Summary 11/15/18 AM report
8-11 inches of snow will be falling in central and northern New England to close the week out. You can chase to Mount Snow, Killington, Stowe, Wildcat or Sunday River! The northern Rockies see moderate amounts especially Montana and interior Wyoming near the Laramie Range. Long-term pattern change is likely going to bring snow to California around Turkey day.
Below: Low pressure taking aim at New England late this week
Short Term Forecast
Very cold air and snowfall will be pushing down from Canada in the Rockies late this week. That will kick off moderate snow for most of interior BC and eventually central and southern Montana Friday morning. Montana could see a moderate teaser of 5-7 inches near Bridger Bowl, 3-7 inches near Big Sky, and similar amounts outside of Missoula (Missoula Snow Bowl). Moisture takes direct aim at eastern Wyoming late Friday (Laramie Range could score some deeper amounts) before fizzling somewhat over Colorado on Saturday. Colorado mountains could score 2-4 inches over a wide area favoring the Continental Divide. Most ski areas in Colorado will at least grab light snow and colder temperatures. Below: Snowfall for the west through Sunday evening. MT and spots in WY likely to see the highest amounts. Most snow in MT and WY falls late Thursday/Friday. Colorado- Saturday.
New England is the chase pick of the week! Low pressure will move up from the Ohio Valley on Thursday. Snow will be falling heavily over PA, and interior New York State before pushing into the Berkshires by Thursday evening. Snow will be falling heavy at times late Thursday into Friday over much of New England. The favored locations may end up being resorts from the western Berkshires, central Vermont (Killington), pushing into resorts closest to Burlington (Jay Peak, Stowe, Sugarbush). These areas may exceed 10-12 inches by Saturday morning. The majority of the snow will fall after midnight Thursday to late Friday. All resorts in New England should see a solid 7-10 inches by late Friday night. Resorts further east or in southern VT may see lower amounts. Some mixed precipitation may fall at times near the bases (Southern or coastal areas) early Friday before changing back to all snow Friday afternoon or evening. The best time to chase powder will be Friday (Storm Ski) and again up north as orographics bring additional snowfall to the northern resorts for Saturday morning. I believe that Killington, Stowe, Wildcat, and Sunday River are open (Please be sure to check this out before venturing on a chase). Snow may continue Saturday in areas favored by W. NW winds with orographic upslope flow pushing some more pow into Jay Peak or Stowe for additional snowfall Saturday.
Below: One model showing significant snow favoring central and northern Vermont including western MA and the Adirondacks of New York (10 Plus). Northern Maine also in the 7-9 range. Amounts may exceed this by Saturday morning especially the Green Mountains of Vermont with colder air and W NW wind direction.
Below: The GFS is slightly less bullish but we think it's undercutting amounts somewhat (4-8)
Extended ForecastI hinted at a possible pattern change in my last forecast. The models are still showing a weak or moderate low-pressure system pushing into central California mid next week. This system will likely bring some light or moderate snow to the Sierra before pushing west over the central and southern Rockies. Its too far out to predict with certainty. Confidence is high that some storms will begin to impact the west mid to late next week. Exact track or amounts will be addressed in a later Chase Forecast.
Below: Low-pressure hinting at California mid to late next week. That may drag over to Utah and areas of the central or southern Rockies. Let's hope this holds up!