SUMMARY
The past 48 hours had challenging forecasts that came very close to nailing the totals for Mount Baker, Stevens, Tetons, and the southern Wasatch (Alta and Snowbird). The Park City resorts came up over performing and the northern resorts of Utah under performed. The cold front is approaching Colorado Sunday afternoon and will spread snowfall into the Front Range of Colorado Sunday night. I have little confidence for any deep numbers for most of Colorado Monday morning. Boulder or the Front Range foothills might end up with more snow than the ski resorts. The San Juan Range might surprise near Telluride.
FORECAST
In the past few days we forecasted 12-18 inches for the north Cascades (Baker at 14), 6 for the Tetons (JHMR reported 7), and a tricky Wasatch Forecast of 4-8 inches with an outside chance of 10 in the Cottonwoods (9 at Brighton). The models never had good agreement, especially in Utah. In fact, only 1 model got it right being the NAM 12 who showed the higher amounts south of Salt Lake (Cottonwoods). The other models, including the short term high resolution model showed deeper amounts north. Decisions to chase powder Sunday came at 6AM with the cold front slowly sagging over Park City and the the Cottonwoods to the South. JHMR would have been a decent score with 7 inches overnight! Crust layers were evident in the Wasatch from a warming spell during the past few days (Not epic- but still fun). I think the Tetons saw similar conditions but scored more overnight pow.
The current trend are for an increase in snow showers for Colorado Sunday night favoring the Front Range resorts, or Metro areas. The models are not very bullish for Summit County. The highest amounts are likely to fall north of I-70 teasing Steamboat and perhaps landing decent numbers for Winter Park, Eldora and Berthoud Pass. The University of Utah Plumes below (Averages of multiple model runs) are pretty bullish below for Monday morning at Berthoud Pass but there is still some uncertainty (Widely spaced lines). Averages still are showing 10 inches but I am not sure I am ready to sign off on it just yet. I would expect 4-8 inches overnight for resorts closest to the Front Range including Rocky Mountain National Park with and outside chance of Double Digits. Northern areas will be favored.
Steamboat, and resorts west on I-70 are likely to see lower amounts (3-5). Aspen is a wildcard for higher amounts.
The extended forecast brings several storms into the Pacific Northwest and BC this week.
EXTENDED
There are 3 storms to speak about.
2 Feet or more is likely in many areas through Friday in the Cascades or southern BC.
The first will bring moderate snow favoring the north Cascades of Washington on Monday night and Tuesday (4-9). Snow levels rise Tuesday as another slightly deeper system moves in by nightfall into Wednesday morning. This will favor the central and northern Cascades of Washington (6-10) with a cooling trend as moisture is decreasing (Snow to the bases, but might be a bit dense on the hill). Western sections of BC towards Whistler will see several periods of light or moderate snow this week (Similar timing). Interior BC will grab leftovers especially northern areas (3-6 inches each 24-48 hour period). Temps in the interior will be colder so quality will be higher. Temps in the Cascades and Western BC will be warmer with snow levels bouncing from 3-4500 feet (Hard to predict quality with 3 storms). They all seem to start warm and finish cold.
Yet, another system and even deeper moves in for Friday favoring the northern Cascades and Whistler. This might bring 10 inches or more to these areas for your 1st turns Friday morning. This system will drag a bit further south in both the Washington and the interior of BC (Southern Resorts might see moderate amounts). I would watch Schweitzer, Red, Fernie, White, and perhaps northern Montana (Whitefish). That Friday system is likely to bring a return to snow for the Sierra (Decent amounts possible) by Saturday. While it is too early to predict that far out, there is an increasing chance of additional snow for the Rockies later next weekend as snow from the Sierra shifts East.
IF you want to score the deepest powder from every system please sign up for our Concierge program for custom forecasts, last minute info and insider tips.
Powderchaser Steve
