Summary 11/7/18


Light snow is continuing Wednesday night in the northern Rockies. Montana and Wyoming will see another round of light snow through Thursday morning. It's possible that another 2-4 inches accumulate from the Missoula mountains extending south to Big Sky. The Tetons may see an inch at best. Light snow returns for a final push in the northern Rockies including the Front Range of Denver on Friday/Saturday. New England is a wildcard for heavy snow this weekend (Upper elevations) but a sure bet for the middle of next week.

Short Term Forecast

Light snow will continue in the northern Rockies, especially into Thursday morning near Missoula extending to Big Sky.  After a break on Friday, the last wave of low pressure drops down from Canada on Saturday.  This will kick off light to moderate bands of snow for most of north/central Montana Saturday morning extending from Kalispell, Missoula, and eventually Bozeman and Red Lodge Mountain.  That system moves just east of the Tetons (Light snow is possible) and into the Front Range of Colorado for early Sunday morning.   I am not expecting any significant amounts.  There may be some isolated 3-6 inch totals at the Montana Wyoming border.  As I said in an earlier post \"The caboose is in sight for the Rockies while the snow train may arrive for New England\" Below: Total snowfall from Wednesday afternoon to Sunday afternoon for the Rockies.  Light snow in most areas with the exception of heavier amounts at the WY/MT border.  It's possible that Red Lodge Mountain ski area or just west,  see the higher amounts, however with NW winds they may come up short (NE winds are better for Red Lodge).


Extended Forecast

Rain and moderate mountain snow are likely in New England Friday night-Saturday.  2 low-pressure systems push both a warm front from the south and colder air streaming from there north.  Trapped cold air between the 2 fronts will bring a mixed precipitation event to most of the lower elevations of ski areas in Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine.  the favored locations for snowfall will be from the White Mountains of NH through the central and northern areas of Maine. Snow levels will climb to 2,000 feet Friday night and drop considerably on Saturday.  Most of the Precipitation will have fallen by the time the coldest air arrives mid to late Saturday.  Cooler air will most likely accompany this event in northern Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.   Mount Washington will see heavy snowfall by late Saturday.  Ski areas with higher elevations like Wildcat and Sugarloaf may be safer bets for Saturday morning (closed). My best guess is 0-7 inches for many northern or eastern ski areas (0 designates the base). The peaks will see the highest amounts favoring NH or Maine. Massif Du Sud in Canada may score higher amount with the cooler temperatures. Central Vermont,  per the EURO models still show moderate snow at the summits where the GFS is most bullish for NH and Maine. Below: Total snowfall in New England through Saturday (GFS).  The Euro which I am not sharing on this post is more bullish (Deeper).
Below: 2500 foot freezing levels late Friday night into early Saturday,  with some colder air noted in Maine.  Rain is likely at the bases of most ski areas until mid or late Saturday. Maine may see some exceptions up north especially near the Canadian border
Its likely that several inches may fall at the summits with 0-2 inches at the bases.  Hey, this almost sounds like a Pacific Northwest forecast huh? Stevens Pass in Washington just nabbed some decent snowfall at the summit (0-1 at the base). Colder air and westerly winds late Saturday may bring some post frontal snow showers to lower elevations Saturday night. This may favor interior Vermont and New Hampshire with snow showers continuing into Sunday.  Sunday will be significantly colder with ideal snow making conditions. Below: Colder air is entrenched into New England by mid day Saturday (Freezing level is below 2500 in most areas).
Another low-pressure system will push up the coast in the middle of next week.  This has the potential to bring a more significant snow event to most mountains of New England.  This system impacts the area primarily early Tuesday to early Wednesday.  Some warm air is showing up on the models below 2500 feet late Tuesday,  so it's possible a mixed rain/snow will fall below 1500 feet (Actual snow level pushes down 1,000 feet below the freezing level).  Resorts that are further inland or north may see the highest amounts.  The models are showing up to 2 feet or more for Mount Washington and 12-18 inches for many ski resorts.  It's way too early to be forecasting amounts accurately, so stay tuned to a future post of the Chase Powder forecast.   I tend to be a bit optimistic at times.
Please follow Powderchasers on Facebook and Instagram!  Below: The pure optimistic model of total snowfall for the next 7 days (Including storm 1 this weekend). The 33 inches designates the Mount Washington Observatory.  Image: WX Bell GFS

Powderchaser Steve

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