14 DAY POWDER FORECAST- SPECIAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM SANDY

Saturday October 27, 2012

Currently it is still snowing in Northern Montana, Idaho and along the Canadian border (Rogers Pass) where 4-8 inches of snow are likely today however the bigger news is the recap from last week! Deepness was welcomed in both the Northern Sierra, Wasatch, Tetons (Highest elevations only), and to a lesser extent areas in Colorado from I-70 and North (Beaver Creek, Vail, Steamboat). The solid winners from last week were Squaw Valley in CA, and Powder Mountain in Northern Utah where nearly 3 feet or more snow brought early season face shots to those that hiked for it!  The week ahead looks very wet for the Northwest with primarily rain up to 7,000 feet  with some lowering of the snow levels by Thursday/Friday (Mid Mountain snow possible). This moisture will migrate into the Sierra by this Wednesday/Thursday with a mix of rain/snow at the bases and a quick shot of 5-10 inches at higher elevations (Good for base building).  Don’t expect the euphoria of last week however you might get it again in our long range forecast below.

The Wasatch and Tetons should see light dense snow by Thursday/Friday of this week eventually impacting northern Colorado by Saturday. Amounts will be on the light side.

LONG TERM WEEK 2

The week of November 5th-12th looks more exciting as  moisture continues in the Northwest, and northern tip of California with 5-6,000 foot snow levels.  Cold air drops south by November 7th which appears to set us up for some moderate to heavy snow over the Northwest, Northern Rockies, and even the Wasatch late in the week.  The Sierra remains on the southern edge of the moisture with light to moderate precipitation possible. Colder air filters down into the Sierra late in the week and heavier dumpage is possible in the November 10-11 time-frame.  Remember that confidence in models this far out is only 30% but I like to stay optimistic!

MY TAKE ON TROPICAL STORM SANDY:

I ran the weather models again this morning and all odds point towards a very dangerous storm due primarily from the long duration rainfall, moderate to occasionally strong winds and abnormally high tides. The fact that the trees are still fully leaved, and with a solid 2-3 days of rainfall (4-8 inches of rain) and even 40-50 mile per hour sustained gusts will produce severe power outages that will last for many days. Rain will begin to impact the Mid Atlantic Corridor on Sunday and the low pressure will make landfall on Monday night over Central/Northern New Jersey/Deleware. The low will proceed inland through PA, and eventually North through New England Tuesday-Thursday. The highest impacts will be along the Coast in Delaware, New Jersey, PA, and areas just south of NYC.   When Sandy turns north towards New England much of the energy will be weakened however moderate rain and wind will still impact areas from Rhode island into Maine.  Ski areas such as Snowshoe and Cannon Valley will see 1-2 feet of wet snow Sunday night through Tuesday!  Considering the average snowfall for Snowshoe WV ski is 180 inches per season this will put them ahead of even some areas of the West!  Unfortunately for skiers in New England the air will be too warm for snow. Wouldn’t we like to dream that this 4-8 inches of rain translated into 40-80 inches of snow!  Perhaps we can talk about this in January! West Virgina might be talking about it on Tuesday!

Enjoy the fresh powder from last week in the West!

Powderchaser Steve

 

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      • Sunday is looking like the better day to me. Looks like most of the snow will be falling after 11pm. Baker will most likely get the most at first. Then wherever the convergence zone hits will be better Sunday so Alpental or Stevens. I happen to like Alpental a lot more so I will probably be there.

  9. FYI, Wolf Creek isn’t “closed”. The lifts aren’t running and the base facilities aren’t available, but the hill is still there and there will be fresh snow. It’s public land and uphill traffic is always allowed. Real powderchasers shouldn’t mind earning their turns. Some of my best days at WC have been after the lifts have closed and it’s me and a few friends w/ the whole place to ourselves.

  10. FYI, Targhee had some serious dumpage Sat. and is getting hammered today. Monday is going to be awesome so if your in the neighborhood get here early for first tracks.

  12. just donated and have loved the site this season. question: is it worth heading down to SLC tonight(sunday) from Jackson Hole for Monday/Tuesday to chase and then moving eastward into CO for Tuesday/ Wednesday.

    Looks like San Juans and Front Range are the best. Any options to ski the San Juans..Wolf Creek is closed..Telluride closed..love to ski Telluride too bad. Silverton is booked out until late next week.
    Any feedback on cat skiing in Sanjuans possibly..Tuesday/ Wednesday looks like WP could be fun!

    • I am chasing to Utah for a moderate storm day Monday. I then will head to CO but think the front range is best. Monarch might do well Monday night? Breckenridge also? I think it is worth the chase. I booked a 115 flight back to CO for Monday PM. I have 3 chase cars

    • THE following weekend looks unsettled for Colorado and showing more storms for the northern Rockies. The Sierra looks more unsettled by the middle of that week

  15. Hey love the site. I am planning a school ski trip to Wolf Creek this weekend and was wondering if it is a good choice for some good snow? My options are either NM or Southern Colorado. Hows the snow looking? Thanks!

