Discussion: In searching for chaseable powder, models are favoring the upper elevations of Whistler this weekend (Sat-Sunday) with leftovers aimed at the northern Cascades of Washington. Temperatures are too warm to chase, as rain will be falling at lower and mid elevations of the Cascades. Upper peaks of Whistler might present the only solution (Not exciting) for 4-8 inches of surf powder.
This wave brings moderate snowfall, favoring western Idaho (Brundage), and perhaps the Panhandle (Models are in disagreement) by Monday morning.
Storm skiing is possible from southern Montana (Big Sky) to the northern Tetons on Monday. The caveat is where the highest bands set up. We have questions about whether this pulls just south of Big Sky or closer to Jackson. Some models suggest a band just north of Jackson, perhaps Targhee, or further north to the Montana border (Moderate totals). I don't expect a deep event here since temperatures start warm (Low snow ratios) before the cold air midday Monday. The highest snow totals might land in the northern areas of Teton National Park and skirt away from the ski areas.
Storms pull into Oregon by Monday and spread south into the Sierra Range. The short-term NAM has a decent burst of snow for Mt Rainier and perhaps Crystal on Monday. The models are trending a southerly track closer to Mt Bachelor, extending into the entire Sierra Range by Monday night/Tuesday (Sierra will score double digits). That storm pulls into the Wasatch by midweek and is poised to track over Colorado.
Below: Snowfall has begun just above mid-mountain at Whistler on Saturday morning.
Sunday-Tuesday snowfall starts in the PNW Saturday and drags over Idaho and the northern Wyoming/Montana border by Monday. Oregon fares well here also, with models showing higher totals near Mt Bachelor; however, Timberline is a strong wildcard. Mt Rainier and Crystal might send a surprise on Monday (Small band setting up in the southern Cascades).
Below: Midweek brings snowfall into the Sierra (9-14) and pushes leftovers into the Wasatch and Tetons by Wednesday (Light to moderate totals) and Colorado (higher totals). Some models show a southerly push over New Mexico (Euro) versus the GFS shown here. The low tracks over Colorado with primarily SW winds that favor the southern and central mountains initially. NW flow is possible behind the initial surge. The core of I-70 and north to Steamboat are all in the mix here (Need to watch).
Below: GFS model for Alta midweek showing around 7 inches of snow. (Map: University of Utah)
Extended Powder Looks Deep
Below: The period from next weekend, February 14, out 8 days to February 23rd shows storms continuing to pile into the West. This will likely be a very deep period for many areas of the West. These systems appear colder and stronger than the storms due next week. WOO HOO
Below: Eye candy alert! 7-day total snowfall ending February 23rd (Week #2). Might the West be back? Caveat: Data 7-14 days out will change.
First Chair will be calling soon! High confidence in an exciting 2-week period. This kinda feels like the beginning of winter in the West.
Forecaster: Powderchaser Steve @powderchasersteve (Instagram)
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