SUMMARY
Vicariously, I will imagine cold smoke powder this week. Yes, it's going to get deep in spots and fun with creamy dreamy pow. If you're lucky a few temperatures swings might lighten things up a bit during the PM hours. Your best bets are going to be southern Utah or Colorado with the Wasatch on watch for Friday-Sunday above 8,000 feet (Base area of Alta). Snow levels drop Sunday/Monday with my vicarious dream perhaps holding up?
FORECAST
Moisture will be streaming in from the south this week impacting southern Utah as early as Wednesday PM. Plan to ride Thursday at Brian Head or Eagle Point (Both have high elevation base areas) as it will be snowing during the day. The Wasatch Range gets shut out initially before some moisture works it's way north for Friday. Southerly wind direction will keep temps on the warm side so aim for elevations above 8,000 feet for the best turns this week.
Below: Silverton Colorado- Feeder road outside the ski resort Photo: Seth Waterfall
In the Wasatch models still, disagree on amounts with the GFS pretty bullish through Saturday (3-14 elevation dependant) and the Euro more in the 2-8 inch range. I think to split the difference is a fair bet with my forecast at 4-12 inches (Low elevations to upper mountain of the Cottonwoods) and 1-5 inches in the Park City area (Rain/snow mix at the bases).
In Colorado, the primary focus will be in the southern San Juan range. Heavy moisture and dense snow is likely for Thursday in southern Colorado. Winds are southerly initially which could focus the heaviest moisture north of Durango (Purgatory, Silverton). WInds shift to the SW at some point Thursday PM so my confidence in Wolf Creek is also increasing. Regardless of which resort you choose to ride (Silverton is temporarily closed), you will be riding the surface cream mixed with some dense pow (Occasional forced face shots) Thursday or Friday. The Euro delays most of the snow in Colorado until Thursday late AM so you may score best last chair or 1st chair on Friday morning. The GFS is faster.
Below: Total snowfall through Friday morning focussing on the southern San Juan range in Colorado. Some light or moderate snow is possible in the central and northern mountains late Friday AM so expect some freshening along I-70 (Light or moderate).
Below: University of Utah Plumes showing good consensus (Tight lines) and a mean of 20 inches for Wolf Creek Ski Area (These numbers may be slightly overdone) over 3 days. 4-7 likely late Thursday with steady light snow continuing into Friday.
The extended is a bit more exciting so keep reading.
EXTENDED:
Models are slowly dropping temps in Utah by Saturday night. It's' enough to make the pow a bit more desirable for Sunday. Additional moisture streams from the north Sunday for the Wasatch with your best chances of a decent day. Snow levels may drop to 6500 feet with some moderate amounts through Sunday night. The cream will turn to dreamy dense pow or perhaps mid-density at the summits. Rain/snow mix in Park City will turn to all snow by Sunday morning (Light or moderate amounts).
Below: Plumes from the University of Utah showing decent storm totals for Alta through the weekend (Caveat: Warm temps and no single deep event).
In Colorado, a shift of moisture further north is likely for Sunday or Monday. The latest EURO is increasing light to moderate snow along I-70 on Sunday and Monday. Its possible many resorts from Aspen to the Front Range score a moderate powder day for late Sunday or early Monday. The trend in winds brings westerly or NW flow (Good for west of the Divide) to the I-70 corridor initially Sunday with N or NE winds on Monday (Front Range resorts). The Front Range will be in the best scoring position for Monday. Significant snow may fall in the eastern Front Range Foothills through Monday night. Perhaps it's another Eldora, Winter Park, A-Basin or Loveland watch?
Below: Models are pretty far out for accuracy! BUT, if this holds up some decent totals may be possible near the Front Range of Colorado Monday.
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Powderchaser Steve
