Summary:
Snow is still falling in the 4 corners Tuesday morning. New Mexico came up short with Colorado scoring the goods near Wolf Creek. Next week looks active for Utah, Arizona, Colorado and New Mexico.
Forecast:
The departing storm has left 10 inches of blower pow for Wolf Creek Tuesday morning with up to 8 inches at Angel Fire in New Mexico. My original forecast stated that SE winds are not a good formula for New Mexico and some resorts would come up short. Then, last night the Short Term Resolution Models pumped more snow west, and higher totals for New Mexico and Colorado. I updated the totals to 9-16 inches for Wolf Creek Pass, I also updated the amounts for New Mexico that came up short. Southern storms are in my opinion the most finicky to forecast and often pose challenges including especially with a SE or S wind. Angel Fire come up with 8 inches and radar shows snow is still falling near Santa Fe. Taos was stuck in the donut hole all night with precipitation falling south and west. Taos does best with a NW wind direction but also can score deep dumps in a SW flow. I would be chasing to Angel Fire right now.
Light snow showers will continue for the San Juan Range from Wolf Creek Pass to areas south or east of Taos this morning. Areas west of Wolf Creek saw moderate snow on Monday night (6 inches-Purgatory, 5 inches at Monarch, 2 inches-Crested Butte).
The extended brings a moderate trough into Oregon late in the week that will move into the Rockies for the weekend. We will see an uptick of snowfall moving into the end of this week and next.
EXTENDED
The extended brings a moderate trough into Oregon by Thursday. This system (Finally) brings a storm track over Utah for Saturday/Sunday. A portion of that trough over Oregon will break south and provide some snow for the Sierra (light to moderate). The bulk of the energy in a moist S- SW flow will bring a good shot of snow for most of Utah. The American Model shows the highest energy might favor spots from Sundance and and south into central and southern Utah. The European has decent moisture further north. My forecast at this point will go with the decent snow totals for areas favored by S-SW flow (Snowbasin, Park City, Deer Valley, Big Cottonwood, Sundance). Little Cottonwood will come up with decent amounts, but even Sundance or another resort might win the game. Its too far out to predict with confidence at this point. Bottom Line: Decent potencial, on the warm side for temps, S or SW flow could produce higher totals in areas south or along I-80. Storm track needs to be watched as it could skirt further south.
This storm moves east over the 4 corners providing a good chance of decent snow for some areas in northern Arizona, San Juan Ranges of Colorado, and New Mexico. Some moisture is noted on the models extending up into Telluride, Aspen, Silverton, Steamboat and the western sections of the I-70 corridor as moisture spreads north from a SW wind direction.
Yet another storm moves in late next weekend into the Pacific Northwest impacting Oregon and Washington. This takes a similar or slightly northern track for the Rockies early next week. The system has colder air, better wind directions that might result in a solid snow producer for much of the west including Utah and most of north/central Colorado that really needs snow currently. Stay tuned as it's a stretch to talk about details being 6-8 days out. Hope is on the horizon.
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Enjoy the powder everyone.
Powderchaser Steve
