Summary:
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A series of cutoff low-pressure systems is expected to impact parts of the West from Sunday night through Thursday. The Sierra sees the moisture first, with 10–14 inches possible at the highest elevations. Colorado finally enters the mix, with parts of the San Juans potentially seeing up to 12 inches or more as systems track up through southern Utah and the Four Corners. The Northern Rockies and Utah are trending down, but will still see 5-10 inches in select areas. PNW stays dry. Not the blockbuster storm we were hoping for, but there is still hope as the remainder of the month is trending fairly active. Scroll to the Extended section for a look at the next series of storms lining up for after next weekend.
Expected Snow Totals Through Thursday (11/20):
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California:
Palisades Tahoe: 6-10"
Mammoth: 8-14"
Colorado:
Silverton: 8-12"
Red Mtn Pass: 8-10"
Telluride: 4-8"
Aspen: 3-6"
Vail: 3-5"
Breck: 2-4"
A-Basin: 3-6"
Winter Park: 4-6"
Steamboat: 6-10"
SouthWest:
Arizona Snowbowl: 6-10"
Taos: 3-7"
Utah:
Brianhead: 6-10"
Alta/Bird: 4-8"
Northern Rockies:
Tetons: 5-10"
Bridger: Trace-2"
Big sky: Trace-2"
SunValley: Trace-2"
PNW:
Mt. Baker Ski Area: 1-3"
Timberline: 1-3"
Canada:
Whistler: 3-7"
Big White: 2-4"
Revy: 2-4"
Sunshine/Bnaff: 3-5"
Below: Three cutoff low-pressure systems are funneling into the Southwestern U.S. This is due to a dip in the jet stream, which is blocking storms from entering the U.S. from the North, leaving the Northern Rockies and the Pacific Northwest with low to no snow totals.
Below: The jet stream has dipped far to the South, creating an effective block along the West Coast that prevents storms from reaching the Pacific Northwest and Northern tier of the U.S.
California:
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On Sunday morning, a cold front will move into California, bringing a change from rain to snow. Snow levels will fall to around 7,000 ft in Lake Tahoe and 7,500 ft at Mammoth, likely keeping snow above the base areas. Upper-mountain totals should reach 8–12 inches in Tahoe and 10–14 inches at Mammoth. The heaviest snowfall is expected Sunday night through Monday, with the storm tapering by midday Tuesday.
Below: Total snowfall map for California through Tuesday (11/18).
Below: The cold front entering the West on Sunday and trending colder as the week goes on.
Colorado:
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Snow is expected to begin late Sunday night and continue through early Friday morning. The San Juans lead this event, with 8-14" by Thursday afternoon for Silverton and Red Mountain Pass. Telluride should also do well with 8" by Thursday. Farther north, Aspen and Vail will likely see 3–6" as they catch the northern edge of the storm. Additionally, as the storm moves Northwest through the state, a potential upslope setup on the west side of the Divide could favor Keystone and A-Basin for 3-8". In northern Colorado, Steamboat finally enters the mix with totals near ~8". Overall, this is a much-needed storm to build Colorado's snowpack, with active conditions in place for most of the week.
Utah:
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Brian Head is the standout, favored by the southwest storm track with 6–10" by the end of the day Tuesday. Snow levels remain well below the base for the entire event.
In the Wasatch, expect 4–8" from Monday morning through Wednesday midday in both Little and Big Cottonwood Canyons at upper elevations. Snow levels are near 7,000 ft in the canyons, which is below all base areas. For Park City and Deer Valley, look for 3–5". Snow levels hover around 7,000 ft, which is just above the town/base areas, so a rain-snow mix is possible there initially. Snow Levels are expected to drop below the bases by Tuesday evening, turning precipitation to snow.
Below: Total Snowfall Map through Thursday Night for: CO, UT, AZ, NM, CA. The San Juans look to be in the bullseye.
Northern Rockies:
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Due to storm tracks shifting South, Idaho and Montana are expected to remain mostly dry, with only a trace of snow. In Wyoming, the Tetons and Wind River Range can expect 5–10 inches above 8,000ft. Snow levels will start near 8,000 ft and lower to the valleys by Wednesday morning.
PNW/CANADA:
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Canada sees a small storm during the same Monday-Wednesday timeframe with the highest totals in the 3-5" range. The PNW is almost completely dry, with maybe a chance for a dusting at best around Mt. Baker.
Extended:
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Dry Friday-Sunday. Then, a very active pattern for the West is expected to return next Sunday and is likely to continue through Thanksgiving. Cold air looks to stay finally.
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Forecaster: Mark Mazzatta
