OPENING DAY JACKPOT: MAMMOTH LINES UP 8–13” FOR FRIDAY, TAHOE BUILDS M

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HIGH-LEVEL SUMMARY

A potent midweek storm targets the Sierra with strong southwest winds, high snow levels at onset, then a swift drop and colder, higher-quality snow Thursday night into Friday. Mammoth is the clear chase on Friday’s opening day with 8–13 inches from Thursday night through Friday daytime and light winds. Tahoe areas build respectable totals by Friday morning, but most remain closed; Mt. Rose stays the only open Tahoe option with lighter amounts and earlier wind concerns.

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KEY POINTS

Good. Colder air arrives Thursday night, pushing snow levels to around 6,000 feet and lifting snow-to-liquid ratios into the 11–13 range. That produces a right-side-up finish with improving quality for Friday turns, especially at Mammoth where winds ease and temps sit in the 20s.

Bad. Wednesday night through Thursday brings strong southwest ridge-top winds, plus initially high snow levels near or above many Tahoe bases. Early snow is denser where SLR sits below 9, and wind can impact upper mountain operations and snow quality.

Wildcards. Small shifts in storm track and the exact snow-level step-down will matter near base elevations in Tahoe. Localized banding late Thursday could produce upside for select crest-adjacent resorts, while wind shadowing could trim amounts in a few valleys.

DAILY FORECAST

Wednesday, Nov 12

A warm, breezy lead-in with clouds building. Light high-elevation snow begins late for a few peaks, but amounts are negligible. No chase.

Thursday, Nov 13

Chase guidance: Hold fire. Strong winds and initially high snow levels keep quality mixed in Tahoe, and Mammoth is still closed.

Mt. Rose (open): Combined Wednesday night plus Thursday day brings about 2–4 inches with SLR increasing from dense to mid-density. Southwest winds are strong in the morning and remain breezy, which can reduce quality on exposed terrain.
Tahoe closed mountains: Palisades and Sugar Bowl stack 4–7 inches by late day; Kirkwood outperforms with 8–12 inches by late day. Heavenly and Northstar run 3–5 inches and 3–4 inches respectively, with rain or wet snow possible at some base areas early.
Mammoth (closed today): Big production already, 8–13 inches from Wednesday night through Thursday, but save the legs for opening day.

Friday, Nov 14

Chase guidance: Mammoth is the target. A colder, lighter refresh arrives overnight with minimal wind.

Mammoth (opens today): 8–13 inches from Thursday night through Friday day, SLR near 12, temps mid 20s, and light winds. This is the deepest open-mountain option with the best combination of quantity and quality.
Mt. Rose (open): 2–3 inches from Thursday night through Friday day on top of Thursday’s modest totals. Quality improves with colder temps and lighter winds. Good for locals, not a statewide chase.
Tahoe closed mountains: Palisades and Sugar Bowl add 4–7 inches by Friday morning with colder, higher-quality snow on top. Kirkwood adds 8–12 inches through Friday day. Heavenly and Northstar tally 3–5 inches and 3–4 inches respectively.

FORECAST DETAILS

A multi-day storm arrives with strong southwest flow shifting westerly Friday. Winds peak Wednesday night into Thursday morning with ridge gusts commonly high. Snow levels start high, near 7,500–8,500 feet early Thursday, then fall to around 6,000 feet by Thursday night and hold near that level Friday, improving base-area coverage. Snow character trends from denser on Thursday (SLR generally 6–8) to lighter Thursday night into Friday (SLR 11–13), which sets up a right-side-up profile. Temperatures cool from lower 30s Thursday to the 20s by Friday morning at mid to upper elevations.

Standout storm totals by Friday morning:

Mammoth: 16–26 inches (strongest production, then light winds for opening day).
Kirkwood: 14–23 inches with the coldest, best quality late.
Palisades Tahoe & Sugar Bowl: 8–13 inches with a colder cap Thursday night.
Heavenly: 6–9 inches, early higher snow levels may trim lower-mountain quality.
Northstar: 5–8 inches, similar timing to other I-80 resorts.
Mt. Rose (open): 4–6 inches by Friday morning, then an additional 2–3 inches through Friday day.

Wind direction runs SW Wednesday night and Thursday, easing and turning W to NW by Friday with much lighter speeds. Expect the best surface conditions where wind stays lighter and the Thursday-night fluff can sit cleanly on top.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

After a brief lull, the pattern favors additional Pacific energy next week with below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation signals focused on the West. Another storm is possible in the Nov 17–23 window, with the Sierra favored if the trough reloads.

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