Models performed as forecasted on Thursday morning with 10 inches at Jackson, and similar amounts in many of the higher peaks of Utah. Some forecasts were calling for 15-20 inches that we did not buy into due to warming temps and most of the moisture ending this morning. Snow quality was decent above 7500 feet in the Tetons and Wasatch this morning with significant warming by 11 AM (Mank). I would call it Hero Pow. Steamboat scored 9-11 inches as we forecasted on the last post. Winter Park and resorts closer to the I-70 corridor caught me off guard.
The next system for the mountains of the west will come in cooler for Utah and Wyoming. This system won't be as moist but with cooler temps and better snow ratios might bring another 5-10 inches to many mountains by Friday morning. Look for the higher end of that range in Wyoming and the lower end in Utah. The Cottonwoods seem to be lacking slightly on the models with perhaps higher amounts near Deer Valley, Snowbasin, and even Sundance is showing some possibilities. I suspect there will be some low-end surprises and a few high-end ones in Utah. Even the Idaho border near Beaver Mountain may be a good pick for Friday.
In Colorado, the deepness will be falling (Dense) in the San Juan and central mountains. Currently, I have very high confidence for 10-17 inches in the San Juans (Silverton, Wolf Creek, Purgatory) and moderate confidence for Telluride (Lower amounts likely). Crested Butte has high confidence, with Aspen in my moderate range. Monarch also is in the mix. Steamboat may also sneak out another surprise dump that we forecasted yesterday with SW flow extending moisture up to the Flat Tops. Areas east of Aspen and along I-70 should see 4-8 inches by late Friday. Friday morning will see some moderate snow in these areas, so plan on getting up early to check the snow reports. The only issue on this system is high snow levels, valley rain, and dense snow. Choose higher elevation terrain for the best rewards. Chase south or central. The northern mountains or areas along I-70 may do best late Friday AM into Saturday.
Below: Total snowfall for Colorado through Friday favoring the southern and central mountains.
In the Sierra, models are going ballistic with ample moisture, strong winds initially, warmish temps, and all the red flags to chase. The red flags disappear by Saturday or Sunday with diminishing winds, colder temps and better quality. Expect 3-5 feet of dense snow through Friday with another foot for Saturday morning. Additional snow will be falling on Saturday and perhaps Sunday.
The Cascades who were scored 3-4 feet in 48 hours on Wednesday grab more rewards for Friday and Saturday. Light to moderate snow should offer 3-7 inches for Friday and Saturday. Totals in the Cascades of WA will be 6-11 inches by Saturday. Favored areas will be Baker and Crystal with slightly lower amounts along I-90 or north to Stevens.
In the long range, a colder system from the Sierra (Mentioned above) drags over the Wasatch Friday night. NW flow will favor the Canyons side of PCMR, Little Cottonwood Canyon, and Powder Mountain in the northern Wasatch. This will be a high-quality moderate event (6-11). That system will bring good possibilities to the mountains of Colorado on Saturday including Vail, Breckenridge, Aspen, Monarch, and many spots from central to north for powder on Saturday.
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Powderchaser Steve
