The atmosphere heading into winter
A strengthening El Niño is the main driver heading into the 2026–27 North American ski season. Unusually warm water in the central and eastern tropical Pacific is shifting tropical thunderstorms and reorganizing the winds above them. That influence travels downstream, changing the jet stream that delivers our winter storms. NOAA’s August outlook assigns a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event this fall and winter. The World Meteorological Organization’s September 3 update reinforces that expectation.
The broad setup favors an extended Pacific jet, an active southern storm track, and a milder northern tier. That gives California and the Southwest the clearest moisture upside. The inland Northwest has a less favorable setup. But “strong El Niño” does not simply mean “California buried, Northwest dry.”
During the biggest events, the wet pattern can reach considerably farther north along the coast than the familiar El Niño maps suggest. NOAA’s current seasonal discussion explicitly accounts for that possibility.
Timing matters, too. The strongest southern influence is expected during the core and later winter, rather than necessarily at opening day. That is a reason to remain patient with a slow start—not a promise that December will disappoint or February will deliver. Seasonal guidance cannot identify the best powder week months ahead.
What about the alphabet soup? The PNA describes a North Pacific–North American pressure pattern partly influenced by El Niño; it is not an independent second vote. The PDO summarizes broader North Pacific Ocean conditions, with substantial overlap with ENSO. Stratospheric winds known as the QBO can influence the polar vortex. These are useful modifiers, but none provides a dependable resort snowfall forecast. Meanwhile, the MJO and North Atlantic blocking can rearrange storm and cold-air patterns for weeks. Their winter-long behavior remains too uncertain to build this outlook around.
The final ingredient is temperature. More precipitation does not automatically mean more snow. A warm storm can rain on the parking lot while burying the upper mountain. Long-term warming also makes lower terrain more vulnerable than in older analog winters. We are more optimistic about snowfall where additional moisture overlaps reliably cold elevations.
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Which historical winters count?
For the charts below, we selected all six winters since 1980 whose December–February Oceanic Niño Index, or ONI, reached at least 1.5°C: 1982–83, 1991–92, 1997–98, 2009–10, 2015–16, and 2023–24. No weak El Niños or La Niñas are mixed into the snowfall examples.
Four of those events reached 2°C in an autumn or winter three-month period: 1982–83, 1997–98, 2015–16, and 2023–24. Those are our “very strong” examples, sometimes called “super El Niños.” Under this traditional measure, the most recent was 2023–24, not 2015–16. NOAA now uses a relative index that accounts for broader tropical warmth, so these historical labels are not an exact match to its current classification.
Six winters are a small sample, not a probability calculator. They do, however, show what actually happened—and how widely outcomes can vary.
Pacific Northwest: do not write off the Cascades
Start with Mt. Baker’s published history. The four very strong events delivered 657, 648, 622, and 508 inches, respectively. Compared with the 649-inch average we calculated for 1990–91 through 2019–20, those totals range from 78 to 101 percent. The four-event average was 94 percent of that benchmark: a modest shortfall, not an automatic snow drought.
The wider strong-winter sample also includes a difficult 373-inch El Niño season in 1991–92, versus 644 inches in 2009–10. Baker can receive an enormous absolute amount of snow while finishing below its own very snowy standard.
Oregon offers genuine above-average examples. Mt. Hood Meadows reports 620 inches in 1982–83, 353 in 1997–98, and 478 in 2015–16—144, 82, and 111 percent of its published 430-inch average. These three examples include both the upside and a miss; they are not a complete Meadows sample.
The Washington State Climate Office’s review of 2015–16 adds another useful fact: mountain snow-water equivalent was near normal statewide on April 1, with some basins above normal, despite a warm winter. An unusually wet season compensated. Warm April weather then accelerated melting.
That supports the central point raised by Larry Schick and Cliff Mass: the strongest El Niños need not produce a poor Cascade winter. Mass’s April 1 charts show snow depth, however, not cumulative snowfall. Those are different measurements, and neither guarantees powder quality throughout the season.
Our forecast: near to modestly below-normal snowfall for higher Washington terrain; near normal, with upside, for higher Oregon. These are low-confidence leans, not a snow-drought forecast. Lower elevations face a clearer negative tilt because of rain and melt. NOAA’s winter dry signal is focused inland rather than along the immediate Pacific coast; a blanket PNW downgrade misses that distinction.
California: favorable odds, not guaranteed record books
Mammoth’s Main Lodge snowfall record captures both sides. The strong El Niño of 2009–10 delivered 557.9 inches, or 147 percent of its calculated 1990–91 through 2019–20 average. 1982–83 brought 546.3 inches, or 144 percent. But 1991–92 produced 226 inches, just 60 percent. The very strong 2015–16 and 2023–24 events finished much closer to that historical benchmark, at 362.2 and 367 inches.
Even within the Sierra, totals differ. Palisades Tahoe’s 8,000-foot snow plot recorded 518 inches in 2015–16 and 423 in 2023–24. There is no single “El Niño snowfall total” for California.
Our forecast: lean above normal for high-elevation Sierra snowfall, with more confidence in the central and southern range than in a uniform statewide outcome. Current model guidance strengthens that case, particularly later in winter. Expect a better setup for building upper-mountain bases than for uninterrupted cold powder at lower elevations.
