Cold air and moisture are moving into the PNW, Idaho, and the Rockies on Wednesday evening. The difference with this storm as opposed to others is that snow ratios will be higher, lower-density powder, and less wind. One caveat when considering your chases is that with the warm temps today, you might experience some high-quality powder on a firm surface (South facing especially). Winds overall with these storms this week are not strong (Good thing).
Some expected storm totals through Friday (Some snow comes in 2 waves).
Stevens Pass: 4-9 inches
Bachelor: 9-14 inches
Baker: 3-5 inches
Brundage: 4-9 inches
Bridger Bowl: 8-14 inches
Big Sky: 10-17 inches
Montana Snowbowl: 5-9 inches
JHMR: 5-9 inches
Targhee: 7-13 inches
Alta: 8-14 inches
Park City: 4-7 inches
Powder: 6-11 inches
Winter Park: 6-12 inches
Vail: 5-10 inches
Telluride: 9-14 inches
Eldora: 6-12 inches
Breckenridge: 5-10 inches
Steamboat: 7-10 inches
Monarch: 7-9 inches
Wolf Creek: 3-7 inches.
The Chase?
Total moisture through Thursday afternoon highlights the PNW, Western, and the panhandle of Idaho, and to some extent southern or central Montana (Bridger, Big Sky). These areas accumulate most on Wednsday night into Thursday morning (Could be a good chase for 1st chair), especially in Idaho.
Further south from southernmost Montana, the Tetons, and Wasatch, the first round of snow peaks well after midnight on Wednesday and continues into mid-morning Thursday.
The Tetons grab 2-5 inches by Thursday mid-morning under SW flow (Targhee is favored), Winds shift to the west midday, favoring Teton Pass and JHMR, with the coldest air expected Thursday PM to Friday (NW flow). This is where we can grab some deeper sneak up totals that are not showing up well on models (Bridger Bowl, Targhee) Thursday evening.
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The Wasatch is teasing us on Wednesday night and early Thursday morning with lower-end moisture totals than shown in Montana. They might sneak up 4-6 inches by the 1st chair before a lull mid Thursday morning. The next wave is stronger Thursday PM/Friday.
Activity in the Wasatch range reinvigorates Thursday afternoon with NW winds and colder air (High snow ratios 17:1 or better). Winds veer NNW at some point Thursday night (Less optimal for the higher Cottonwoods, better for mid canyon). If the winds stay more northwesterly, some higher totals will exist for Friday. We expect double digits in many areas of Utah by Friday morning
Total Precipitation through Thursday afternoon
Thursday PM to Friday- Snow filling with wave #2- Colder NW flow.
Below: Compared to the map above, which ends Thursday afternoon, you can see water totals increasing Thursday evening over the Wasatch and especially Colorado that lingers well into Friday. NW flow over Montana and the western mountains of the Teton Range could also score some sneak-up additional surprises (Targhee, Bridger) that are not showing up well on this model. NW or NNW flow over Utah should bring another nice shot of dry density powder to the Utah mountains Thursday night.
Below: Total snowfall through late Friday (10:1) will exceed these numbers due to the colder air (17:1). We are highlighting a few spots below. Higher confidence is in the Montana mountains near Bozeman, perhaps south to the Tetons as a wildcard (Targhee seems favored), Cottonwoods (Wildcard on high numbers), and in Colorado in both the Front Range, western mountains along I-70, and south to the northern San Juan range.
Jackson Airport Announcement: If you are flying in or out of Jackson, Wyoming, there is bus service from START Transit that will keep things green and save you money. This service runs all day with a link here. The airport has limited parking and encourages folks to use the direct bus from town.
Below: Colorado grabs counterclockwise flow with the low tracking directly overhead. Convective moisture might bring upside to our estimates above. You can see the wind bars below from the NW in the western mountains (Snowmass, Vail Pass, Steamboat). NW flow will push decent totals south to Telluride. Further east, you can see upslope and even northerly flow over the Divide (Good for the Divide, Berthoud Pass, WP, and RMNP). Southern Colorado has SW flow that can benefit the southern San Juan range; however, the moisture is less, and we are less optimistic. Summit County kinda falls in between upslope and perhaps some SW winds (Breck can score here).
Below: Total snowfall through Friday night in the west.
The extended forecast brings a decent wave into the interior of BC by Sunday that moves into the northern areas of the Rockies. From Tuesday-Friday next week, significant snow and wind might blast the PNW with 2-5 feet of much-needed powder.
Below: 24-hour incremental snow totals from Sunday (3/8) to Saturday (3/13).
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