SUMMARY:
If you were lucky this morning, you would have scored 17 inches of blower pow at Arizona Snowbowl this morning. We nailed the forecast and scored 1st chair today. Temps were very cold. You may not have guessed the summit is at 11,500 with very high-quality powder due to the elevation and cold temps. The next 24 hours highlights Colorado with up to 20 inches likely for the eastern San Juans. The western San Juans will see less. Midweek pow for the Cascades and all that action drags over the western Rockies including the 4 corners late this week.
FORECAST:
Snow will be falling heavily in the San Juan mountains of Colorado tonight into Tuesday. The models increase moisture Monday night especially areas from Durango to Pagosa Springs. Wolf Creek will likely see the highest storm totals of 12-17 inches by last chair Tuesday. Areas north of Durango (Purgatory or Silverton) will likely be slightly lower (7-10). Telluride is most likely going to end up with 4-9 inches for 1st chairs Tuesday. Some additional snow will fall during the day. Best ride times are 1st chair Tuesday through the mid-afternoon as snow continues throughout the day. Winds initially favoring the southern San Juans (SW) will eventually shift to the West or NW mid-morning Tuesday. The northern and central mountains (I-70 corridor, Monarch, Aspen, Summit County, Eagle County) is likely to see some light to moderate pow by Tuesday morning (3-5) with additional snow falling through Wednesday morning. Amounts will end up in the 5-9 inch range by late Tuesday or early Wednesday favoring areas along or south of I-70. Ski Cooper, Monarch, Aspen, Beaver Creek, and Breck are all on watch. Telluride may also benefit from the NW wind shift late Tuesday or Wednesday.
Midweek chases bring 6-10 inches for the Cascades in the Pacific Northwest (WA and OR score) Wednesday before dropping south into the Sierra (Moderate amounts), Wasatch (Light to moderate), Idaho (Light to moderate), and Arizona by Thursday (Heavy snow). Most Idaho will also reap light to moderate rewards by midweek. Arizona may take the awards for the deepest snow by Thursday.
That system takes a southern route similar to the current system bringing appreciable amounts of snow to the southern and northern San Juan Mountains of Colorado by Friday. Some snow will push north into Utah (light or moderate). For Northern, Utah moisture looks decent Thursday, however, wind shifts to the east or NE. That wind direction may favor the Uinta range or spots east of Park City. There are lots of uncertainty for northern Utah currently but confidence is high for some snow for much of the Wasatch range by Thursday. (Winds shift to a more favorable NW direction by Friday). For Colorado, the late week system should offer better odds of deeper snow for the northern San Juans (Telluride) and areas along or north of I-70 (Decent amounts for riding on Friday or Saturday). The southern San Juans will ultimately be the deepest by Friday AM. The northern areas along I-70 will offer decent choices by Friday mid-day or into Saturday.
EXTENDED
Wind shift back to the NW on Friday over Colorado. Snow showers continue over much of the northern and central mountains into Saturday. Another low-pressure system takes aim at the Pacific Northwest by Saturday.
Powderchaser Steve
