As we forecasted this latest storm performed very well for the southern San Juan Mountains and a bit of a dud for the northern San Juans (Telluride). If you were really lucky, you scored the 17-inch overnight dump at the Arizona Snowbowl on Monday.
Purgatory- 10 inches as of 6 AM Tuesday
Wolf Creek 12 inches as of 6 AM Tuesday
Winds were from the SW which favors the areas that nabbed deep snow last night. Snow will continue in the San Juan Mountains this morning with an additional 3-6 inches likely. Winds shift to the NW that will increase snowfall for Telluride albeit light. The northern and central mountains along I-70 mays see an uptick of light snow on Tuesday however amounts are likely to be under 4 inches. If your chasing pow get to the southern San Juans right now! If not, consider a flight to Seattle where cold blower will be waiting for Wednesday morning.
In the Cascades, snow begins late this afternoon and turns heavy tonight. Favored areas will be Stevens Pass or Crystal. Convergence zones of very cold air may enhance snowfall late tonight especially towards Stevens Pass. The GFS models really like the totals for Crystal, where the Euro is much less. It's a waiting game to see who ends up with the most snow. Early predictions are 11-15 for Stevens and 7-11 for Crystal. Snoqualmie Pass and Alpental will be on the high side as well. Baker should also score a solid powder day on Wednesday with 7-11 inches likely for 1st chairs. The Oregon Cascades will also get deep by late Wednesday.
Below: Total snowfall by Wednesday mid-morning for the Cascades. Higher amounts are likely due to colder temps and higher snow ratios! The Oregon Cascades will also get deep by late Wednesday.
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Elsewhere in the west, look for light to moderate snow for the Wasatch especially Wednesday and Thursday. The bulk of moisture will be in southern Utah, however, some sneak up amounts are possible for the Cottonwoods and Park City by early Thursday (Light to moderate).
SIgnificant moisture will be pushing down from the Cascades late this week, brushing the Sierra by Wednesday night (Light to moderate amounts). That system takes a direct aim over Arizona for Wednesday night and Thursday likely bringing double digits back to the Flagstaff area. Storm ski on Thursday and catch additional pow on Friday. Colorado will be in the spotlight from Wednesday night to Saturday. Significant moisture will be falling under SW flow in Colorado, especially Thursday/Friday. Feet of snow will be likely in similar spots that saw the greatest totals from the current system. This system should be a better performer (20 inches plus) and could perform well for the northern San Juans as well as the south. Telluride is a better contender for this storm (9-15) however the southern mountains will outperform (Silverton, Purg, Wolf). Winds shift to the NW by late Thursday or early Friday increasing snow for the northern and central mountains. Both Friday and Saturday may score some powder days along or north of I-70. amounts could be decent late week into Saturday.
Below: Total snowfall for Colorado through Saturday morning. The Telluride number is for the airport with higher amounts at the ski area. The southern San Juan mountains will overperform on this storm!
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Enjoy the powder everyone!
Powderchaser Steve
