Snow is still falling in Northern areas of New England that will ramp up again next week. The west stays mainly dry with the exception of some brush by storms in Montana, Wyoming, and Colorado. The high pressure in the west is going to stick around until at least until the 3rd or 4th week of November. New England might score double digits next week.
Jay Peak reported 3-4 inches last night with snow continuing this morning for primarily northern New England. It's possible that Jay if they were open, would be reporting 5-10 inches but we have yet to verify that. Webcams still showed heavy snowfall as of noon today. Our forecast was for 3-5 inches with higher amounts in the northern mountains.
Below: Snow cam from Sugarbush as of 2:30PM EST Friday. WOO HOO
The cold air, NW flow and perhaps some lake effect snow bands are all contributing to snow showers continuing, especially northern Vermont. In the extended forecast another round of winter will be approaching New England late Monday into Tuesday. This could be a decent event!
The west will continue to see a blocking ridge of high pressure forcing any troughs well north of the States before dipping back over the midwest and Northeast. Models show some moisture from the far western edge of these systems just grazing Colorado, especially Sunday night and Monday (Front range). Montana and Wyoming have a better chance of slightly higher amounts on Sunday (Central areas, with Glacier National Park a better bet).
Below: low-pressure troughs remain east of many ski areas this week, with some brush by snow accumulations for resorts near the Continental Divide or east. Central Montana near Glacier National Park may see higher amounts.
The long term shows a chance of the western ridge breaking down towards the 3rd or 4th week of November and continued chances for snow in the east.
Here is an update list of open and openings from Colorado (Courtesy of Open Snow- Colorado Daily Snow).
Open Every Day:
* Arapahoe Basin
* Winter Park
* Breckenridge (starting Fri, Nov 8 and every day after)
* Copper (starting Fri, Nov 8 and every day after)
* Monarch (re-opening Fri, Nov 8 – Sun, Nov 10)
* Wolf Creek (re-opening Sat, Nov 9 – Sun, Nov 10)
Snow will redevelop in New England on Monday. Heavier bands are likely, late Monday into Tuesday. It's likely that many areas favoring central and northern Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine report some double digits by late Tuesday. We are still too far out for high confidence, but the model consensus is encouraging.
Below: Total snowfall through Tuesday night favoring Northern New England with some significant snow possible.
In the West, the GFS models showed a moderate trough for the November 18th timeframe entering the Sierra and dropping into the 4 corners (CO, NM, AZ, UT). That has nearly dried up this morning (Still some moisture on the models, but not significant). The Euro never had this feature. In fact, the Euro keeps things pretty dry out west until at least the November 20th timeframe. The GFS is a bit more optimistic on both ensemble and operational runs of some snow but has shifted moisture towards the Cascades in the long run. Bottom Line: Very low confidence for any major systems in the west, perhaps some brush by storms through November 18-20. A bit higher confidence is in our forecast for the extended range in the 3rd or 4th week of November.
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