SUMMARY
The southern Cascades were deep this morning with 8-12 inches over many areas for 1st chairs. Crystal was blower pow just above boot top (12), and lesser amounts fell to the north. I missed the dump that mysteriously hit Bridger Bowl last night (12 plus inches of blower). The next 3 days will feature significant snowfall (20-35 inches) for the Southern San Juan mountains in Colorado and most of north/central Arizona. The cactus are going to be swimming in blower pow by Friday. Snorkel Alerts are up for many areas in the forecast.
BELOW: YESTERDAY: Snoqualmie mountain- Slot Couloir- WA- Skier: James Menning. Photo: Peter Avolio. This looks epic!
FORECAST
Looking at models, I remain very confident that Arizona (Flagstaff, Tucson- Mount Lemmon, Arizona Snowbowl) will all be in the snorkel zones by late Thursday. Heavy snow will be falling late tonight through Thursday.
Expect 15-30 inches for storm skiing Thursday and a repeat for Friday. The heaviest pow may be all day Thursday (Free refills) that continue moderate through Friday.
Some snow is even possible in AZ on Saturday. Snorkel time!
Below: AZ through Monday with most of this snow falling Thursday-Friday.
That system drags over southern Utah and the San Juan Mountains of Colorado primarily Thursday to Saturday. Storm ski Thursday in Colorado with moderate snow at Wolf Creek, Purgatory, and Silverton that intensifies late AM and early PM. Expect 6-11 inches in most areas before 2 PM Thursday. Telluride will see lower amounts.
Snowfall intensifies Thursday night in the San Juan Mountains of Colorado. Winds show some shifting from SW to W or NW by early Friday. Models show the deepness continuing in the southern San Juan's with a deeper Friday than Thursday (Another 10-18 inches for the southern San Juans). The northern San Juans stand the best shot of better snowfall during this period. Telluride who we never were optimistic for on the last storm may score on this storm. They will see less than the southern neighbors. Winds from the SW are not favorable for Telluride, however, the moisture is so intense in the San Juan mountains that it will likely overcome the deficits. If the winds shift to the N or NW early enough on Friday it may be nuking pow for your 1st chairs. My best guess for Telluride is 7-15 inches for Friday morning. Additional snow will fall during the day into Saturday. The southern San Juans including Wolf Creek, Silverton, and Purgatory will be in the 3-foot range by Saturday morning. Double snorkel may be required!
Below: Total snowfall for Cop). I suspect Mammoth is buried at the summit.
The forecast brings a warm system into the Sierra Saturday night to Monday (Peak snowfall on Sunday). Snow levels will start out around 5500 and rise to about 7,000K. That will bring snow/rain to some bases and all snow (Great for base building) to the upper elevations of most of the Sierra. Expect 2-3 feet of dense snow by Monday morning above 7000 feet. Much less will fall at lower elevations. Mammoth will see higher amounts with all snow due to higher base elevations. Kirkwood will also likely do well in this pattern especially at the Summit. The last deep storm was very light density, where this storm will be dense (Great for the base build). High winds will impact some lift operations.
The Tetons will sneak out some additional powder Sunday Monday night into Tuesday. Models seem to be in the 4-7 inch range! The base depth at Targhee right now is 50 inches (Not bad). Somehow 20 inches blessed the Tetons Friday night with my original forecast for 4-9 inches. I'm not sure I know what happened!
Below: Warmer air over the west including the Sierra with 4800-foot elevation temps at 4C. Slightly cooler as the front enters initially (Snow to the bases) but warming slightly thereafter.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
A fast-moving trough will impact southern California Tuesday. That system with weak energy will add to the snowpack for the 4 corners taking a path through southern Utah and Colorado (South and central areas, perhaps I-70). This will be a quick refresh late Wednesday into Thursday. The Wasatch is on the northern fringe.
In looking for chaseable pow, there is another cold system expected for the Sierra next weekend. That system will bring another 1-2 feet of powder to these areas. This will likely push east over much of the Rockies late next weekend but its too far out to forecast with accuracy (Looks promising). It is possible that the Wasatch, Tetons, and most of Colorado pick up cold leftovers during the Saturday or Sunday timeframe.
Another piece of energy will be hung up over the Pacific Northwest with perhaps some snowfall for Whistler and the Cascades late this week.
The extended models beyond 7 days show some hope of more systems pushing further north, perhaps Canada and the PNW. More to follow on a future post.
Below: Low-pressure trough entering the West late this week!
Below: Trough extending over the Rockies by late Saturday or early Sunday
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Powderchaser Steve
