As of Saturday morning the Rockies scored decent leftovers from the storm that recently brought snow to the Pacific Northwest. The Tetons scored the highest totals, specifically Grand Targhee who picked up 8-10 inches on Friday night.
Below: Grand Targhee grabbed some decent freshies on Friday night!
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Below: Park City had decent totals Friday night, especially on the Canyons side who does best with NW flow.
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS AIMED AT THE BC MOUNTAIN RANGES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY PUSHING SOUTH INTO WASHINGTON, IDAHO AND OREGON SUNDAY/MONDAY. 12-28 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
The next in the series of 2 storms we are watching will reach BC Saturday night and Sunday (Storm #1). The western resorts such as Whistler should grab 9-14 inches at the summit and lower totals at the base by Sunday morning. A quick moving warm front Saturday night will take snow levels to just above the base of Whistler Saturday night before falling to the village again Sunday. Mt. Baker Ski Area has not made any announcements for Opening Day as of Saturday evening, but we suspect they will open after this next wave of snow given the good coverage they have at upper elevations.
Below: Snow levels in Canada jump to 3,000 feet Saturday night but lower Sunday morning as shown in the map (2,000 foot snow level). Warmer air remains over Washington and Oregon Sunday.
Below: BC and Alberta resorts will be in double digits on Sunday morning with the highest totals over Whistler and the north coast mountain ranges (30 plus CM noted for Whistler by early Sunday (lower totals at the base). The inland areas near Revelstoke will also pick up respectable totals (15 CM). We think double digits are likely for all areas, especially by Sunday night with snow continuing albeit lighter intensity (Cooling trend).
Here are few projected snow totals in the PNW and Canada through Wednesday November 20
Revelstoke: 16 inches
Fernie: 15 inches
Whistler: 15-30 inches (mid to summit) (Blackcomb Opening Day November 21)
Stevens Pass: 20-30 inches
Mt Baker Ski Area: 22-35 inches (mid to summit)
Crystal Mountain: 20-25 inches
Mt. Bachelor: 30-40 inches (OPEN)
Selkirk Powder Guides (Idaho) 24 inches
Below: The Cascades of northern Washington will see the highest totals by Sunday morning with a warm front and very strong SW winds. Snow levels creep up to near the base of Mt Baker (Could be a wet snow/rain mix at 3200) with even warmer temps noted for the central and southern Cascades (5K snow level). Snowfall totals will be decent for the north Cascades Saturday night into Sunday (6-10 of dense snow) with much less as you travel south due to warming and less precipitation towards I-90 or south to Crystal and Oregon.
Below: Snow filling in further south over Washington and Oregon from Sunday afternoon to Monday. Significant totals are possible with better snow ratios, colder temps, and westerly flow (Convergence Zones might help the I-90 resorts including Stevens). Oregon resorts are going to see significant totals by Monday morning (10-18).
Below: Snowfall by Monday morning has spread over Idaho and is just impacting the Tetons. Selkirk Powder Guides could be deep by Monday morning as well as the Idaho Panhandle with western resorts near McCall solid wildcards. We'll Keep an eye on Tamarack and Brundage! Snow has just began accumulating in the Tetons.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Below: Alta ensembles from the University of Utah show another boost of snowfall from Monday night to Tuesday morning next week with roughly six additional inches (Similar to the last storm).
Below: Total 2-day Precipitation ending Tuesday morning (November 19). Higher water totals are showing up again for the Tetons (3/4 to 1 inch) and perhaps southern Montana, with roughly .03-.05 inches of water for the Wasatch (3-7 inches of snow). Some resorts should be able to eke out 6-11 inches.
Midweek storm (November 20-21)
Yet another robust system enters the West mid-next week (November 20ish) and brings another good shot of snowfall to many areas, favoring the PNW and perhaps even the Sierra. This storm will be colder!
Below: 2 Day total snowfall with the midweek storm (November 20-21) per the GFS. This model keeps most of the action along a similar path as the last one (Northern areas)
Below: The European model pushes the midweek storm further south into the northern Sierra. We need to narrow in the models a bit more.
The bottom line is that deep powder returns to the PNW and western BC mid-next week with colder temps (High quality). I am very confident you can look for some new ski area openings next week in the PNW.
For chasing powder, we like BC for the colder temps Sunday. We like the Cascades with the colder air Sunday night to Monday including Idaho and Oregon. The Tetons could surprise again for Monday AM through PM (Westerly flow might be better for JHMR). The Wasatch grabs another moderate teaser with Colorado on the squeezed out end of deepness (Lower totals).
Below: Total water precipitation per the GFS from Saturday November 16 to Wednesday November 20th. The European (Not shown), digs a bit more towards the Sierra (We shall see). The PNW and areas of Canada are grabbing 2-4 inches of water (20-40 inches of snow). Idaho will also score, especially the Panhandle and northern areas with western regions not far behind. The Tetons look good also.
Please check out Selkirk Powder Guides with their new cat accessed backcountry terrain this season. This is shaping out to an excellent season thus far. They offer backcountry touring and avalanche safety classes in the Idaho Selkirk Mountain ranges.
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Powderchaser Steve @powderchasersteve
