OVERVIEW:
The high-pressure ridge over the west is heavily entrenched pushing light to occasionally moderate snow showers into Canada this week. No single deep event. Those systems will dive down on the backside of the ridge into the midwest tracking over the east coast this week. Significant snow is possible in some spots of New England on the extended forecast. This roller coaster pattern (High- pressure pushing moisture north into Canada and then back down into the Midwest is going to continue until at least mid-November if not longer.
FORECAST
Light snow showers will persist over interior BC early this week (No single deep event). The ridge in the west will retreat slightly south midweek bringing a better chance of snow showers to the northern areas of Montana (Glacier National Park) with some moisture possible in Wyoming midweek (Perhaps Red Lodge Mountain scores a few more flakes). We have little confidence in any significant snowfall as much of the energy will be just east of many ski areas. New England may also see some light snow showers at the upper peaks of the northern mountains early this week.
The real story for powder is in the extended, but primarily for the east coast.
Below: The ensembles for this week point to most of the energy pushed north over the interior of Canada (Edging into Alberta and perhaps eastern BC), central Montana, and eventually interior Wyoming). Most of the snowfall will be light trending moderate late this week over Alberta or BC (No single deep event).
EXTENDED
Models differ significantly this morning for a storm we are watching for New England late this week. The Euro is bullish and places good energy and moisture into southern New England (CT, MA, Southern NH, Southern VT). Boston could be a bullseye if the Euro proves correct (6-12). On the other hand, both the Canadian and GFS are pushing out much lighter amounts. Within the next few days, let's hope for better models consensus since we are still 5 days out. There is decent confidence that snow will be falling over southern New England this week primarily late Thursday to Friday night but low confidence on amounts. Cold air will be entrenched over the lowlands so many areas will see the 1st snow of the season.
Another storm is likely for New England at some point the following week (Tuesday timeframe) that might push higher amounts into the central or northern mountains.
For the west, the ensembles show some weakening of the high-pressure ridge possible around November 12th or 13th. The signal is not strong, nor is there any indication of any troughs moving through so my optimism remains subdued at this point.
Below; The Euro (Bullish) is showing a decent low-pressure trough over New England early Friday pulling moisture from the south into many areas (South is favored)
Below: Another system might draw snowfall further north into many areas of New England around November 12/13 early next week. The ridge in the west is weakening somewhat possibly retreating further south and west (No indication of a trough at this point).
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Powderchaser Steve
