SUMMARY
Spring is in full effect with warming followed by short periods of cooling. These windows of cooling will allow you to jump off your bikes this week, and next with precise timing the key to stabbing some powder in the next 7 days. The Extended forecast offers the best hope of deeper decent quality snow.
FORECAST
Specifically, if you are chasing some spring powder my attention is focussed on the Cascades (Upper elevations), Whistler, and perhaps the Wasatch in the short term. Rain and snow will be falling in the Cascades and coastal BC through Monday with snow levels lowering on Saturday. Wind direction from the S or SW will favor the northern Cascades of Washington and areas of BC. Rain will be likely at the bases until late Friday night (Could be a mank layer below the new snow Saturday). Colder air hits the NW after midnight Friday so quality will improve for Saturday morning (Snow levels 3500 feet in the north and 4,000 feet in the south). Expect 6-9 inches of snow for your 1st turns Saturday morning and light snow will still be falling. Snow levels jump up by Saturday afternoon. Whistler may see higher amounts at the summits.
The Tetons stay active for the next 5 days, primarily light snow at upper elevations before a cooler system impacts them on Friday night (3-6). The sum totals may be 5-9 inches but it's spread out over several days, warm, followed by cooling on Saturday. Your best cooling period is late Friday night to early Saturday (Warming late AM Saturday). More snow is likely next week in the extended.
The Wasatch who just sneaked out 5-9 inches of dense snow (upper elevations Wednesday morning), has a decent chance of powder for Saturday morning. Models agree on between 3/4 to 1 inch of moisture through the period. Very warm temps Friday are followed by cool temps Saturday morning (6000-foot snow levels). The cooling will come at the tail end of the moisture so its a gamble on how things will ride for your 1st chairs Saturday (5-10). Winds from the SW or West may favor BCC before NW winds kick in a bit more moisture for LCC and even the Canyons side of Park City and Powder Mountain up north. Lower elevations of Powder and the bases of Park City will limit amounts somewhat in comparison to the Cottonwoods.
Colorado is on the ho-hum side of the equation. Light snow will be falling Saturday in many mountain locations.
Bottom line: Not sure any long term chases are really worth these storms. Baker could score depending on snow levels for Saturday (Dense at the base), while Utah shows merit also. Utah may come up short on amounts in some spots or overperform in others. Snow levels are high initially and only cooler for the tail end (Right side up snow, but lacking in deep low density). Stay on the higher terrain and hopefully get rewarded.
Below: Pretty impressive temperature drop in the extended forecast for Utah beginning Tuesday night. Temps are shown at 4800 feet. The cold front gets to Colorado by Wednesday morning.
EXTENDED POW CAST
Snow is progged to return to Montana (Montana Snowbowl, Big Sky, Bridger, Red Lodge Mountain) early Tuesday (Moderate). That system makes its way into the Tetons and the Wasatch Tuesday during the day. Snow may enhance Tuesday night into Wednesday. Currently, the models show the highest moisture setting up in southern Montana and extending south into the Wasatch range. It's possible that Red Lodge Mountain come up with some hefty totals by Wednesday morning. NE winds initially will favor this region. I would put similar odds with the Tetons and perhaps Big Sky as winds shift to the North or NW. Higher moisture focuses north of the Wasatch, however, NW winds late Tuesday to Wednesday will bring decent totals to this region (moderate or heavy). Colorado gets into the action on Wednesday with moderate snow likely for most of the central and northern regions. Winds shift to the north in Colorado Wednesday afternoon that may enhance snowfall for the Front Range (Ride late Wednesday and early Thursday). Chases are likely in these areas, but last-minute decisions will be made.
Below:You can see the colder air shifting into Western Colorado Wednesday morning. That will shift east later in the day over the Front Range. Temps are at 10K.
ANNOUNCEMENT
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Powderchaser Steve
