Will La Niña Come Back for Winter 2025‑26?

Summer just started in earnest, but if you tour the lift lines of the internet, you can already hear the familiar preseason question: “Are we heading into a La Niña or an El Niño?”

This story originally appeared on Powder written by Powderchasers. You can check the article on Powder here

The latest research says... probably neither, yet.

As of midsummer, the tropical Pacific has settled into a bland, in‑between state, and forecasters give that ENSO‑neutral background an 80% chance of persisting through August.

Looking further out, the most likely winter outcome (48%) is that neutrality drifts right into December, with a weak La Niña running a close second at roughly 40%. A new El Niño barely registers on the odds board at all, stuck down near 10–15%. 

Why should skiers care about a few tenths of a degree in ocean temperature thousands of miles away? Because those subtle changes reorganize the winter jet stream. A La Niña‑cooled Pacific tends to shunt storms north into British Columbia, the Cascades and the northern Rockies while leaving the Southwest and Southern California thirstier.

Flip the sign—El Niño—and the map flips with it: the subtropical jet revs up, steering atmospheric firehoses toward the Sierra and the southern mountains while the Pacific Northwest and Canada often dry out.

When the ocean refuses to commit, as in a neutral year, the climate deck is not loaded. Storm tracks wobble, local oscillations (think Arctic Oscillation, Madden–Julian Oscillation, sudden‑stratospheric warmings) dictate where the powder piles up, and regional bust‑or‑boom stories become harder to script months ahead.

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If a weak La Niña does manage to organize by mid‑winter, history nudges the odds of colder, stormier weather north of roughly Interstate 80.

Resorts in Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana and interior British Columbia often cash in on those patterns, while skiers in Arizona, New Mexico and Southern Colorado should temper expectations. Because forecasters expect weak intensity at best, the classic La Niña stamp—deep North, dry South—would likely appear, but in softer focus than during the blockbuster “triple‑dip” of 2020‑22. 

The El Niño path is more of a Hollywood twist than a forecast scenario right now. Still, it’s worth remembering what that twist would look like: Tahoe and Mammoth catching conveyor‑belt storms, the Wasatch and San Juans poaching subtropical moisture, and the Coast Mountains wondering why the pineapple express keeps aiming south. The chance is small, yet not zero; the Pacific sometimes warms faster than models expect, and forecasters won’t dismiss that until summer heat releases its grip on the equatorial ocean. 

Before you rush to cash in your frequent‑flier points for a powder-chasing trip, keep two caveats in mind. First, the climate‑science community is now staring at the “spring predictability barrier,” the time of year when ENSO skill bottoms out: May through August.

Confidence climbs significantly once we pass the equinox (late-September), so check the monthly Climate Prediction Center updates this Fall. Second, even a perfectly predicted ENSO phase is only a nudge, not a guarantee. California blew up snowfall records during the 2022‑23 La Niña, a reminder that short‑wave chaos can overpower long‑range climate tendencies.

Putting it all together, the smart play for you is cautious optimism if your home mountain lies in the northern tier, and disciplined patience everywhere else.

Pencil in—but don’t ink—the Northwest and northern Rockies as early favorites. Keep a watchful eye on weekly model runs once September/October rolls around, because in a neutral or weak‑signal winter, those mid‑range forecasts will rule trip planning.

Above all, stay nimble: no matter which color the ENSO tilts towards in the spreadsheets, the best powder days still belong to the chasers willing to follow the storms when the Pacific finally tips its hand.