For several days now, the majority of long range weather models have been suggesting a pattern change in the West for next week. Not only does will we transition from high and dry to stormy, but it looks like the pattern will remain favorable for more storms.
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Over the last three to four days, the three major models, the European, Canadian, and American, have quickly converging on a solution that shifts the storm track down into the Western US. In the image below, all you need to know is that blues and purples etc mean a storm is coming. This is what the models are showing for the upper atmosphere on November 8th. There is rarely THIS much model agreement nine days out. And when they agree on storminess in the West, we are stoked.
(images courtesy of Weatherbell)
Unlike recent storms that have stayed more to the North or East, this potential storm track would be more likely to impact areas like the Sierra, Oregon, Idaho and Utah, in addition to places that hav seen significant snow recently like Montana, Wyoming, Colorado and New Mexico. While it is still too early to forecast specific amounts, it is fun to at least look at a snowfall output in fantasy land. Let's take today's long range snowfall forecast from the European model, which delivers a significant snowstorm to the Sierra. Check it out:
(Image courtesy of Weatherbell)
Let's hope that whatever happens next week is at least close to the map above, just for wildfire's sake.
Beyond the lengthy stormy period that could begin as early as November 7th, there are signs that we continue to stay active in the West. The ensembles are in decent agreement that we are unlikely to flip back to the high and dry pattern that had dominated for months. Of course we will keep an eye on that moving forward.
Prior to the aforementioned pattern change there is a smaller system that will impact British Columbia and the northern Cascades in the near term. Some respectable totals are possible with this event too.
Stay tuned for updates on the storm next week.