SUMMARY:
Light snow is falling in the Colorado Rockies south of Vail and Copper Mountain Sunday morning with 4 inches being reported at Ski Cooper where Copper reported none. We heard that the upper mountain of Breckenridge was good yesterday! Otherwise, its pretty much NILL but that will change by late Sunday or early Monday. Snow increases in the San Juan mountains including New Mexico through Monday morning. The midweek period will be warm and wet for the Sierra, Oregon, Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming (Snow above 8,000 feet). Late next week brings a repeat performance with an active April shaping up.
FORECAST
Light snow on the radar will fill in moderately for the San Juan range on Sunday. The short term High-resolution model (HRR) shows the heaviest precipitation from 11 AM to 10 PM. Amounts will likely exceed 8 inches at Wolf Creek and perhaps Purgatory at the summits. Telluride looks great on the NAM model (5-9) but less on the others (Best guess for Telluride is 4-7). If you are chasing this storm plan on riding PM Sunday and AM Monday. Elsewhere in Colorado, light snow showers will sneak north and tease a non-chaseable freshening for the central mountains (Crested Butte, Aspen) extending into the I-70 corridor (1-2).
Below: The optimistic NAM showing decent snow totals for the San Juan Mountains through late Sunday night (5-10). Perhaps 50% falls after 12 PM Sunday and the other half Sunday night. New Mexico will see most snow Sunday night.
In the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame, moisture will return to the northern Sierra and extend into Oregon, Idaho, Wyoming, and Utah. Snow levels in the Sierra will be around 7,000 feet bringing a round of 5-9 inches to the ski areas (0-3 at the bases). That system takes a direct hit on northern Utah near the Idaho border (3/4 to 1 inch of liquid moisture) and a bit less towards Salt Lake (.05 inches of moisture). Snow will be falling above 6500 feet in the Wasatch range with 10,000-foot temps in the mid to upper 20's. The base elevations in the Cottonwoods will likely remain as snow (Temps 32-34) as the actual snow level (Snow versus rain) extends 1,000 feet lower than the freezing level. The snow level is expected to be in the 7500 range. It may be raining on your way up the canyons with snow falling as you approach the ski areas above 6500 feet. Expect the highest moisture between 11 AM Tuesday extending into the evening. Late Tuesday or early Wednesday will offer moderate snow (5-9) at the summits (Dense). The Tetons will see similar amounts above 7,000 feet Tuesday night into Wednesday. This might be a stretch, but looking at the models it's possible that Pebble Creek in southern Idaho score a foot or more at the summit with higher precipitation totals? It's too early to speculate but worth watching. Colorado gets the leftovers late Tuesday into Wednesday (Some high elevation moderate snow is likely favoring the central and northern mountains- Aspen, I-70 corridor).
Late next week another round of snow will return to the northern Rockies with similar temps as the midweek storm.
Below:Trough entering the west next weekend (April 6).
The long-range brings another trough into the west in the April 9th timeframe.
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Enjoy the powder everyone!
Powderchaser Steve