SUMMARY
Snowpack in Colorado is averaging 139% of normal and in many areas DOUBLE that of all of last season. The last time we saw this much snow was in the mid-'90s. The next several days brings light snow to the southern Rockies increasing late week before the north sees an uptick possibly for the weekend. Warm air initially this week brings cream or dense snow to the 4 corners mid to late week. Colder temps will usher in better chances of some snowfall for the northern areas by the weekend.
FORECAST
Spring is upon us in 2 days! I look desperately for a chase (Vicariously) this week but fail to come up with the epic solution. Light to moderate snow is likely above 7,000 feet midweek for the Sierra (Wednesday-Thursday) that translates nicely over northern Arizona, southern UT, and Colorado by Thursday. Warm temps in the Rockies will keep most snow over 9,000 feet with perhaps 5-12 inches for some of the San Juan mountain range. I would focus on southern Utah (Eagle Point, Brian Head) for Thursday morning (Some amounts could be decent during the day).
In Colorado, light snow early this week turns moderate by Thursday morning. Storm ski some creamy dream Thursday PM-Friday. Areas near Durango or further east to Wolf Creek are favored. The wind direction is southerly pushing moisture just north of Durango. Without a westerly component, Wolf Creek may suffer somewhat, however, the models seem consistent on 5-12 inches during this timeframe. Telluride will see lower amounts. Perhaps Purgatory see higher amounts? The GFS is more bullish for Telluride than the Euro and also faster in timing (Thursday event). The Euro drags more snow to the south with a mid-morning Thursday arrival of precipitation. Regardless, aim to ride Thursday afternoon through Friday for the best chance of snow (Dense at the bases). Once the models have a consensus I will update this post.
EXTENDED
Colder air working in form the Pacific Northwest kicks in light good quality snowfall for the Cascades this weekend. That cooler air takes a northerly track over the Rockies for late Saturday-Sunday. Scattered snow will likely be the result for most of central and northern Idaho, Wyoming, southern Montana, and the Wasatch. Yesterday, one model run of the Euro showed 12-15 inches for the Wasatch and Tetons with today's model runs coming in much less. Currently, without great consensus, I would only push out a guess of steady light to occasionally moderate snow for many areas. Let's hope future model runs uptick the amounts again. You may consider northern Idaho for Sunday or Monday as moisture may increase in that zone.
Northern and central Colorado also see an increase of snowfall late this week into the weekend. I may be a bit more bullish for the Aspen area or resorts on the western side of I-70 but it's too early to predict with confidence. It may end up being a refresh versus an epic event?
Powderchaser Steve
