Chase to New England for it's first \Tease\" of the season! Models have shifted moisture previously depicted bullseye over Boston for Thursday night further north. New England is going to grab it's first measurable snowfall for the season Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. Peak snowfall will be Thursday night with a passing cold front. Snow will begin as rain in the valleys and lower peaks Thursday quickly changing to snow at night. The peaks of many of the ski areas will stay snow through the entire event. Temps will be cold on Friday with snow showers at all elevations continuing on Friday. The low will be centered over NE Maine on Friday wtih higher amounts in those areas. Lowland locations will see light snowfall, slush on the roadways by Friday morning. This is a quick-moving system so amounts should stay on the moderate side.
Below: Trough forming over New England Thursday night with high pressure continuing for most of the west.
.png%5C%22)
Amounts at this time appear to be 3-7 inches for most mountain ranges of New England with a focus on central Vermont (Killington, Sugarbush on the northern edge of the highest moisture). Less will fall at the bases. The resorts of North Conway (Central New Hampshire) may also score similar amounts. Higher amounts, perhaps 5-10 inches may be found in northeast Maine with Sugarloaf a wildcard (Peak moisture seems to be just east of the Sugarloaf but its too far out to forecast).
Another cold front arrives in New England late Sunday/Monday with another round of light snow likely.
Below: Total snowfall with both storms for New England likely to approach 6-12 inches at the summits of many ski areas by Monday afternoon (Both systems).
.png%5C%22)
Rockies:
The models still depict light snowfall for both Alberta and interior BC. There is no single deep event. Confidence for even moderate amounts is weaning from the latest model runs. Temps stay cold in Canada and even most of Montana this week with light snow falling especially Tuesday night into Wednesday. Eastern Glacier National Park is favored in this pattern, with some light snow filtering south into Red Lodge Mountain and eventually northern Colorado by Wednesday (Flurries for Colorado).
The long-range models show the strong high pressure over the Rockies, PNW, and Sierra, weakening somewhat early next week. While the signals show weakening there are no signs of any weather systems worth speaking about. It appears that if any snow falls next week it might favor the eastern fringes of Montana or Wyoming. It's likely we will remain in a dry pattern. The signal for a November 18/19 timeframe shows a glimmer of hope for some snowfall, especially for the Rockies (Too far out to put much confidence just yet). Remember, that what falls early season has no correlation to what our winter is going to bring us. Just 1 or 2 large storms can be a game-changer.
ANNOUNCEMENT:
Don't forget to put your snow tires on! I personally use Bridgestone Blizzaks (Studless) and have done so for almost 20 years. Using snow tires versus even good All Season Radials can improve your stopping distance, allow you to make first chair with confidence (You know what I mean) and improve safety on the roadways.
Powderchaser Steve
