Summary:
The week ahead will feature significant moisture for the Cascades and western BC with slowly warming temperatures. The Sierra grabs a moderate storm on Wednesday with moderately high snow levels (6500-7,000 feet). The rest of the west looks pretty dry. New England scores a mixed bag on Tuesday followed by some snow for Wednesday.
Forecast:
The past 5 days has delivered close to forecast. Significant snow ended up falling in western Colorado with both Aspen and Crested Butte hitting targets. Steamboat also reported decent snowfall totals. The San Juan mountains north of Durango were also highlighted who did very well. Silverton is reporting 18 inches in the past 48 hours. Wolf Creek had similar amounts which well exceeded my forecast. The Sierra scored 3-5 feet above 7,000 feet (48 inches at Squaw in 4 days). In Utah, after epic dry powder Sunday the winds kicked in with force (55-70 MPH Gusts) on Monday and kept a good deal of steep terrain closed. Today will feature lots of openings but temperatures are warming so quality may lack, especially later in the day. Look for wind sheltered deep pockets on north-facing slopes (Most winds were from the SW or West direction).
The upcoming week will drag a significant amount of moisture to the Pacific Northwest. Peak snowfall for the Cascades will be Wednesday/Thursday with 12-15 inches of snow. The western range of WA will be very warm (50's in Seattle). Easterly winds will keep the mountain passes of WA cooler with 2,000-foot snow levels today warming to 4,000-5,000 mid-Wednesday. Easterly cool winds will erode by late Wednesday and Thursday (SW) bringing snow levels higher for Thursday. Your best bet will be the higher elevations of Crystal (All snow from mid-mountain to the summit), Mount Baker Summit, or some spots in eastern Washington. Quality Wednesday morning will be better than Thursday however amounts will be less. Whistler will see 10-18 inches above mid-mountain through Thursday. Higher amounts are possible!
Below: Significant upper elevation snow for western BC through Friday morning. The northern Cascades of WA are also favored above 4500 feet.
The Sierra is back in the headlines for snow early Wednesday through late Wednesday night. The northern Ranges of the Sierra are slightly favored. 6-12 inches will be likely above 7000 feet by late Wednesday. You can storm ski and perhaps grab openings on Thursday. Much lower amounts if any snow will be falling at the bases.
Below: CA by Midnight Wednesday.
New England also grabs some chowdah on Wednesday. Mixed rain and sleet today will usher in slightly cooler temps for Wednesday. The models are not in synch currently. My best guess is 2-5 inches for many areas and higher amounts likely in southern Vermont and northwestern Maine. Confidence is highest for northern Maine.
Below: One possible scenario for Wednesday in New England (Southern VT, N. Central Maine, NE Maine are highlighted). Most of New England will see snowfall on Wednesday.
Extended
The extended period will continue to see high pressure over the Rockies. I don't see anything noteworthy this week. That may continue well into the weekend. It's possible that storms return at some point the following week taking a southern track over CA. Its way to early to speculate. I will look at more details of the extended on my next post.
Powderchaser Steve
