Welcome back everyone! It a bit early being the first week of Fall posting a Powder Watch, however some ski areas have already seen a teasing of 7-9 inches of snow last week. The Tetons scored some turnable powder at the summits last week and more snow will be falling late this weekend in many areas of the west. It's not uncommon to see early snow in the northern hemisphere early season, but is rare to see such cold temps that are about to hit the west late this week. Also, while early snow is great buzz it's not a good indicator of what mid winter conditions will be, or who will see the most snow this season.
Below: Park City Mountain Resort got teased last week
The week ahead looks very wet withd moderate amounts by the time lifts start spinning Tuesday morning. The emphasis may favor spots further west like Beaver Creek, Aspen, and even Monarch that can score under westerly winds. Summit County will see snowfall but amounts could come up slightly less. Now let us move onto the deepest forecast yet this season!
The big news is that a good moisture tap from the Pacific combined with very cold temperatures early next week will drag south along the southern Cascades (southern Washington and Oregon) into California by Tuesday/Wednesday. That system currently on models takes a coastal route moving inland midweek over the Sierra and Rockies. The system will bring moderate to perhaps heavy snowfall to most of the Sierra. The southern areas, especially Mammoth will likely see higher amounts. SW flow and a steady stream of moisture will move over the 4 corners for much of the latter half of next week. Double digits are likely for much of the west with up to 3-4 feet possible for Arizona, and perhaps isolated areas of the San Juan Range in Colorado.
Below: Very cold temperatures plunge well into California and the dessert SW next week! Snow will be falling at many base locations and roadways of the west next week.
Significant POW will be falling (Light density) over Arizona mid to late week with the models perplexing me to issue an epic alert for 3 feet or more snow by Turkey Day. Snow will feed north into the Wasatch and even the Tetons under SW flow midweek. Southern Utah resorts will once again nab deep snow but don't' be surprised if the Wasatch comes up with some decent totals in areas favored by SW flow (Brighton, Solitude, Snowbasin, perhaps Sundance who does best with Southerly winds).
Prepare to chase next week!
Bottom Line: Aim for open areas that have solid bases especially from the snow that just fell in the last 48 hours. This storm is going to have some very light density snow which is not great for base building. More specifics to follow on a future post. Southern resorts will see the highest amounts but areas north will also score.
Below: The American model showing totals through Friday morning. This includes the early and midweek storms. Snow will likely be falling well into Turkey week in many areas of the west. The Euro not shown has similar amounts.
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