 6 so looking for best accumulation on Sunday Dec 4th to hit Monday and Tuesday.

    • Hey BHD, where are you chasing from? I think you might be making the right call given the amount of base that Mt. Hood has. Could be great on Monday considering it would be a Monday without the weekend warriors a lot of new snow, and really cold temperatures. Possibly new terrain openings, which could mean deepness, poor snow coverage, or both. These are the lowest temps I have ever seen forecasted for Oregon. Grand Targhee Resort in Driggs, Idaho an hour from Jackson could be real deep by Monday morning as well. Jackson Hole Mountain Resort still needs more base given it is a steeper mountain than Grand Targhee. Is there something more appealing with Timberline compared to Mt. Hood Meadows this time of year? I have seen some great powder footage from Mt. Hood Meadows this season.

    • Initially 8000 feet under SW flow (Snowing pretty well on Monday in many areas up high). The snow level drops Monday night and Tuesday to 5500 however moisture is weaning. Total snow now for the Cottonwoods just tweaked higher to 6-10 inches in our books.

  13. Damn!! I totally planned an itinerary around this post from April 6-10. Shame on me for not connecting the dots! Thank goodness I didn’t prepay for the Hotel

    We’re here in Santa Barbara, CA and ready to take off from Apr 6-10….PC what might you suggest for where we could reroute for first time Powder seekers. I’ve never experienced the pow-goods yet, and was stoked to find your alerts/site here. Utmost goal for this trip, powder and being thick in the storm of it.

    Mammoth? Snowbird? Whistler? Snowmass/Aspen/Vail/Breckenridge?

    • DARN. So sorry about that. The next snow we see is monday-Wednesday over the Cascades. Snow levels will be above the base levels but lower to the bases late Tuesday. Might see a foot of wet snow on the upper peaks. After that I don’t see much until next weekend when I think you want to travel? Snow returns from the south pushing into the Sierra with 9,000 foot snow levels (Rain at the base). That storm pushes over the southern mountains of Colorado by next weekend as well (Sat or Sun). Warm air will bring high density snow but with higher elevations might score some powder. Wolf Creek if they are still open would be an early guess right now (High elevation). As we get closer please repost to me and I can narrow it down for you.

  14. So I am either super stoked or this April Fool’s cuts a little too deep…

    For the sake of my mind, please tell me if this an April Fool’s… If it is, then it doesn’t hurt to ask. If it isn’t, and we don’t go, then that would be terrible.

  15. Looking to dodge out of work- ?Where to go next Wednesday (27th)through Friday/Saturday? Utah, CO or elsewhere? Just got back from CO and had great POW.

  16. Hey guys,

    excited about the storms rolling in the west!!

    What is your opinion about the 2 storms this coming to the Sierra in the next days, do you think Mammoth and Tahoe will have similar amounts or Tahoe will do much better?

    Thanks a lot!!!

  17. Last posting. We have a one bedroom villa at Westgate Park City resort and Spa for November 29 – December 6th $400 for the week. Going rate is $1600 for the week. feel free to email me if you are interested. Should be awesome snow in Alta, Bird and Solitude

    chris@dubia.me

  18. Still not takers for our place at the Westgate Park City resort and Spa for November 29 – December 6th. Will lower the price to $400. Conditions should be good in the Park City area and great in Alta and Snowbird area. South facing aspects look to favor deeper.

  19. Anyone who is interested – have a 1 bedroom villa at the Westgate Park City resort and Spa for November 29 – December 6th. Snow should still be fantastic still. Offering it for $500 – goes for $1600.

    Feel free to email me if you’re interested. chrisatdubiadotme

  20. Photo of base area with snow on picnic tables is not Alpental, it’s SILVER FIR, (formerly Summit East, formerly Pacwest). Alpental is to the north and about 2500 vertical feet higher.

  21. Steve,

    Thoughts on Alta – Snowbird for March 21 – 30. Anything good on the horizon? Looking at the long term Euro and it shows a swath of moisture..Not sure though.

    • I am really liking the evening of the 24th and daytime 25th. Cold front and Westerly flow= good chance of decent snow. Most likely will be good since I am not in town on the 25th (Always happens when I am out of pocket).

  22. Steve,

    Taos is looking super deep for this weekend. I am chasing with a buddy Saturday (2/25) to Tuesday (3/3). We rented a 2 bedroom condo on the mountain so if your powder chasing adventures take you to Taos please know you have a place to crash at our pad (let me know and I can email you details).

    By the way I met you on the lift line at Blue Sky Basin earlier this season (right before Christmas). I knew I was in the right place when you showed up and the lift opened shortly thereafter!

    • I might end up there. Traveling with a buddy. Can you accommodate us tonight? Things look good for the next 3 days. I need to be slightly concerned with moisture streaming north and further west on Sunday? Wolf creek will get the deepest however Taos would be very good

      • We can’t check in till Saturday so you guys are more than welcome starting then. We are flying in this evening and staying at a motel in taos town tonight

    • CB can do well with SW flow. If the moisture gets that far north it will be very good. My confidence is 60% for 5-10 inches. Wolf and Durango will do better with southern influence. CB can sometimes do better than Telluride under SW flow. Not sure why Telluride did so good on the last storm! I would watch that POW Cam and make last minute chases.

  23. Hey Steve, I have a group of three guys with me and we’re willing to travel anywhere in the country for the deepest driest powder we can find this weekend. Can you give me your top three resorts in order. You’ll be our hero. From what I can gather I’m guessing its Colorado somewhere but I’d love you’re best pics.

    • Southern storm with SW flow pushes up to the Wasatch this weekend. Mountains in the San Juan’s are favored. However currently I am confident in moderate amounts in the Wasatch as well!

    • Sorry we left NM out since the bulk of the near term action is in Colorado. YES, NM will see snow. Heaviest will be in the NE third of the State. Santa Fe might see more? Taos gets snow primarily Sunday into Monday. Amounts could be respectable but not willing to guess just yet. Monday will be your best day to get 1st chair.

    • Good! Snow especially Friday night and then again Saturday afternoon/Sunday however by then most moisture is to the East. I think Saturday might be the best of the bunch?

  24. Will this most recent movement over the next 3-4 days bring anything but rain to PC area? I know better snow in LC canyon, but wondering even how they will fair with this front due to high temps. Any guess?

  25. Hi – do you have any insigh on how Snowbird / Alta will make out from the 13th-17th of Feb? I’m reading there will be a ridge moving in which will keep out all storms. Would appreciate your insight. Thanks!

    • Late response. Tough winter! Snow this weekend for sure but amounts will be light. Temps look cool for several days. Heavier storm likely in the 7 day extended forecast.

  26. any idea on when this crazy ridge is going to break down? any good news for northern CO…i will be at breckenridge from feb 11-18…i am being selfish, and just want some good cold snow. dont need 1000 inches. please give me some good news

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