Powderchasers is issuing a powder alert for an extended period of powder in the west. Storminess returns to New England next week. The next 7-10 days looks very active for many ski areas.
Highlights:
* 3 storms in the west this week
* Double digits are possible in the next 24 hours for Colorado/Utah (Isolated areas).
* Storm #2 midweek might favor Colorado with Utah wildcards. Similar to storm #1 but further east.
* Storm #3 late in the week (Weekend) might bring feet to many ski areas in the west.
*New England scores double digits early next week (Tuesday/Wednesday)
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Storm #1 is underway in Utah, with 2-5 inches showing up on telemetry in the past few hours. West winds are producing decent totals early Sunday morning from the Ogden area mountains (Snowbasin, Powder) into Park City and the Cottonwoods. Winds are shifting to the NW, which will increase the totals for the Canyons side of PC, Powder Mountain, and the Cottonwoods. NW winds will veer to NNW by midday Sunday, and finally northerly after 5 PM. North winds will effectively shut down the snow feed for most mountain areas.
The peak precipitation rates are going to be AM Sunday, slightly tapering in the afternoon. Very cold air will produce high snow ratios (15-18:1) and likley snow totals from 5-10 inches. Some higher totals are possible in the Cottonwoods. The snow density is going to be very light, which is not ideal for base building, but we will take it.
Below: Snowbasin Resort (Closed) nabbing decent totals thus far on Sunday morning (11 AM post time).
Below: Alta should catch up as the winds veer NW before shutting things down by 5 PM with north winds.
Below: canyon's side of PCMR is favored with this pattern, with moderate to heavy snow noted on the webcams.
Below: I had to double-take this! Solitude is open with 1 run. Look at those powder fans (Kudos to them) for being up there on what looks like a mid-winter day. Do you recognize anyone in this line?
Below: With 10K foot temperatures at -10C it is important to look at total water on the maps. With 16-18:1 snow ratios, we can expect widespread snow totals from 5-9 inches. We can see close to .05 inches of liquid in a few areas. I think this is a reasonable estimate. Brighton Crest Telemetry is already at 5 inches as of 11 AM Sunday.
Colorado fires Sunday night into Monday with many mountains grabbing decent and perhaps double digits in a few areas.
Colorado Highlights: SW flow turns West Sunday evening, initially favoring the southern and central mountains. West flow and WSW are ideal for Crested Butte. The winds shift NW behind the cold front after midnight Sunday. Monday morning will feature snow showers in areas favored by NW flow (Vail Pass, Breckenridge), and areas near or west of the Divide (WP, etc.).
Below: Very cold air will overspread Colorado by 11 PM on Sunday. This will also see a wind shift to the NW, pushing moisture closer to the I-70 corridor and northern mountains into Monday morning.
Below: Water totals are very healthy, 3/4 inch for many locations in the central and a few spots in the southern mountains of Colorado. I think you can see 6-12 inches of snow for those areas highlighted in Blue, with 4-8 inches with the darker greens (I-70 corridor). Cold air orographics along I-70 (Vail Pass) might overperform when the winds shift to the NW. Beaver Creek will do well with this storm with the winds initially from the WSW and West (West is ideal for them)
Below: Colorado winds at 10K show this distinct SW flow Sunday, veering west Sunday evening, and NW after midnight into Monday. This is a good pattern for many locations to grab some freshies from south to north.
New England Powder Alert: Models are waffling on a storm that will impact New England primarily on Tuesday (December 2) and into early Wednesday. The models originally had this storm over northern New England. The trend is for snowfall to fall further south over the central and southern mountains of Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. Southern Vermont, New Hampshire, and areas from North Conway to Sunday River in Maine look deep. The northern Greens are also highlighted with some decent totals.
Below: National Blended models showing total snowfall in New England through Wednesday (12/3). There are still model discrepancies on how far south the bulk of precipitation will fall. The short-term models (NAM 12) show a more northerly track.
Extended Deepness for the west!
There are 3 more storms on the horizon in the next 7 days.
Below: Midweek storm appears similar to the current one, starting in Canada and the PNW (Early next week) and zooming into the Rockies in the midweek period. General storm totals appear to be modest (4-10) with perhaps some higher totals in the interior BC. This storm might favor Colorado a bit over Utah, similar to the last one late this week. Map: 24-hour snow totals on the moving map from Tuesday-Wednesday.
The 3rd storm due this weekend should produce healthier totals that will easily reach double digits in many locations. This is the one to watch. This might continue into the following week.
Below: 24-hour snowfall totals from Friday (12-5) to Sunday (12-7). We are still 6-7 days out, so confidence is only moderate on details, but overall, this looks to be the best storm of the week! There appears to be a non-stop surge during this period (2 strong waves).
Below: December 6 (Next weekend) through December 11 (Thursday). A very active period will ensue. You can see storm #3 (discussed above) first dropping into the Rockies next weekend (12/6), followed by another Potent storm early the following week (12/8). That storm dives a bit further south (Sierra might be in play). Another system is possible entering the PNW on Thursday (12-11). Let's hope this holds up, as we are beyond the scope of confidence in the 7-10 day period.
Below: Total snowfall in the west through Saturday, December 6th (All 3 storms combined). This will allow many ski areas to open. The Sierra might gain some traction the following week, but it is too early to forecast.
Forecaster: Powderchaser Steve @powderchasersteve
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