    • Not much chance of much powder, perhaps a few inches Saturday night with some weak ripples moving through. Expect warm spring like conditions. They have a great base there!

    • Some moisture is noted on the 10th so you might have some powder on the 11th but nothing impressive at this point. High pressure possible after that. Models change that far out!

    • models are active showing light to perhaps moderate snow 4/7 and 4/8. They then bring in a larger system on the 8th and 9th however don’t pinpoint location well. The flow might favor Colorado but if I had to guess it looks likely for snow at the Bird

  21. What looks like a better bet for next weekend Utah or Tetons? Looking at Snowbird or Grand Targhee. Targhee looks borderline for snow and rain based on NOAA. But lots of precipitation.

  22. In Whistler now – very warm spring conditions. Looking to chase next Wednesday to Sunday (April 3 to 7 or 8). Would be ideal to stay in Canada but not ruling out US. Once you know where to head drop me a line. Thanks.

    • Hi Drewsers:

      you might be in luck! Looks like warm moisture arrives on the 6th but a cold front blasts right through Whistler on the 7th so lower snow densities likely late in the storm. Might be deep? Lets hope the models hold onto this solution.

      • Yes – let’s hope for that. Any thoughts on something for earlier in the week – like 3rd to 4th or 5th – I heard something about snow in the interior forecast – will then return to Whistler around the 7th if the model holds up.

    • Not a wash out! You will likely see some scattered rain showers in town primarily in the PM and snow showers above mid mountain. The snow will be soft and in many ways very good especially high up.

    • That is an open ended question? Powder can be favored in the northern wasatch such as Snowbasin and Powder Mountain, Park City or the Canyons under Southerly flow (Canyons does well with NW flow also), or Alta, Snowbird, Brighton, Solitude under NW flow. Winds make all the difference (direction). Generally the most snow falls in little and Big Cottonwood Canyon but not always!

    • The models show moisture over that area on early in that period you will be there. Might be warm so possible snow high and mix down low. Cold air is lacking.

  27. Hi

    My family are coming over from the UK and we are headed to Whistler on Sun 1 Apr to Thurs 5 April. Praying for precipitation! What’s our chances of some snow there during that time?

    Thanks for your time, love the site.

    Cheers
    Muffback

    • The conditions at Whistler are fantastic right now. Unfortunately, little chance of deep powder. Perhaps some snow on the 4th or 5th with a better shot on the 7th.

  28. Hi guys, love your work I must donate. I am currently in Santa Fe, NM. Will be heading North to BC over the next couple of weeks and would love to chase powder on our way back. Can hit anywhere from California through to Colorado. Any suggestion? Thank you in advance much appreciated.

    • I just ran the modela and things look VERY active on day 7 It looks like BC, interior especially towards Revel, and inland. This week does not look active but next will be. The pattern might continue for several days

  29. Hi guys, love your work must donate. I am currently in Santa Fe, NM heading North eventually to end up in BC. However, over the next two weeks can you recommend any ranges that may have a better chance of a bit of pow. Can pretty much get anywhere through the sates between us and BC. Any help much appreciated. Thanks

  30. Yesterday was a decent surprise pow day at Breck with 16″ over two days and lots of deepness in our favorite stashes with relatively few spring gapers, er, breakers, on the mountain. Definitely knee-thigh deep in some locations. Heading out again today in search of stashes.

    • There is some precip on the northwest coast above Whistler Tuesday and Wednesday that does not make it to the interior. Whistler and BC get very active towards the end of the week looking light to moderate but perhaps heavy by late next weekend

    • See below comment on question similar to yours. Not sure what options you have at this point but will certainly issue a statement if anything changes

  37. Steve,

    It’s noon at Mt. Baker and its still basically light rain at the base, and even the top is wet and heavy. What is your confidence that the temps will drop in time to have good pow for tomorrow? How was Crystal skiing today? Would
    that be a better choice for tomorrow?

    I sent you something the other day via paypal to say thanks for the great site. I just registered, but I’ve been using it since 2011.

  39. Hi. We’re hunting for pow next week, March 24-28th coming from Portland, OR. What are your thoughts about Targhee, Big Sky, or eastern BC? Thanks!

    • HMMM? The models show light snow the weekend you arrive over tht Tetons and a distinct high pressure for Monday-Wednesday. On Tuesday more moisture comes into the NW and moves into the Sierra Wednesday/Thursday. The models show that moisture extending up into Eastern BC, and the NW and eventually into the Tetons on Thursday or Friday. It is not a typical Westerly flow. Almost Southerly. If I had to guess, perhaps think about BC as we get more accurate data on the models. I think mid next week could be active. I am not confident for Targhee until perhaps Friday

  40. I have next week (March 23-31) off and hoping to find some new snow. Driving from Denver, and willing go anywhere within an 8-10 hour driving radius (Taos, Wolf Creek, Utah, Jackson, Montana….) Any best bets? Thanks so much!!

