Well, if you chased to Montana hopefully your at Great Divide Ski area where 7 inches fell overnight (Still snowing lightly). I was nervous about the NE wind direction for Big Sky that pushed most of the moisture north and west of the Gallatin and Madison ranges. Some light snow will pick up in these areas later this morning into Thursday night as winds shift more northerly. It's possible that Bridger sneaks out a cold smoke surprise for Friday, but the science is lacking (Risky chase but beneficial if it happens). The Montana chase for my team was to position and hold west of Idaho Falls since our confidence decreased in the afternoon with the model data lacking anything deep.
Below: Overnight snow at Great Divide Ski area In western Montana
Most areas of the Sierra came in with 12-15 inches (Warm) and 6-7 overnight. Temps at Squaw was near 30 degrees all night with snow falling at the base since 5 PM (5 inches).
Very warm temps in Utah and Wyoming will eventually fall by Friday morning. Light to moderate snow is likely for the Tetons (Peaking Friday (2-5)) with heavier snow in the Wasatch (5-12) Significant snow (12-16 inches) will be falling in the Wind River Range of Wyoming east of the Jackson Valley extending out to central areas of the Cowboy State. In Utah, snow levels jump from 10,000 feet to 5500 feet by mid-morning Friday. Most areas including the northern Wasatch (Powder may be favored), Park City (Canyons side) and the Cottonwoods (Solitude or Alta favored) will see decent snowfall by 10 AM Friday. Ranges will be 4-6 inches at lower elevations and some isolated pockets of 6-12 at the summits of the Cottonwoods and some isolated areas of the northern Wasatch range (Powder Mountain). Due to the sharp cool down expect some good crunch on Friday underneath the new snow in certain areas.
Below: Utah Precipitation with the NAM showing up to 2 inches of moisture which I feel is overdone. Generally, an inch of precip is likely in most areas with warmer temps initially lowering snow ratios until Friday morning. It's possible that double digits occur by Noon at some favored spots in the Cottonwoods.
Colorado gets teased on Friday PM favoring the northern mountains (Steamboat may see 3-6 inches) and trickling south along I-70 and even the northern San Juan range this weekend The models disagree on amounts. The Euro shows only 2-4 inches for the I-70 corridor for Saturday morning and 3-6 for Steamboat by late Friday night (Some snow will fall on Friday north of I-70). The GFS is the optimist with snow increasing in Summit County late Friday night to Saturday. Some snow may continue into Sunday. If the GFS wins, you may see 3-5 inches for Saturday morning and another 2-4 possible for Sunday. Aspen also appears to benefit with NW flow. I would expect Saturday to be soft on top of frozen early, followed by additional snow into Sunday if the GFS wins. Otherwise less snow will fall Saturday night over the mountains with higher amounts east of Denver (Euro). Some models show snow increasing snow Sunday/Monday over the southern mountains. You may find Monday sneaks in some pow for the San Juan range. Bottom Line: There will be snowfall in Colorado this weekend with my best guess of steady periods of light or moderate amounts enhanced in certain pockets of intense cells. There is no significant amount in any 6 hour period but the sum of Friday PM to Sunday could be decent in some spots along I-70 including Aspen to the south.
In the EXTENDED period, significant moisture will be flowing into the northern Rockies Tuesday-Wednesday. Temps are the wildcard! Very warm temps Monday/Tuesday will be followed by a cold front late Tuesday/Wednesday. That cold air may reach southern Montana and stall. The cold air may only reach central Montana (Models disagree). Cooler air will likely reach the Tetons at some point next week. My early forecast is for significant low elevation rain in the Tetons turning to all snow at some point midweek (Especially mid-mountain). Colder air may be found in Montana so Big Sky and Bridger are strong wildcards (Less moisture than the Tetons but colder temps and moderate snow). \"It's going to be a wild midweek period\". Someone will score FEET of snow at the summits. You may start out eating cheese early week followed by some sponge cake midweek.
Below: One model showing cold air just reaching the Madison Range of southern Montana by late Tuesday night. Cooler air to the south where snow levels may stay a bit higher. Need to narrow in the models as we get closer to the weekend.
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Enjoy the powder everyone!
Powderchaser Steve
