SUMMARY
The Trifecta double-digit chase was a full on success last weekend (Steamboat, Vail, Telluride). 3 chases in Colorado with over 50 inches while on the chase, and double digits for lift openings each day! Telluride delivered the Grand Finale with 12-14 inches of medium density pow. I can't remember any other time that allowed a 3-day chase in Colorado where it snowed doubles up north 1 day, central areas the 2nd and in the San Juans for the 3rd day. Sure it's snowed for 3 or more days in Colorado, but not where it only snowed north to south on specific periods. The next 5 days will be warm and wet with heavy snow likely only at upper elevations. There is no perfect solution.
An Atmospheric River of moisture originating from southern California will spread over the southern Sierra and Rockies this week.
Temps will be warm in the Rockies with slightly cooler temps for the Sierra early this week.
Snow will once again be falling in the Sierra this week, with a trend for cooler temps as the week progresses. The northern Sierra will be shut out of the heaviest snowfall until perhaps late week. The southern Sierra reaps the best benefits Tuesday night into Wednesday with snowfall continuing periodically through the week. Mammoth might be your best solution (Higher precip totals, colder temps) for Wednesday morning with an excess of a foot likely. The northern Sierra should score decent amounts mid to late week with a slight cooling trend (Snow levels at 7,000 feet early this week dropping to Lake Level late week).
Below: Total snowfall for the Sierra through Thursday morning favoring the southern Sierra initially with the northern areas picking up somewhat mid to late week.
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Elsewhere in the west, I have looked desperately for some cold deep snowfall for the Rockies. Deep, \"Yes\" but \"Blower\" NO! Chase high where it will be deep with a mix of cream cheese, mank, and medium to heavy density pow at the summits.
The highest snowfalls are likely to occur in the Sawtooths of Idaho (Sun Valley), Tetons of Wyoming, Northern Wasatch, and most of western Colorado favoring the South- Central or northwest mountains.
Moderate snow above 7,000 feet will be falling in Utah Tuesday night increasing on Wednesday. Favored resorts to chase will be Brighton (Does well with SW flow), Deer Valley (May suffer a bit due to lower elevation but the summit could score) and perhaps the summit of Park City (PC side versus the Canyons). The northern Wasatch near Snowbasin is a wildcard, however, the lower elevation of the base area may keep me away (Check the webcams Wednesday morning and temps). More snow is likely to the resorts further south. The summits of favored SW flow resorts mentioned above should score 6-17 inches by late Wednesday night (Storm ski the cream Wednesday with leftovers falling into Thursday albeit lighter). The high variance on totals is due to the temps at the bases with higher amounts of snow likely at the peaks. It may ride surfy down low, with some dense powder faceshots up high. That can sometimes be fun! If we get enough wind you may even encounter the sand paper faceshots (Also interesting).
In the Sawtooths and Tetons, light snow initially Tuesday will continue to add up through Thursday. It's likely that you may grab 2-5 inches every 12 hour period for the next 3 days with temps steady at near freezing at the bases with dense snow from mid-mountain spots, to perhaps slightly better quality at the summits. The summit of Sun Valley (Head to the bowls) and JHMR and Targhee may actually ski pretty well starting on Wednesday (Some warming may occur Thursday).
For Colorado, deeper amounts are likely due to higher elevations at many resorts. In looking at models I am most confident for the summit of Steamboat, Snowmass, Crested Butte by midday Wednesday. The southern areas, especially Crested Butte or Snowmass are likely to see the highest amounts. Plan to ride these areas late Wednesday or early Thursday. Areas in Summit or eastern Eagle County will see moderate amounts (Beaver Creek could edge out a surprise being on the western edge), especially for Thursday. Snow will continue Colorado into Thursday extending a bit further east into Summit and Eagle Counties. Thursday morning will be another powder day for most of central and northern Colorado with light snow at the bases and higher amounts at the summits (3-11 elevation dependant). Density will be on the high side. I am not as confident for significant snow for areas east of Eagle County with higher amounts further south or west. Summit will definitely see snow mid-Wednesday to Thursday but amounts are not giving me high confidence yet.
Below: Total snow through Saturday evening for Colorado. NOTE: Warm air initially this week will keep totals much less at lower elevations. This is a 4-5 day total. Initial moderate amounts will favor the central mountains (Steamboat could be a wildcard) with a better chance of higher amounts working further east into Summit and eastern Eagle County late week! Bottom Line: Significant snowfall will be likely in the next several days with quality improving late week.
EXTENDED FORECAST
Later this week, cooler air works in from Montana for much of the Rockies. It will drop the temps somewhat for additional snow for the Tetons, Wasatch, and Colorado late this week. Montana is a spot I am watching for Friday with cooler temps to the southern neighbors and a good chance of moderate snowfall for 1st chairs favoring the southern mountains. Elsewhere snow levels may drop to 6,000 feet and you may grab some moderate decent quality snow beginning in Utah Friday (Quick moving system with 5-10 inches) that hits Colorado for Saturday morning. You might be able to chase powder from Montana, Utah Friday to Colorado Saturday (Moderate amounts with some wildcard surprises on higher totals).
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Powderchaser Steve
