It's snowing lightly in the Wasatch with 2-5 inches being reported at most areas this morning (4-5 in the Cottonwoods). The models show snow continuing through the morning hours with perhaps another 2-4 inches by Noon. I think some spots could be decent this morning especially higher elevations. Both Big and Little Cottonwood should be fairly even on amounts. One area to watch purely on speculation from radar and webcams that are nearly nonexistent is Beaver Mountain up north. Update: As of 6 AM the official report is only 1 inch.
There are some changes in the long-range chase cast this morning. The GFS is still optimistic for a decent storm for the northern Rockies late this week. The Euro has become the pessimist downtrending amounts. The GFS wants to crank heavy moisture in the Sawtooths (North of Sun Valley) Wednesday and bring the action into the Tetons as early as late PM into Thursday (Significant snow). Moderate snow is also being depicted for southern Montana. The Euro delays the action somewhat as a Thursday/Friday event with lower amounts than what the GFS is showing. The Wasatch may sit just north of the bulk of action but will also see an uptick of some snowfall late this week. It's likely areas north do better. Let me wait until there is a consensus in the models to make a stab at amounts. WIth the models not agreeing on timing, it's going to be a chase anywhere from Wednesday to Friday (Idaho to Montana or Wyoming in that order).
The Sierra continues to see snowfall but also downtrended on the models. The heaviest snow will be falling Tuesday night to Thursday. Previous models had 3-4 feet. Current models have downtrended this morning to around 2 feet favoring the northern areas. Aim to ride Wednesday or Thursday. Confidence is high for decent amounts. Winds may be an issue Wednesday?
For Colorado, the Euro is pessimistic for heavy snow in Colorado, where the GFS still brings a moderate system into the Front Range late Friday or Saturday. New Mexico is likely to get nailed along the east favored slopes. Confidence in Taos is lacking currently due to Easterly influence, however, sometimes they sneak out high amounts against all odds. Santa Fe may be a better bet? Metro areas east may see significant snow.
Below: Total snowfall in the next 6 days for the west. The Sierra, Sawtooths, perhaps Brundage, and most of Wyoming and southern Montana are favored. This is an optimistic GFS model. The sometimes more reliable Euro is more pessimistic so it's likely these amounts will downtrend at some point.
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