Grab some powder now, before we go into high pressure early next week. Warm temperatures are dominating the west on Friday with much colder temps due for the weekend. Some areas of the west could see 12-18 inches of new snow.
The chase yesterday (Thursday) was tricky with strong winds in the Wasatch early, colder temps in the Tetons, and near double digits in many areas of Utah and Wyoming. The cold portion of the storm came into the Tetons on Wednesday (PM storm skiing at Targhee would have been epic), with roughly 8 inches falling from 11 AM to 4 PM (Wednesday).
Warmer air moved into the west Wednesday night, with storm totals by Thursday morning in the 13-inch range for the Tetons. I chased to JHMR Wednesday night, staging in Pocatello, Idaho, for a 4 AM chase to the Tetons. As suspected, most of the mountain had storm totals from late Wednesday to Thursday) with roughly 9-12 inches in many areas (The wind had filled in Rendezvous Bowl).
Snow quality was anywhere from blower to funk. The slight warming trend from Wednesday to Thursday brought some upside-down layers that wanted to grab your tips (Even my snowboard). Reports from the Wasatch show that the Cottonwoods approached double digits by mid-Thursday morning, the winds eased, and the temperatures warmed even further (32 at the base of Alta). I think Colorado would have been a good chase that benefited from the higher elevation and cooler temps (5-11 inches of new snow).
The next 3 days offer some opportunities to chase double digits. Get it now!
Friday: PNW snow increases late in the morning, moving from Oregon to Washington. The Tetons are grabbing snow early Friday morning (5 inches thus far at mid-morning for Targhee and JHMR) with warming (A mix of rain possible in Jackson while Targhee stays all snow). Mid to Upper Mountain will surf some fun cream on Friday. Saturday will be colder with better quality.
Saturday: New snow in the Sierra (Overnight). Chase north for the highest totals and west of the Lake (8-13). 3-5 inches likely for Mammoth (Colder temps will bring good quality after the winds decrease by late Friday night).
Storm ski double digits in Utah (I-2 inch per hour snowfall rates) with snow beginning near 4-5 AM (the last chair will be better than the first chair). The Tetons see another 3-7 inches (colder storm) early Saturday morning. The PNW sees an increase in snowfall late Saturday, favoring Washington and the Panhandle of Idaho (Sunday powder day). Bridger Bowl and Big Sky grab 5-10 inches for Saturday morning.
Sunday: New 5-10 inches for the Cascades (Washington favored), moderate snow for Whistler. New terrain openings in Utah from 7-15 inches that fall on Saturday. Colorado grabs light to moderate totals from Saturday night to Sunday (Overnight pow), favoring the western areas of I-70 (Good timing). Steamboat might deliver higher totals.
You could chase from MT, UT, or WY to Colorado for Sunday (Light to moderate totals).
Below: Unseasonably warm temperatures (20 Degrees above normal), dominate the west on Friday (near freezing at 10K feet). The sun and warming Friday could pose some issues for the cold powder on Saturday (Deeper dust on some crust). Wyoming ski areas are grabbing surf pow on Friday, so perhaps the colder tease on Saturday rides a bit better (no sun). The cold front is just offshore on this map.
Below: Much colder air streams east Friday night (Sierra) and hits the Rockies by Saturday morning. This cold front will be responsible for some decent snow totals in many areas (Temperatures are -10C (14F) at 10K) of the west.
Below Total snowfall (10:1) for Saturday morning. The Sierra stands the highest odds of deeper powder for 1st chairs, especially resorts in the central to northern regions of the Lake (8-12 above 7,000 feet). I expect only 1-3 inches at Lake Level. The panhandle of Idaho also shows decent totals, with moderate amounts noted in the Tetons (Combined snow from Friday/Saturday). Utah is just starting to see snowfall early Saturday. Montana has already scored powder on Saturday morning (Whitefish, Big Sky, Bridger Bowl).
Below: American GFS deterministic models ending 11 PM Saturday—Snow is generally 6-12 inches for most of Utah (Strom ski) and 12-17 for the Cottonwoods. Snow is just beginning in Colorado by midday Saturday and continues into the night (Light to moderate amounts).
Below: The short-term HRR runs are bullish on snow totals for northern Utah during the day on Saturday, with double digits noted in many areas (Northern and Central Wasatch). Totals include any snow that falls on Friday (MT, WY). If you want to escape the crowds, consider Beaver Mountain in northern Utah.
Below: University of Utah ensemble plumes show an average of nearly 10 inches for the Tony Grove Snow site near Beaver Mountain in northern Utah.
Below: Ensembles show poor agreement with the European (Pink) and American models (Blue), with anywhere from 10 to 20 inches for the summit of Park City. It is reasonable that PCMR grabs 7-10 inches with 9-14 inches for the Canyons side (it does best with NW flow).
Below: Big Sky ensembles show a quick jump to 10 inches by midnight Saturday (January 4) and some additional snow continuing into next week (Slow ramp up). Montana grabs the snow very late Friday night.
Below: Stevens Pass shows both storms (5 inches on Friday) bumping up to totals of 12 inches for Sunday (2 waves). I think the 2nd surge on Saturday PM will be the better one.
Below: Vail Pass shows possible totals of 5-7 inches on Saturday PM /Sunday with a slow ramp-up of lighter snow in the extended period.
EXTENDED POW CAST
Another system moves west of the Rockies and digs south into the Baja early next week. This will bring some snowfall back into central Nevada and skim areas of Utah and Colorado. It might also get a tease to southern regions. High Pressure takes grip beyond this system until perhaps January 12/13.
Below: Low-pressure drops south over the Baja, bringing light snow to the central and southern Rockies (Utah and Colorado) along with central Nevada.
Below: 24-hour snow totals from Monday morning to Tuesday morning (January 7) next week. Maybe the Ruby Mountains in Nevada?
Below: We enter a period of high pressure in the west after Tuesday next week, perhaps until January 13th, when the models signal a chance of low pressure returning to the west. (The Map run is January 11-13.) There appear to be two lows in the latter portion of this map (South and north).
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Powderchaser Steve @powderchasersteve
