We are starting to see the large scale pattern shift. Before we get to where we ultimately want to be, we're going to have to deal with some a weird storm track. This will produce some snow in the short term, but our eyes are still on the last week of the month.
Over the next several days the northern rockies will see some decent snow totals as a storm moves across the intermountain west. Montana, Colorado, and Wyoming will get some much needed snow. This storm will then get absorbed into an upper level cut off low, which is a little bit funky. It will result in a storm that basically moves from East to West, opposite to the direction that storms typically move. Nevertheless, this will bring snow to New Mexico and FINALLY some snow for Arizona. If you want more details to chase this weirdness, reach out to us here at the powder concierge.
Alyeska is about to go off too. They're approaching 500\" for the season and have a base of over 100\". We were considering a chase there but we have never been, and there are too many unknowns. They will likely get another 1-2 FEET from the storm Monday into Tuesday. Jealous.
We are transitioning out of the warm and wet Pacific Northwest pattern, and into a more ideal winter pattern. Below is the GFS ensemble five day average 500mb anomaly ending January 29th. This shows where the storm track will likely be during this period.
(image courtesy of Weatherbell)
This is what we've been looking for. Not this nonsense happening over the next few days:
(image courtesy of Weatherbell)
We'll also show the five day snowfall ending January 29th from the GFS. This ensemble tends smooth out the higher end totals, so even more so is possible during this period:
(image courtesy of Weatherbell)
Hopefully, and it looks like this could be the case, this storm track sticks around for a bit. It's a pattern that would bring much needed snow to the areas outside of the PNW that are well below average so far this season.
That's all for today. Check out @lstone84 on instagram and stay tuned for more updates on the upcoming wintry pattern.
Powderchaser Luke
