SUMMARY
WOO HOO! Colorado really scored again with up to 2 feet being reported at Highlands and 12-18 inches at Vail and certain spots in Summit County. I-70 was closed near Vail Pass for most of the day so locals were reaping up refills all day. My forecast yesterday was for 12-17 in Summit and Eagle with 2 feet plus for Aspen and Crested Butte. Most resorts met these numbers however CB came up short. The next 24-36 hours looks chaseable from Utah to Colorado. It's not going to be a repeat on numbers from the last 2 storms, but quality will be better than the one that is exiting currently in Colorado.
FORECAST
If your chasing pow, consider Utah, Wyoming, and Colorado. Snow will redevelop Friday night in the Wasatch. Amounts in the early morning will likely not exceed 2-4 inches. Warm air advection under SW flow will usher in decent moisture for the morning hours above 6500 feet. Snow will increase at some point Friday morning providing a likely chance of heavy snow by mid-morning. SW winds will favor Big Cottonwood or points north to Park City or Snowbasin. Confidence in BCC is high, with moderate confidence for points north. I would focus on cams from Snowbasin, Park City, Deer Valley, and Brighton as the top contenders. Little Cottonwood and Solitude will be next on the list. A cold front makes it's way into Utah by early afternoon cranking up snowfall for areas of the Cottonwoods (LCC or Solitude favored). Storm ski Friday with generally 5-10 inches by afternoon. Higher amounts are possible in some SW favored areas. Some areas, even LCC, may see lower amounts. Winds shift to the W and NW by late afternoon cranking out additional snow favoring the Canyons side of PCMR, and Little Cottonwood. Additional 3-7 inches is possible in post-frontal moisture with the wind shift. The Good: Good quality snow by compared to the past 2 days. Comes in heavier with SW warm air and finishes cold with NW flow (Right side up). The Bad: Mix of day snow and evening with no overnight deep dump. That can also be good for a sneak up powder day or reverse snow totals (Low in the morning and high in the afternoon). My confidence in who sees the highest snow is still on the moderate side. Might be some Northern Wasatch surprises?
Below: The Cottonwoods are in the yellow zone, with around an inch of water. That might end up being in the 6-12 inch range by late Friday night. Some models are pointing to higher amounts in the northern Wasatch near Snowbasin (This map shows less). Most likely highest amounts will be in BCC Friday.
Below: University of Utah Plumes showing a mean of around 18 inches through Saturday near Alta. There are a decent amount of model runs showing less (Below the mean dark lines) so uncertainty exists. My guess is that 6-12 is a safe bet but higher amounts are possible in a few isolated areas. Big Cottonwood or even Snowbasin may come out ahead?
In the Tetons, expect steady light snow adding up nicely by the end of Friday ( 8 inches). Some light snow continues into the weekend. Good quality!
For Colorado, the main event won't get started until late AM or early PM in most areas. The 4 corners may see snowfall on the earlier side and areas near Summit on the later side. Light snow is likely Thursday night that should increase by afternoon Friday. Moderate to occasionally heavy snow is likely into Saturday morning (I-70 will be empty so everyone can leave at 7 AM). This storm seems to favor the Elks near Aspen, Crested Butte, and most of the central mountains. SW wind direction will funnel snow into these areas including Silverton late Friday. Temps will still be above average for this time of year but certainly cooler than the last storm. Winds shift more westerly late Friday into Saturday favoring areas further north. Cooler air will drop the snow levels to most valley locations late Friday. Monarch, Breckenridge, Beaver Creek and most of the western I-70 corridor may be in the hunt for Saturday morning. I am most confident for areas south of I-70 especially Friday. Telluride is a wildcard with unfavorable wind direction, but looking decent on the models by PM Friday (4-7). Most resorts by Saturday morning will report 5-10 inches on the I-70 corridor and 6-14 inches south towards the central mountains. Some of that snow will have fallen Friday afternoon. The Good: Quality improving on density on this storm. Decent totals. The Bad: Split snow totals between Friday and Saturday but if lucky it won't hit hard until 2-3 PM Friday. It's the weekend! not sure that matters anymore?
Below: Vail Pass has decent consensus (Tight lines) with a mean of 12 inches by Saturday morning. 4-5 may fall prior to 5 PM Friday? Split somewhat between late Friday and early Saturday Pow.
EXTENDED:
A decent looking cold storm with NW winds finally hits BC and the Cascades early next week. This might drag over the Sierra for a high-quality event early to mid next week. Snow showers with colder temps are likely in Utah for most of early next week. The Sierra storm seems to take a southerly track next week and may be decent for AZ, NM, and south/central Colorado by mid to late next week. Scattered snow showers will stream north into most areas of the central or perhaps even the northern Rockies ahead of the low.
Enjoy the powder everyone! It's super fun writing posts with deep snow, plus Colorado is kicking Utah's butt this week!
Powderchaser Steve