For Southern California, wetter odds also warrant attention to flooding and debris flows. But Scripps researchers emphasize that individual atmospheric rivers can overturn seasonal expectations, and their landfalls cannot be scheduled months ahead. Flooding depends on storm intensity, duration, snow levels, and ground conditions—not the El Niño label alone.
Northern Rockies: Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming
The inland Northwest remains a more defensible below-normal call than the Cascades. A more southerly Pacific storm track can reduce incoming storms, while mild periods hurt lower-elevation snow retention. Unlike the immediate coast, this region has less opportunity to benefit from a northward extension of Pacific coastal precipitation.
Our forecast: lean below normal for northern Idaho and western Montana, with a weaker negative lean in the Tetons. Southern Idaho and southern Wyoming are transition zones, where confidence is lower. High terrain can still deliver excellent powder during favorable cycles; a seasonal deficit does not imply a winter without worthwhile storms.
Utah: huge seasons are possible, but the signal is weaker
Alta provides the sort of history skiers remember: its Collins study plot recorded 687 inches in 1982–83 and 659.5 inches in 1997–98. Those are real strong El Niño seasons, measured through the end of April. They demonstrate the Cottonwoods’ upside, not that every strong event delivers 650 inches.
Northern Utah lies in the transition between stronger northern and southern ENSO relationships. California storms can track toward the Wasatch or pass south through Arizona.
Our forecast: no strong directional lean for the northern Wasatch; near normal is a planning baseline, not a narrow predicted range. Southern Utah has a more favorable above-normal tilt. Elevation helps keep incoming moisture as snow, but storm track remains decisive.
Colorado: the south has the better setup
Colorado is another state where a single statewide label hides too much. The National Weather Service’s historical guidance distinguishes favorable southern-track and Front Range upslope situations from weaker northwest flow into northern and central mountains. A big Denver-area storm does not necessarily mean big totals west of the Continental Divide.
Our forecast: a modest above-normal lean for the San Juans and southern Colorado, little directional confidence for central Colorado, and near to slightly below normal in the northern mountains. Confidence is lower than in the Southwest. Small changes in storm position can rearrange the winners, while high elevations limit—but do not eliminate—warm-storm problems.
Southern Rockies: New Mexico and Arizona
This is one of the more encouraging regions. Scripps research identifies the desert Southwest as a particularly consistent recipient of El Niño’s wetter-season influence. When storms reach Arizona and New Mexico, their high ski terrain can convert moisture that falls as rain at lower elevations into mountain snow.
Our forecast: lean above normal for high-elevation seasonal snowfall in both states, especially during the core and later winter. Taos, northern New Mexico’s other high mountains, and Arizona’s high terrain have reasons for optimism. Still, a wet Southwest does not guarantee every resort finishes above average. Long dry intervals and warm storms remain possible, even during a favorable season.
Canada: Whistler has delivered during strong El Niño
Canada deserves more than an extension of a U.S. map. Environment and Climate Change Canada identifies milder winter and spring conditions across western and central Canada as a common El Niño influence. Eastern Canada’s relationship is weaker.
But mild does not necessarily mean snowless. Whistler’s record for tourism is 1,494 centimeters in 2009–10, approximately 588 inches. The very strong 2015–16 season delivered 1,257 centimeters, about 495 inches. Those equal 144 and 121 percent of Tourism Whistler’s published 1,040-centimeter average. 2023–24 reached 1,018 centimeters, about 401 inches, or 98 percent of that benchmark. Upper-mountain totals should not be mistaken for village conditions.
Our forecast: coastal British Columbia has a plausible path to near-normal upper-mountain snowfall, but greater rain and retention risk lower down. Interior British Columbia and the Canadian Rockies carry a modest below-normal lean; colder, higher terrain offers protection from rain, not from a missing storm. Quebec and Atlantic Canada have lower-confidence snowfall outlooks, with thaws and the timing of cold air more important than a simple ENSO label.
Northeast: moisture still needs cold air
An active southern jet can supply East Coast storms, but it does not ensure snow at New England or Adirondack resorts. The broader warm pattern remains a concern. North Atlantic blocking can help establish a favorable cold pattern; storm tracks and the placement of cold high pressure then decide who gets snow, ice, or rain.
Our forecast: a cautious near- to below-normal lean for mountain snowfall and snow retention, with low confidence in exact totals. Northern, higher terrain has a temperature advantage, not immunity. A few well-timed coastal storms or sustained northwest-flow snow cycles could produce memorable stretches. The seasonal outlook cannot tell us whether those windows will coincide with a particular trip.
The bottom line
California’s high terrain and the Southwest have the best combination of favorable storm-track odds and elevation. The inland northern mountains face more headwinds. Utah and Colorado remain transition zones, and the Northeast needs timely cold.
The important correction is along the Pacific coast: strong El Niño does not justify writing off the Cascades or coastal British Columbia. The historical totals include productive winters, near-normal winters, and disappointments. Use this outlook to tilt expectations—not to cross an entire region off the chase list.
How to read the numbers
These are accumulated snowfall totals at the sources’ reporting locations, not settled snow depth or snow-water equivalent. Resorts use different elevations and season boundaries. Our Baker and Mammoth benchmarks are arithmetic means of 30 published season totals; Meadows and Whistler comparisons use their stated averages. Percentages are rounded, historical comparisons are not adjusted for warming, and none is a calibrated forecast probability. Linked records support every snowfall example; regional forecasts combine those examples with the atmospheric evidence rather than treating history as a script.
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