Well you have probably heard the bad news. The ridge in the West has arrived, and it's here to stay. There is a storm to discuss for the east coast, but even that one has some issues. We wish we could tell you about a pattern change, but confidence is not high at this point.
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East
So the east coast will finally get a decent snowstorm from Monday to Tuesday. However it's pretty fast moving, will pull in some warm air from the south, and has very strong winds too. The track has trended farther west, which puts more resorts on the warmer east side of the storm. Western NY and southern Quebec will be on the cold side, will see the biggest totals, and will get the best quality snow. Generally 8-12\"will fall at most New England resorts, but with warming temperatures during the storm it will be upside down. The exception to this will be central and northern Vermont where some orographic (upslope) snow will deposit better density snow during the latter part of the storm. If you want deep good quality snow, head to places like Le Massif and Mont Sainte Anne in Quebec. Even here, the timing isn't ideal with the heaviest snow falling during the day. We might as well throw a snow map on here.
(Image courtesy of Weatherbell)
We were thinking of checking out some cat skiing in the Chic Chocs at Chic-Chac, but they are a bit too far east to escape the warm air. Overall this will be a beneficial snowfall event for a region that is lacking in snow, but its not the best storm to chase. There are some really good deals this month up at Chic-Chac with 35% off of their packages. If you're looking for a big mountain experience in the East, message us for more details.
West
We're not going to sugarcoat it for you. The West is dry and there aren't any major signs of that changing any time soon. Some small storms are able to scrape the northern part of the region (interior British Columbia), but other than that it's pretty bleak. Interior BC will see a few grazing storms this week, both with the potential to drop around 8-12\" over. However, most resorts will not see this much, except for perhaps Revelstoke. Snow will gradually pile up here, with fluctuating temps, while the higher elevation cat and heli ops will see significant snow. In Northern Utah the air quality is adding insult to injury. The dreaded inversion has set up and it's only getting worse. Cold air at the surface is capped by warmer air aloft, allowing all the pollution to pile up in the valley. Look at the air quality along the Wasatch Front right now:
(Image courtesy of Purple Air)
Avoid going outside, if you live in this region. It's looking like another solid two weeks of this pattern before there is even a chance for some changes. And even the start of February doesn't look great. There are some sings of a pattern change around that time but it's not a home run. Hopefully as we get closer the models will come into better agreement. At this time confidence in that pattern change is not high. As we mentioned before, when these upper level wave three patterns take hold, they are quite persistent. We were on the good side of it during the second half of December with a trough over the West, but now we're stuck with this ridge.
(Image courtesy of Weatherbell).
You hate to see it. So, as the title of this post says, don't kill the messenger please. We're just as bummed as you are.
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That's all for today.
Luke
