High-Level Summary: 2 storms.
2 storms will impact the West in the next 7 days. Storm #1 moves into the PNW on Sunday and transitions east over the northern Rockies on Monday. A stronger and colder system slams into the PNW by midweek and will deliver higher snow totals to the Cascades (WA, OR), and eventually the Rockies. The path of this storm remains a bit uncertain, with some models showing a slower and cut-off solution over the Four Corners that would bring big numbers into Colorado by next weekend. The GFS brings a faster hit over the northern and central Rockies (Still decent totals in many areas).
There is high confidence in the PNW, Idaho, Wyoming, Southern Montana, and areas of western Colorado. The Wasatch remains in the 7-15 inch range with possibly higher totals if the European solution proves correct.
Storm #1 pushes into the West on Sunday, favoring the Cascades of Washington and areas of BC/Alberta that bring moderate totals through Monday morning. That system edges east and favors the northern Rockies, albeit weakening. The northern PNW is favored, especially Mount Baker Sunday/Monday (6-10 inches). Alberta and interior BC resorts will also pick up moderate totals (4-7).
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Storm #1 Sunday/Monday
This impacts the PNW and Canada from Sunday to Monday, taking a northern track over the West.
Below: Snow totals from Sunday to Tuesday tease the northern Cascades of Washington, split between daytime powder on Sunday and some additional moderate totals into Monday morning (5-11). Interior BC/Alberta grab light to moderate totals with some leftovers headed into northern Montana/Idaho. Northern Utah might sneak out 3-7 inches above 7500 feet by Wednesday morning (Model varies with the Euro not shown, a bit more optimistic). Bottom Line: The appetizer storm before the main event by mid to late next week (Keep reading). Northern Cascades seem favored Sunday/Monday, with perhaps some lucky April Fools' surprises of moderate snow in the Wasatch (Wednesday). BC/Alberta grab light to moderate totals also. Not a huge weather maker.
Storm #2- Wednesday to Saturday (Next Week)
A more powerful low moves inland over the PNW by mid next week and takes a track over the Rockies. The big question and variance in models is where this low digs by later next week in the Rockies. The PNW is a sure bet to receive ample snowfall midweek. The Tetons and western Idaho seem to be good bets also on most models, with southern Montana (Big Sky) in the cards also.
There are widespread mode differences on the track of the storm mid to late next week.
Below: The European solution tracks low pressure into the Four Corners, increasing the odds of a higher moisture tap from the south pushing higher totals into the Rockies (UT/CO/WY). This solution also shows the low possibility stalling later next week with snow peaking over Colorado by Saturday/Sunday (Later next week). This solution is slower and deeper by late next week or the weekend.
Below: The American GFS tracks the low further north over the Rockies with faster timing of Thursday/Friday. This might result in a bit less snow for Utah, but still a good track for Wyoming, Montana, and most of western Colorado.
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Below: Total snowfall through next Sunday (4/6) if the European model verifies with a southerly track, slower timing over the Four Corners, cranking higher totals into the Wasatch, Uinta Range, and especially Colorado and perhaps northern New Mexico later next week/weekend. We are simply too far out to forecast this with confidence. The PNW is showing high confidence of double digits with this storm. Southerly winds midweek might favor Crystal and areas south. The Sierra gets brushed. Keep reading for the other solutions.
Below: The GFS solution shows the quicker hit, and a northerly track still looking decent for the PNW, Idaho, Tetons, and Colorado, with the Wasatch on the fence with moderate totals. This track favors peak snowfall by Thursday/Friday next week in the Rockies. Colorado seems favored on the western slope vs the Euro above that shows a deeper and more widespread event, including New Mexico. These totals are through Friday morning (4/3).
Below: Cold air mid to later next week moves over the PNW, Rockies, and northern Sierra Range. The European model shown here pushes that cold front well into Utah and Colorado by late next week.
The GFS (Not shown) has the coldest air (-13 °C) slightly further north, which could result in less snow along the Front Range of Colorado.
Below: 24-hour incremental snow totals from Wednesday to late Saturday next week on the GFS highlighting a northerly track over Idaho and the Rockies.
Below: European model- 24-hour incremental snow totals from Wednesday to Saturday next week, highlighting a further south trajectory over the Wasatch and Four Corners. This also puts higher totals in the Front Range resorts of Colorado (Colder air).
Forecaster: Powderchaser Steve @powderchasersteve (Insta).
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