SUMMARY:
Snow is just beginning to fall in the Cascades this morning. Respectable snow levels (2500-3,000 feet) not commonly seen in mid-April will drive good quality snowfall for areas of the Washington Cascades. A deep warm system will hit the Tetons this weekend. The Rockies turn on the small hydrants Tuesday/Wednesday with moderate to perhaps heavy snowfall in some isolated locations. Even the Sierra is going to nab 5-10 inches early next week.
FORECAST:
In the search of any single deep dump with cold temps, your only choice may be the Cascades this weekend. Radar is just filling in for the Washington Cascades. Temps are still on the warm side (33 degrees at the base of Baker) but will cool as moisture increases and through Saturday night. The highest totals will be in the northern Cascades with 6-11 inches likely by late Sunday. The models are showing less for Stevens (4-8), however with westerly winds and colder air a convergence zone is a wildcard especially Sunday morning (Amounts may end up higher). Snow showers continue to add to these amounts into Monday. The Good: Decent snow levels and moisture Saturday-Monday. The Bad: Daytime snow Saturday combined with light to moderate amounts Saturday night (No single double-digit overnight dump). Some areas will hit double digits by late Saturday night or early Sunday.
The Tetons will get deep by Sunday midday! Significant snowfall will be falling at upper elevations of the ski areas late Saturday to late Sunday night. Temps start out cool Saturday night quickly warming by early Sunday morning (0900-1100). Rain/Snow mix may be falling at the base of Targhee with all snow at the summit. Expect dense snow throughout Sunday and perhaps extending into Monday (Targhee is open on the weekends only).
Below: Significant snow noted for the Tetons at the highest elevations through Monday. Moderate snow is possible for southern Montana just above the Wyoming border (Big Sky may be worth a watch).
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EXTENDED:
A storm system will approach the northern Rockies Monday night. The Chase may ensure for the Wasatchand Colorado for Tuesday or Wednesday. Currently, the models disagree on amounts. The Euro downgraded Utah pushing moisture north towards the Wyoming border for Tuesday morning (light to moderate snow for the Cottonwoods). The GFS has remained steady with moderate to perhaps heavy snow (8-12). I have moderate confidence that Tuesday morning will bring decent totals to the higher elevations of the Wasatch. The Good: Decent odds of moderate overnight snow approaching double digits at some point Tuesday. The Bad: It's a warm system so quality will be a risk in chasing. Upper elevations will be decent but not epic. Cooling Tuesday afternoon may bring better quality frosting late in the storm system as moisture decreases.
Colorado appears to get a wide area of 5-11 inches primarily late Tuesday into Thursday. The models show continued moisture into Thursday. Amounts will slowly build up with peaks on Wednesday (Storm ski). I am not confident in double digits in any 6-12 hour period. I am somewhat confident in some double digits by Thursday morning (Sum totals from Late Tuesday to early Thursday). I am most bullish for the northern and western regions of Colorado. Eagle County may outperform Summit (Vail or Beaver Creek). Models are also showing significant snow for the peak of Mount Werner (Steamboat closes April 14th). There may also be higher amounts at Telluride (Closed). The Good:Decent moisture over 2-3 days. The Bad: Warm system for most of the highest precipitation before cooling late Wednesday or Thursday. Not sure any deep amounts will happen in a 6-12 hour window. Late Wednesday or early Thursday may be your best chases?
The Sierrais back on the spotlight for some decent quality Monday night into Tuesday. 5-10 inches are likely for storm totals. The Euro brings most snow in late Monday to Tuesday while the GFS is faster with storm totals split between Monday/Monday night. Snow levels are likley going to be around 6500 feet.
Below: Total snowfall through Tuesday morning for the Sierra
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High Pressure and warm temps ensue for the latter part of next week. Enjoy the powder while you can.
Below: Long term ensembles showing high pressure for the west late next week.
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Powderchaser Steve.
