SUMMARY
The Cascades performed as forecasted with 11 inches for Baker (Forecasted 8-15) and around 5-6 inches in the central and southern Cascades of WA (Forecasted 6-11). The winds and colder air will favor a convergence zone this morning for the central and southern Cascades with an additional 2-5 inches likely during the day. The storm over the Rockies being fed by significant moisture from the Baja today will merge with the colder storm in the PNW for Wednesday and Thursday over the Rockies. Decent snow will be likely for the Wasatch and much of Colorado for midweek period. The Eastern Plains of CO will get blasted.
FORECAST
If you're in the Cascades start chasing to Baker (11 of high quality) or consider the added snowfall that will occur today and this evening for the central and southern zones of WA or northern Oregon (Still snowing). Cold air will bring high quality throughout the day. Schweitzer is also a wildcard pick for 4-10 inches during the day Tuesday.
Heavy wet snow is falling in the San Juan mountains favoring the southern zones (Wolf, Purg, Silverton). It's very warm with 30 degrees currently on the summit of Wolf Creek Pass (CAIC station). Heavy wet snow will continue for Tuesday in many areas of the southern zones most likely adding up to another 9-15 inches by evening. Purgatory is reporting 13 inches this morning. Wolf Creek at a whopping 22 inches, and Telluride around 8. Some of that snow fell on Monday. If you want to chase it \"go for it\" for expect cream for the most part and unlikely steeps or side country due to rapidly increasing avy danger and persistent snowfall today. It's going to get 10-20 inches deeper and continue to warm throughout the day (UGGH).
The merge of the Baja warm moist atmosphere and the cold PNW low will = categorial dumpage over much of eastern Colorado. The central and northern mountains of Colorado and most of northern Utah will start to feel the western side of the low on Wednesday and Thursday with colder temps.
Winds on Wednesday morning shift to the West over the mountain ranges before veering NW and North throughout the day. Colder air will also be working into Colorado during this timeframe. Heavy snow will fall for several hours over most of the northern San Juan mountains, extending east to Monarch Pass, Aspen, and areas west to Powderhorn. Moderate snow is likely over the I-70 corridor from Glenwood to Summit County. If you want to storm ski, my gut tells me that Monarch could score some of the higher amounts with Telluride also possible with the wind shifts. Further east towards Vail and Summit I would expect 5-10 inches by last chair Wednesday. Wednesday afternoon into Thursday will favor resorts closest to the Front Range including eastern Summit (A-Basin, Breckenridge) and areas along the Divide. There will be general ranges of 5-10 inches for most of the mountains along I-70 with higher amounts further south to Monarch and perhaps further west towards Powderhorn, and even south to Telluride. It's not a perfect forecast with so many wind shifts (SW, W, NW, N) and the models are not clear on exactly where the main low will land. I once mentioned that I find southern storms to be the most challenging. You can chase and chase and find out that your resort to the north just scored big numbers (Breckenridge often squeaks out some surprises for the southern storms). The best quality will be found Wednesday or even early Thursday.
Snow reports in Colorado on Wednesday won't include too much new snow for the northern mountains (Storm Ski) but will be hefty in the south for the warm wet snow that falls today. Additional light or moderate snow is likely near the Divide (Loveland, Berthoud, WP, Eldora) for Thursday morning (Ride Wednesday to the last chair or 1st chair Thursday). Much of the snow in the southern San Juan range will have ended by Thursday morning. The exception may be Taos where light or moderate snow may continue.
Below: Totals for Colorado through late Wednesday. Much of these totals in the south will fall Tuesday with the most snow in the central and northern mountains occurring Wednesday. Telluride may also score during this timeframe. Taos is a wildcard with 6-10 inches possible.
In Utah expect a good blast of NW winds, Cold air to break out late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. There will be a decent period of heavy snow with the passage of a cold front just after daybreak Wednesday. Storm ski the Cottonwoods for the highest amounts that could continue somewhat into Thursday ((Totals in the Cottonwoods will be 8-15). Park City and north (4-9). Storm ski Wednesday.
New Mexico is a wildcard with moderate snow likely Wednesday into Thursday (6-10).
If you're in the far eastern plains of Colorado expect blizzard conditions Wednesday with 80 MPH gusts and heavy snowfall. The highest amounts may be in the NE corner of the State (10-25 inches).
EXTENDED
We enter a period of high pressure this weekend through the middle of next week. A return to some storminess is likely as we get into the last 10 days of March.
Powderchaser Steve
