The Sierra scored again last night with up to 17 inches overnight (Squaw) at upper elevations near the Crest with most resorts reporting 6-11 inches in 12 hours. 1st chair this morning will certainly deliver the highest quality you can expect from this storm cycle (Light density, light to moderate winds). Snow is continuing Sunday with another 3-7 inches likely during the day. Conditions will be all time today with many resorts popping ropes that may have been closed yesterday due to winds or significant snowfall during the day.
Here are some very impressive 5-day totals for California per Open Snow forecaster Bryan Allegretto as of Sunday morning. These amounts will be higher by the end of the day.
Homewood: 105 inches
Squaw: 99 inches
Northstar: 89 inches
Alpine: 83 inches
Sierra at Tahoe: 82 inches
Elsewhere in the west if your stomach just dropped wondering why you did not chase (Me included) you have some opportunity. If you're in the Tetons, consider Grand Targhee who surprised us with 9-10 inches of deep blower Saturday night (3 degrees at the summit this morning). Please comment on this post if you are at Targhee.
The Sierra system that slammed the mountains in the past 24 hours is going to move over the southern Rockies Sunday PM through Tuesday. Arizona Snowbowl will grab a healthy overnight dump of 7-14 inches with snow continuing during Monday. Be in position for first or last chair!
That system edges into Colorado by late Monday into Tuesday. Models are telling me that it's likely the heaviest snow lands north of Bayfield or extending out towards Wolf Creek Pass. Less snow is likely north of Durango however moderate amounts will occur through Tuesday morning. Telluride is a wildcard. My best estimate of snow totals will be from 9-16 inches at Wolf Creek by Tuesday mid-morning with less snow west of Bayfield. The winds start out favorable for southern Colorado ski resorts (S or SW) before shifting to the east. That may ramp up amounts east of Wolf Creek Pass and even the Front Range southern Foothills of Colorado. East and SE wind direction can skunk certain areas on the western side of the Divide. WInds shift to the West late Tuesday morning through Wednesday. That will push some light or moderate snow to the central and northern mountains of Colorado for last chair Tuesday or 1st chair Wednesday (2-5).
Below: Total snowfall for Colorado through Tuesday. Amounts may be higher with colder temperatures. The 7 on this map is Pagosa Springs with heavier amounts showing up west towards Bayfield and the mountains to the north. I am not sure I am buying into this. When the winds go SE or East most snow should fall towards Wolf Creek Pass or even east towards Creed.
Bottom Line: Chase from the Sierra to Arizona late today. Chase to Colorado for Monday night. The mystery of the southern Colorado mountains may deliver big amounts or at the same token dissapoint. I will narrow in the models on the next post.
Powderchaser Steve
