A major winter storm will hammer the Andes this week, dropping 1-2+ feet at resorts in the region from Wednesday to Friday. The best resorts for chasing deep totals will be Corralco, Pucon, and Caviahue. Snow levels will vary significantly, meaning some resorts will end up with a messy mix of rain, sleet, and snow. Temperatures will steadily decrease over the course of the storm, so the best odds for high quality snow will be towards the end of the storm. Keep in mind that the forecasts below are for mid-mountain elevations, and precipitation type and totals can change drastically higher or lower on the mountains.
During the day on Wednesday, many resorts will see rain up to mid-elevations. Not an ideal ski day, but if you are planning to get out, be sure to stick to higher elevations where you have better odds of snowfall.
Snowfall will begin at resorts on Wednesday night. The best odds for snowfall will be in the northern Andes - Las Leñas, Portillo, and Valle Nevado/El Colorado/La Parva - due to their higher elevations. Isolated high elevation resorts further south (like Corralco and Caviahue) could also pick up some decent totals. By the time lifts are spinning on Thursday morning, we expect 3-6” (7-15cm) at northern resorts, 4-7” (10-18cm) at Corralco, and 1-3” (2.5-7cm) at Caviahue. Cerro Catedral could pick up an inch or two, and other resorts down south could see a dusting on top of the rain/sleet affected top layer close to the morning if temperatures and moisture levels allow.
Above: total snowfall by Thursday morning. Notice most of the initial snow further north and the spotty snowfall in the south, relegated to higher elevations, indicating the warm initial push of moisture.
Thursday will bring colder and snowier conditions.
During the ski day, decent snowfall rates and moderate winds will allow for nice refills throughout the day. Between resort opening and closing times, here are projected totals:
- Northern resorts (Portillo, Las Leñas, Valle Nevado): 1-4” (2-10cm)
- Central resorts (Caviahue, Pucon, Corralco): 4-7” (10-18cm)
- Southern resorts (Chapelco, Cerro Bayo, Cerro Catedral): 1-2” (2-5cm)
Thursday night will see temperatures drop even further and the precipitation shift to the south, with just a dusting falling at the northern resorts. Caviahue, Corralco, and Pucon are all going to be good chase targets for great snow conditions. We can see 4-8” (10-20cm) at Caviahue and Pucon and over a foot (30+ cm) overnight at Corralco. We are looking for 2-4” (5-10cm) for Chapelco, Cerro Bayo, and Cerro Catedral. Many resorts will be in the 10-13:1 snow-to-liquid ratio range, meaning this snow won’t be blower powder, but it’s certainly not concrete either.
Above: Thursday night projected snowfall, with the bullseye sitting on Corralco.
Snowfall will have tapered off by Friday morning, with a few residual showers bringing an extra dusting in the morning.
Above: storm total snowfall by Friday morning showing healthy totals through the week.
Looking ahead, things are looking high and dry for a while. High pressure may break to bring in some light snow next week, likely Tuesday-Wednesday-Thursday. This won’t be anything major, but it does look like this small storm could bring some colder temperatures with it. Beyond that, global ensembles are indicating unsettled weather returning on Sunday, August 20 and lasting into the week. It’s still extremely far out and a lot could change in the meantime, but it’s encouraging that it has such strong ensemble support this far out. Something to keep an eye on, but don’t get your hopes up just yet. Below is the 15 day forecast from a 103 member ensemble. Blue is a rough proxy for stormier conditions, and orange/red is associated with dry and often warm conditions:
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