SUMMARY:
Light snow favoring northern New England Ski areas will be falling Wednesday night into Thursday. Much colder temps will follow this initial wave, with another light or moderate event for late Sunday/Monday. The ridge in the west has a good chance of weakening in the extended forecast with snow likely returning to some areas by the middle or end of next week. Even the Sierra may begin to see snowfall in the 7-14 day forecast but its way too far out to have confidence just yet. I'm trying to push some wishful thinking in this forecast.
NEW ENGLAND
Models continue to push moisture into New England late Wednesday night into Thursday. The latest runs came in slightly weaker (2-6 inches) and further north than even yesterday mornings runs. Areas of central and northern Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine should grab generally 2-5 inches with the higher amounts at the summits. Southern resorts will see less. Winds shift from SW to NW as the fast moving trough that could kick off some orographic enhancement especially over Stowe or areas north to Jay Peak. Look for some wildcard higher amounts in these areas.
Another cold front moves into New England late Sunday night into Monday with looks to be a repeat from the current system. The system next week may push further south bringing a wider area of snowfall. The extended shows yet another system that may push into all metro areas of Boston, Cape Cod midweek.
WEST
Light snows continue in the interior of BC (No single deep event) that may ramp up slightly for the weekend. That system pushes quickly south with some cold air this weekend pushing south into Montana and even Colorado by Sunday night. Some snow in central Montana should push south into Colorado by Monday (Front Range). Amounts will be light. The extended shows some hope for the west as the ridge attempts to weaken.
Below: Total snowfall through Tuesday next week focussing on New England, Midwest, and the eastern or central areas of Montana, Wyoming and Colorado (Light). Both storms in New England may produce 5-11 inches by Tuesday with more in the extended.
Below: Cooler air filtering into the Rockies next Tuesday/Wednesday.
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EXTENDED
The ensembles are increasing confidence on the ridge weakening in the west. Slowly, the strong dominant high will begin to break down initially favoring the eastern Rockies. Colorado may see another teasing event for many mountain areas towards the middle to end of next week (Light or moderate possible- Low confidence being 7 days away). Cooler air is also noted above.
The longer range pattern shows promise of the ridge breaking down even further towards the November 17-20 timeframe. While operational models are with low confidence beyond 7-10 days, some signals point to several systems moving ashore into the Sierra at some point mid to late November (Low confidence at this point).
Below: November 20 timestamp. Ridge is weakening in the west.
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Bottom Line: Increased odds of snowfall for the west as the ridge slowly retreats towards the November 17th timeframe or beyond. Keep your snow dance going! Remember, early season snows do not predict what will happen or where your best and deepest runs will be this winter. Some have already had some deep runs (Lucky ones). Chase powder and you will score! We have never had a dry season. Please join our Concierge powder program or make a donation to support our forecasts.
Powderchaser Steve