    • Right now the mountains West of Denver should see snow showers all weekend (Light to moderate amounts). High pressue settles in for the early week and most of the activity might be in the Sierra by Wednesday (Your week) and extending into the Tetons by late week. I think there is a good chance of a decent mid to late week storm favoring the north. Please check back by Friday this week (Re post) as it might be more clear to me. Models change drastically in anything more than 7 days out.

  41. I know it’s a longer time frame oubut I was wondering what you saw on your radar for the last weekend in March for West Virginia, particularly SnowShoe and surrounding areas? How much inn terms of snow accumulations and cold temps? (March 29-31) BTW, you were spot on for my Utah trip this past March 7-11! Thanks

    • You are one of my first East Coast questions! WOW! honestly you might be on to something really good. I see lots of moisture at the tail end of the month 29, 30, 31 but perhaps deeper storm on April 1st! Not an April Fools Joke! It acually looks cold? Is that possible? Please donate if I am remotely on again for you.

      • While in UT, 12-15″ was recorded over the whole trip @ Brighton. I am actually based out of NC and just a traveler. Took a few weather classes back at UNCW. Hoping WV gets some freshies the last weekend in March. Keep me Posted with update. Ill be sure to donate!

    • The models show the deepest moisture now streaming along the Coast. My prediction is 7-12 in the Mt Washington Valley. Definate snow, moderate to heavy but might not be the 2 feet forecasted? We like Wednesday as a powder day and Tuesday as a storm ski day. There will be snow flying there Tuesday morning and a dry slot by afternoon. Snow picks back up Tuesday night into Wednesday so both days might be good to chase. Please let us know how you make out and make a donation if you can?

  43. Checking back in for the Jackson Hole forecast for 23rd – 28th of March. If it isn’t looking good for the Teton area for that week, where else would you recommend?

    • The Northwest will be more active however might be higher snow levels (Warmer). The Tetons should pick up moderate snowfall on the 24th, light snowfall on 26,27 and perhaps heavier snowfall on the 29th. Does not look epic but not bad either! You will have powder and at this time of year you gamble temperatures and amounts.

  44. Steve, what are you seeing for the very end of March for the Northwest/Interior BC. Will that pesky ridge develop resulting mild weather or might we still have a good cold weather flow? Thanks for guidance.Its going to be my last chance for this season :(

    • The models look very moist from the 24th through the 29th. Might be relatively high snow levels at this point but moisture is certain. This week looks even wetter with heavy snow/rain Tuesday night and Wednesday (More in the Cascades than BC) but more snow in BC by next weekend.

  45. Hi fellow snow sliders,I am heading out of Southeastern WA next Monday late afternoon and looking to find some freshies before I need to return late on the 23rd. I know that the Cascades are getting hit right now, with another wave My original plan was to chase pillows up in interior BC since that is only a 6 hr drive for me and I’ve already gotten canadian dollars. (Baker is a 6 hr drive too, 3.5 to Alpental, 4 to Steven’s, but I’d like to find the best conditions and settle there) I loved Whitewater last year and would like to get to Red or Revelstoke too. I’ve heard they got some serious rain (along with everywhere else) and avie danger is quite high. I tend to ski storm days inbounds and bluebird days backcountry. Right now, if Baker is lining up for a crazy good week, I might do that, but BC is the same distance and super fun. Thanks for any advice, Tom

      • I am flying out to Seattle on Tuesday. My plan is to stay in the NW Cascades. I believe that Crystal will see the heaviest snow on Wednesday but with 4,000 foot snow levels making it heavy (Not epic). It might turn cold by noon so perhaps by 3PM faceshots. All mountains will get 5-10 more cold snow Wednesday night with Baker and Stevens favored. Convergenze zone might dump another 15 inches over Stevens Pass for Thursday. Baker could see 2-3 feet in the next 4 days. Interior gets snow but the models look warm there too. I dont think they will get as much? The low is in North Vancouver and edges south along the coast. I could be wrong! My expertiese is the Rockies but I am getting better at the NW.

    • We see some snow on the 24th in Park City and again possible on the 29th. The temperatures have been warmer than average so once we get closer you might have to chase to some higher elevations for the deepest.

  47. Hey Steve,
    Snowforecast.com is calling for a second storm Thurs/Fri in the Sierras after the Tues dump….does that make any sense to you? Sorry about your booboo….. ;(

    • No. the system in CA will produce moderate amounts from Tuesday night through Thursday. The lingering effect Wednesday evening and Thursday is likely, but Friday goes to high pressure. My early guess is 6-10 inches.

    • Too early to say? I don’t think the moisture will be in Colorado until Thursday PM through Friday. Not a huge system but certainly a freshening. Might not hit the powder alert criteria of 12 inches or more?

  49. I like this weekend! Sunday and Monday have decent cold air, and most likely 7-9 inches or more. Not a huge storm but a good blast of winter like conditions. Most moisture stays over Wyoming and Montana versus the Wasatch.