High-Level Summary:
Snow levels are rising in the West on Wednesday; however, many ski areas in Canada and even a few isolated spots in the Rockies (Tetons) are scoring some wet snow. Mountains in BC and Alberta have fared pretty well over the past several days (Mid to upper elevation snow); however, rising snow levels and winds might make chases a bit riskier today. Rain is falling at most resorts in the PNW and lower elevations of BC.
Powder Watch
Next week looks very exciting as colder air and several low-pressure systems might track further south over Canada, the PNW, and the northern Rockies. New England has 2 periods this week to chase powder.
Highlights:
* Moderate snow is falling in some spots in the northern Rockies (upper mountain) and BC
* Slight and brief cool down Thursday might bring some snow back to the northern PNW and BC below 4500.
* New England Powder chases are possible on Wednesday and Friday.
* Extended forecast offers colder temps, and perhaps feet of snow for areas of the PNW, Canada, Rockies.
In searching for any deepness early Wednesday morning, it was a stretch aside from perhaps the interior BC region, where it appears 3-8 inches fell since Tuesday. Jackson Hole Telemetry (unofficial) is around 5 inches. Targhee looks to be around 4 inches on telemetry.
Below: JHMR telemetry at Raymer (Upper mountain) is at 5 inches on Wednesday morning. The official report on Wednesday was 6 inches.
Below: Revelstoke Cam looks to be around 5-8 inches (Norm is 12 inches tall). This will be very dense snow.
Below: Grizz at Fernie is happy this morning with around 20CM (7 inches) of dense snow, and still coming down. This is the upper mountain around 5K.
Below: You can see the rapid spike in temperatures in the Cascades (Stevens Is below) with a full 10-degree rise from 0100 to 0200 (Yikes). The snow telemetry went up a few inches prior.
Rain/Snow continues for the next 24 hours in the PNW, BC, and Alberta, with warming on Wednesday and cooling on Thursday. The map below shows additional snowfall through this period. Most of the action in the Tetons has ended. With the warming, I don't expect high totals through Thursday; however, some summits near Whistler, and interior BC could nab 4-9 inches.
Below: Winds will also be very strong on Wednesday with a decreasing trend as colder air moves in later in the day or by Thursday morning. Map: 10K winds aloft Wednesday.
Below: A Brief cold front moves into southern Canada and the north central Cascades of Washington on Thursday morning.
Below: Rain will change back to snow in the Cascades on Thursday morning. Overall totals will likley be in the 3-6 inch range for Stevens Pass and the Mt Baker Ski area. The bulk of the AR surge is decreasing as this colder air temporarily moves in. Warmer air moves back on Thursday night.
New England will offer powder on both Wednesday and later this week.
Below: Snow is filling in on Wednesday, favoring western areas of New England, including upstate New York resorts. Vermont and possibly the North Conway area seem favored initially. This loop ends on Friday. You can see the Greens lighting up as the week progresses, perhaps Thursday night bringing more snow that favors northern Vermont (Stowe, Sugarbush, Jay Peak). You might be able to get 2 chases this week.
The extended offers some very good news for areas of Canada, the Pacific Northwest (Oregon included), and perhaps the northern Rockies. Keep reading, as you will see something optimistic.
December 16-19
Next week will feature a longer duration period of cold air and ample moisture for the BC Coast. This will move south over the Cascades and northern Rockies next week (Tuesday-Thursday).
Below: 24-hour snow totals from Tuesday (12/16) to Thursday (12/19). There are several periods of double digits that currently favor Western BC, Cascade Range (WA/OR), Idaho, MT, and the Tetons. We are still nearly a week out, so amounts and track can still change.
Below: 4800-foot temps diving on this map beginning Tuesday (12/16) to Thursday (12/18). This will bring snow levels well below the bases of this region. The cold air seems to favor the northern areas of Oregon, into Washington, and Canada. Warmer air is noted at the end of this loop, moving back into these areas.
Below: Low pressure over the PNW and Northern Rockies early to mid next week digging south.
Below: Potential 4-day snowfall ending Thursday night (12/18) per the European model. The PNW might make a comeback with decent totals also noted in BC, Alberta, and the northern Rockies.
Below: GFS model showing a similar solution next week.
The ensembles also show a similar solution; however, the European models show the low digging a bit further south into the Sierra, however. It might be a stretch at this point. This storm deserves watching!
December 18-22 Outlook.
Looking further afield from late next week (12/18) to Tuesday (12/22), we might see another decent system move into the west, favoring the northern areas initially, before digging south by December 20-21. This optimism has been consistently showing up in the past several days. While models that far out can't gain high confidence, there are optimistic signals for many areas of the West.
Below: Later next week, 12/18-12/22, showing the ridge finally buckling, and possibly allowing more storms to dig south in the west. Map: December 18-22.
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Forecaster: Powderchaser Steve @powderchasersteve
