We are issuing a Powder Watch for isolated pockets of double digits in the Rockies by Friday morning. Short-term guidance brings a quick-moving 4-9 inches to extreme northern Utah (Beaver Mountain, Bear River Range). By midweek, the action increases over the Pacific Northwest with a warm storm migrating colder by Thursday. Cold air and low-density powder will likley be falling from Idaho to Utah by Thursday/Friday with double digits likely. This will be the better storm to watch.
Highlights:
* Northern PNW/Canada gets active midweek with warmish temps transitioning cold by Thursday.
* Northernmost Utah (Near the Wyoming border) might sneak out a good storm Monday.
* A larger storm might set up in Utah (N-South) Th-Fri.
* Week #2 seems active in the PNW and northern Rockies for the extended period.
Monday-Friday- Trend
This week features a low-pressure system in the PNW, first arriving with SW flow (See the bars on this upper-level atmosphere chart). The Flow turns NW as the low tracks east over Utah (Behind the front). Warmish air with snow levels near 3700 feet in the PNW brings dense snow to western Canada and the northern Cascades before a colder NW flow. The low tracks over southern Utah by Thursday night.
Monday-Thursday (3/2-3/5)
(Date and day in upper right) Snowfall fills in today with a weak system currently moving into Utah (Monday) that seems to focus on areas well north of I-80 (Beaver might be a good chase). This moisture tracks over southern Wyoming (I-80 corridor, Laramie Range as a wildcard). The Wasatch is just south of the highest action, with Colorado also seeing scraps. A new system at the end of this loop moves into the PNW by Wednesday. This is a better system to watch. Bottom Line: Keep an eye on the northern tip of Utah for Tuesday AM Powder. Ride the PNW by Midweek and skirt south to the Wasatch, perhaps by Thursday/Friday.
Wednesday 3/4 to Friday 3/6
Snow from the PNW, BC, and Alberta on Wednesday drops south into Oregon, teasing the Sierra. The low tracks over central or southern Utah. This could bring some decent double-digit totals to much of Utah (South and North). Western Idaho (McCall area mountains) also appears healthy by Thursday morning. The Utah period for peak snow is Thursday late AM to Friday morning. Models are in disagreement on totals that might range from 8-20 inches (Widespread solutions). We will narrow this down in a future forecast. The Uinta Range looks deep.
CAT SKI ALERT: With decent confidence of high snow totals for the Uinta Range in Utah, we think that PC Cats (Rides high elevations in the Uinta Range, 35 minutes from Park City) might have deep, high-quality powder by the end of this week. This terrain is outstanding. Limited spots are available beginning Monday, 3/9, here
Below: Cold front is moving from the PNW at the start of this loop on Wednesday into the Rockies by Thursday (End of this loop). This will bring good snow ratios and quality.
Below: Weekly snow totals ending through Friday at 10:1 snow ratios. Actual totals will exceed this map with the cold air and 15:1 or better ratios (snow-to-liquid ratio), especially in the Rockies. Colorado seems to be on the lower end of the spectrum.
EXTENDED POWDER
Monday 3/9 to Friday 3/13
The trend is favorable for more storms to spread from the PNW and Canada into the northern and central Rockies.
24-hour snowfall totals during next week favor some double digits for the PNW (Could be a good storm), and transitioning into Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Utah, and Colorado. This could be a better setup for Colorado with zonal flow versus the low this week that cuts off in Utah. Caveat: We are still 7-14 days out with models that will change (Low to medium confidence).
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