This is an abbreviated forecast strictly from the chase perspective. Well, that's why you're reading right? My forecast from yesterday was in line with the foot of snow that fell in the San Juan range on Thursday (12 at Wolf Creek, 10 at Purgatory, 9- Silverton) I was a bit surprised to see Telluride at 8 inches which tells me that enough moisture pushed north with the southerly winds to sneak out a decent day yesterday. The Wasatch scored the 2-6 inches in the forecast which started out cold and ended warm. The southern areas of Utah really reaped the goods with over a foot at both Eagle Point and Brian Head (Did anyone chase there yesterday?).
In the next 7 days, my focus is in several areas. The San Juan Range in Colorado is continuing to get snow this morning with models in the 3-6 inch range (Additional). Wolf Creek may be on the high end. If you are in southern Colorado enjoy the new powder day and the leftovers from Thursday. In Utah several impulses of energy, some heavy at times will land another 3-7 inches for the Cottonwoods by Saturday morning. There will be no single deep 6 hour event. Some thunderstorms are possible Friday with convective bands of energy moving into Utah currently. Snow levels remain high with base temps at Alta currently at 27 degrees (Rising into the mid 30's today). There will be a break from late Saturday morning to the late evening timeframe. Some areas above 8,000 feet could once again get dreamy creamy.
My eyes are on a system that moves into the Sierra Friday night (4-8 inches). That system will favor the northern Tahoe basin with cold enough temps to bring light snow to the valleys. Aim for Saturday for some taste of winter perhaps by the first chair (4-9 for the Sierra). Moisture and colder temps drag over Nevada (Ruby Mountain Range) Saturday before impacting the Wasatch late Saturday night to Sunday. This system is fast moving but will have better snow ratios than our storms in the previous 3 days (15:1). My best guess is for a quick hit of 4-9 inches over many areas in Utah by midday Sunday
That system will drag into Colorado ramping up light or moderate snow for Sunday (Storm ski) for most of the northern and central mountains. Nothing appears to hit double digits but some areas may get a good freshening (2-6). Plan to ride on Sunday during the day.
The real news is in the extended period I see several storms for the Sierra next week that eventually will bring heavy snow to much of the Rockies. The Sierra grabs another moderate storm for Monday morning. The firehose cranks wide open for the Tuesday night to Thursday timeframe. 2-3 feet of snow is likely at the Sierra crest (Seems to favor northern areas versus the south) by late Thursday. Aim to ride Wednesday and Thursday for the deepest days. Much of that moisture ends up favoring the northern Rockies including southern Montana, Tetons, Wasatch and much of Colorado by the end of next week. This all deserves watching.
BELOW: Total snowfall from all storms for the Sierra beginning Saturday and ending on Thursday. Most of the snow will fall between Tuesday night and Thursday. The northern areas are favored versus the southern near Mammoth. 3 feet is likely near the Crest.
Powderchaser Steve
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