SUMMARY
Powder is going to be falling in many areas of the Rockies this week. Highlights will include the southern and central Montana range, Wasatch, NE Colorado, and eventually the southern San Juans this weekend including New Mexico. Sometimes the deepest snow does not always bring the best rewards depending on what opens? Welcome back to winter.
Most of the moisture is focussed from central Idaho to Wyoming this morning in the Rockies. 8 inches has fallen last night at the summit of Jackson Hole Ski resort (Closed) with temps right at freezing. Temps are dropping with mid-mountain telemetry at 3 inches. Targhee has had 3 inches of wet snow at the summit. Temps continue to fall slowly so any rain at the bases will most likely switch back to snow by this evening. Expect an additional 3-7 inches at the summits of the Tetons today (Wet as a soggy dog) and 3-5 inches of higher quality snowfall into Wednesday morning (Ride Thursday AM). Utah, Colorado and Montana have good chase prospects.
Montana
Models are favorable for 6-12 inches of snowfall for the mountains outside Bozeman including Big Sky and Bridger. 2-4 inches of heavy wet snow will likely kick in today (2-4 fell last night) with another 4-10 inches likely by Wednesday morning (Decent quality). Some peaks may report over 12-15 inch storm totals.
Utah
No change to the forecast from yesterday. Wet snow and rain will be falling below 9500 feet today in the Wasatch with increased intensity after 2 PM. Temps fall quickly Tuesday evening with steady moderate snow through Wednesday morning (6-10). There may be some breaks in intensity overnight at times. NW flow and colder air continue to ramp up snow ratios Wednesday morning. Lake Effect enhancement is likely Wednesday into Thursday. Steady snowfall Wednesday decreasing late at night or early Thursday will bring another good refresh to the Wasatch. Total snowfall from late Tuesday to early Thursday will be in the 20-25 inch range. Expect lots of delayed openings, road closures, and even a reminder of the crust layers from the mank today (Wednesday). You will need to be patient! If the amounts from Tuesday night into opening Wednesday stay below epic levels you're odds of steeper terrain opening while its snowing is higher. Snow intensity is likely to pick at some point Wednesday.
Thursday may end up being the day for newly opened terrain. Snow showers will continue albeit light intensity.
Below: Totals snowfall per the multiple ensembles for Alta Ski area through Thursday. Mean is around 20-24 inches. Some lines above and a few below.
Colorado
Colorado offers a bit more mystery but I think I have a good handle on it. Light snow will be falling late Tuesday night. The intensity picks up Wednesday albeit still on the light side. Moderate snow will likely be falling along the I-70 corridor by the afternoon through early Thursday. Currently, I will speculate that 2-4 fall along the I-70 corridor Wednesday with another 3-5 into Thursday (6-9 totals). NW flow initially Wednesday may enhance the totals over Vail Pass (Wildcard for higher amounts). However, the main low-pressure system just south of Denver will be pumping ample moisture north into Boulder County that will increase totals for Eldora and perhaps Winter Park. Rocky Mountain National Park may score very deep snowfall (12-15 or more). Expect decent totals Thursday morning favoring resorts east towards the Front Range or north. As an anomaly and wildcard Telluride is showing pretty decent snowfall by late Wednesday (Closed for the season).
Below: Total snowfall by midnight Wednesday for Colorado (Northern areas favored).
Below: Total snowfall by Thursday mid-morning- Increasing amounts north of Denver, perhaps significant totals in some isolated locations. Some increase noted in Summit County and eastern Eagle County from the map above.
Below: Uptick in snow Friday for most of the Front Range mountains along the Divide. This may extend into Saturday.
Below: Ensemble run for Berthoud Pass showing decent totals from Wednesday night to Friday.
Keep reading for the extended.
EXTENDED
ThePacific Northwestwho sees light to moderate snow this week looks more active for the weekend. Moderate-high elevation snow Saturday/Sunday and perhaps Monday are likely. The Good:Sum totals may be significant. The Bad: Temps rise and fall through the period (April warming) so quality may range from good periods to dense. The Sunday/Monday timeframe might offer cooler temps and better opportunity.
The Wasatchgets light snow Friday. Most of the moisture Friday to Monday will drop south. Coloradowill see an increase of snowfall for the Front Range resorts (Eastern Divide) Friday or Saturday morning. Loveland Ski area may be worth watching. That system creeps south into the San Juan range for Saturday where a decent amount of pow will likely be falling over Wolf Creek. Taos is a strong contender for the mid-Saturday to Sunday timeframe (Reopening Wednesday).
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Powderchaser Steve
